Author: Matt Crosby Compiled by: AididiaoJP, Foresight News The Bitcoin bear market may be over sooner than expected, with the Fibonacci retracement level having fallen below the 350-day moving average and touched a key Fibonacci support level. The current area is an accumulation zone. Bitcoin has historically struggled to maintain a consistent correlation with gold, recently only moving in tandem during market downturns. However, examining Bitcoin's price through the lens of gold rather than the US dollar provides a more comprehensive understanding of the current market cycle. By measuring Bitcoin's true purchasing power relative to comparable assets like gold, we can identify potential support levels and determine when a bear market cycle might be ending. The Bitcoin bear market has officially begun after breaking through key support levels. When Bitcoin broke below its 350-day moving average of around $100,000 and the key six-figure psychological level, it effectively entered bear market territory, and the price immediately fell by about 20%. From a technical analysis perspective, a price drop below the "golden ratio multiplier" moving average is generally considered a signal of entering a bear market, but the situation is more interesting when priced in gold rather than the US dollar. Figure 1: Historically, when BTC falls below the 350-day moving average, it coincides with the start of a bear market. Bitcoin's price action against gold differs significantly from its action against the US dollar. Bitcoin has fallen over 50% since peaking in December 2024, while its peak in dollar terms occurred in October 2025, far below the previous year's high. This discrepancy suggests that Bitcoin may have already entered a bear market, and for longer than most people believe. Looking back at historical bear market cycles for Bitcoin in gold terms, the current pullback may be approaching a key support level. Figure 2: When priced in gold terms, BTC had already fallen below the 350-day moving average as early as August. The bottom of the 2015 bear market cycle occurred after an 86% drop lasting 406 days; the 2017 cycle lasted 364 days with an 84% drop; and the previous bear market saw a 76% drop lasting 399 days. As of the time of this analysis, Bitcoin, priced in gold, has fallen 51% in 350 days. Although the percentage decline has gradually decreased with the growth of Bitcoin's market capitalization and the inflow of market funds, this mainly reflects increased institutional participation and a decrease in Bitcoin supply, rather than a fundamental change in the cyclical pattern. Figure 3: The price trend of BTC in gold terms shows that this bear market may be 90% complete. Multi-period indicators suggest that the bottom of the Bitcoin bear market is near. In addition to observing the magnitude and duration of declines, Fibonacci retracement levels spanning multiple cycles can provide more accurate judgments. Analyzing historical cycle bottoms to tops using Fibonacci tools reveals a clear overlap of levels. Figure 4: The bottoms of previous bear markets have all aligned with key Fibonacci retracement levels. During the 2015-2018 cycle, the bear market bottom occurred at the 0.618 Fibonacci level, corresponding to approximately 2.56 ounces of gold per Bitcoin; the bottom of the 2018-2022 cycle fell precisely at the 0.5 level, corresponding to approximately 9.74 ounces of gold per Bitcoin. The latter became an important resistance-turned-support level in the subsequent bull market. Converting the golden ratio to dollar price targets From the low of the last bear market to the high of this bull market, the 0.618 Fibonacci level corresponds to approximately 22.81 ounces of gold per Bitcoin, and the 0.5 level corresponds to 19.07 ounces. The current price is between these two levels, potentially forming an ideal accumulation zone from a purchasing power perspective. Figure 5: By predicting the low point of BTC against gold using Fibonacci levels and then converting it to the US dollar price, we can infer the possible bottom area of Bitcoin. Multiple Fibonacci levels across different timeframes are converging: the current 0.786 level (approximately 21.05 ounces of gold) corresponds to about $89,160 for Bitcoin; the previous 0.618 level again points to around $80,000. If it falls further, the next key technical target is around $67,000, corresponding to the 0.382 Fibonacci level (approximately 15.95 ounces of gold per Bitcoin). Conclusion: The Bitcoin bear market may be 90% complete. Measured against assets like gold, Bitcoin's purchasing power has been declining since December 2024, and the bear market has lasted far longer than analysis based solely on USD pricing suggests. Cross-period Fibonacci retracement levels, converted to USD, indicate strong support in the $67,000-$80,000 range. While this analysis is theoretical and actual price action may not perfectly align, the convergence of data across multiple timeframes and valuation frameworks suggests that the bear market may end sooner than the market anticipates.Author: