Bitcoin’s ‘Most Emotional’ Bear Market Phase Has Officially Begun: Analyst

Bitcoin (BTC) staged a late Sunday rebound following several days of downward price action, though signs suggest the market has not reached a true recovery.

Doctor Profit believes the crypto asset has moved into Stage 5 of his six-stage bear market framework, a period marked by intense emotional pressure.

Biggest Bear Market Trap

According to his latest market analysis, the brief plunge below $60,000 was not the ultimate bottom but rather a “trapdoor” into this next phase of the bear market. Doctor Profit explained that many traders have mistakenly concluded that the worst is over, similar to previous market cycles where investors regained confidence too early before another major decline.

The analyst continues to view the area between $40,000 and $48,000 as Bitcoin’s final bottom, which he refers to as the “Confirmed BlackRock Bottom” because it coincides with the price region where BlackRock launched its spot Bitcoin ETF back in early 2024.

The $60,000 level remains an important technical support zone in the short term for the crypto asset. As long as that support holds, Bitcoin could potentially stage a rebound toward the $65,000-$66,000 range before resuming its broader downward trend. However, the analyst stressed that Bitcoin rarely moves in a straight line and that countertrend rallies are common during bear markets.

Looking further ahead, Doctor Profit expects Stage 5 to be defined by sharp price swings, as Bitcoin would repeatedly see violent drops below $60,000 followed by equally strong recoveries above that level, creating difficult conditions for both bullish and bearish traders. He said this phase is designed to inflict maximum emotional pressure on market participants before a final bottom is established.

Despite the expected volatility, he does not anticipate the bear market ending quickly and continues to project that Bitcoin’s ultimate low will likely form between September and October 2026. He also expects a major market event, similar to the role played by the FTX collapse in the previous cycle, to act as the final catalyst that accelerates the capitulation phase and catches many investors off guard.

Bitcoin Isn’t the Only Bet

A mix of spot Bitcoin ETF outflows, Strategy’s recent BTC sale, and geopolitical tensions have weighed tremendously on the crypto asset. After prices recovered near $63,000, Michael Saylor hinted at another Strategy BTC purchase by posting the firm’s acquisition tracker with his “add more dots” message.

Beyond the recent price action, Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan believes that this crypto winter is unfolding differently from previous bear markets. Investors are not simply rotating into the largest cryptocurrency for safety. Instead, capital is increasingly flowing toward smaller digital assets with stronger fundamentals and clear revenue models.

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