Matt Crosby Compiled by: AididiaoJP, Foresight News The Bitcoin bear market may be over sooner than expected, with the Fibonacci retracement level having fallen below the 350-day moving average and touched a key Fibonacci support level. The current area is an accumulation zone. Bitcoin has historically struggled to maintain a consistent correlation with gold, recently only moving in tandem during market downturns. However, examining Bitcoin's price through the lens of gold rather than the US dollar provides a more comprehensive understanding of the current market cycle. By measuring Bitcoin's true purchasing power relative to comparable assets like gold, we can identify potential support levels and determine when a bear market cycle might be ending. The Bitcoin bear market has officially begun after breaking through key support levels. When Bitcoin broke below its 350-day moving average of around $100,000 and the key six-figure psychological level, it effectively entered bear market territory, and the price immediately fell by about 20%. From a technical analysis perspective, a price drop below the "golden ratio multiplier" moving average is generally considered a signal of entering a bear market, but the situation is more interesting when priced in gold rather than the US dollar. Figure 1: Historically, when BTC falls below the 350-day moving average, it coincides with the start of a bear market. Bitcoin's price action against gold differs significantly from its action against the US dollar. Bitcoin has fallen over 50% since peaking in December 2024, while its peak in dollar terms occurred in October 2025, far below the previous year's high. This discrepancy suggests that Bitcoin may have already entered a bear market, and for longer than most people believe. Looking back at historical bear market cycles for Bitcoin in gold terms, the current pullback may be approaching a key support level. Figure 2: When priced in gold terms, BTC had already fallen below the 350-day moving average as early as August. The bottom of the 2015 bear market cycle occurred after an 86% drop lasting 406 days; the 2017 cycle lasted 364 days with an 84% drop; and the previous bear market saw a 76% drop lasting 399 days. As of the time of this analysis, Bitcoin, priced in gold, has fallen 51% in 350 days. Although the percentage decline has gradually decreased with the growth of Bitcoin's market capitalization and the inflow of market funds, this mainly reflects increased institutional participation and a decrease in Bitcoin supply, rather than a fundamental change in the cyclical pattern. Figure 3: The price trend of BTC in gold terms shows that this bear market may be 90% complete. Multi-period indicators suggest that the bottom of the Bitcoin bear market is near. In addition to observing the magnitude and duration of declines, Fibonacci retracement levels spanning multiple cycles can provide more accurate judgments. Analyzing historical cycle bottoms to tops using Fibonacci tools reveals a clear overlap of levels. Figure 4: The bottoms of previous bear markets have all aligned with key Fibonacci retracement levels. During the 2015-2018 cycle, the bear market bottom occurred at the 0.618 Fibonacci level, corresponding to approximately 2.56 ounces of gold per Bitcoin; the bottom of the 2018-2022 cycle fell precisely at the 0.5 level, corresponding to approximately 9.74 ounces of gold per Bitcoin. The latter became an important resistance-turned-support level in the subsequent bull market. Converting the golden ratio to dollar price targets From the low of the last bear market to the high of this bull market, the 0.618 Fibonacci level corresponds to approximately 22.81 ounces of gold per Bitcoin, and the 0.5 level corresponds to 19.07 ounces. The current price is between these two levels, potentially forming an ideal accumulation zone from a purchasing power perspective. Figure 5: By predicting the low point of BTC against gold using Fibonacci levels and then converting it to the US dollar price, we can infer the possible bottom area of Bitcoin. Multiple Fibonacci levels across different timeframes are converging: the current 0.786 level (approximately 21.05 ounces of gold) corresponds to about $89,160 for Bitcoin; the previous 0.618 level again points to around $80,000. If it falls further, the next key technical target is around $67,000, corresponding to the 0.382 Fibonacci level (approximately 15.95 ounces of gold per Bitcoin). Conclusion: The Bitcoin bear market may be 90% complete. Measured against assets like gold, Bitcoin's purchasing power has been declining since December 2024, and the bear market has lasted far longer than analysis based solely on USD pricing suggests. Cross-period Fibonacci retracement levels, converted to USD, indicate strong support in the $67,000-$80,000 range. While this analysis is theoretical and actual price action may not perfectly align, the convergence of data across multiple timeframes and valuation frameworks suggests that the bear market may end sooner than the market anticipates.