Galaxy Digital Cuts Odds of Crypto Market Bill Passing in 2026

• Following last year’s passage of the CLARITY Act in the House, a number of senators have been urging their chamber to do the same.
• The bill still requires floor discussion, an amendment process, reconciliation with the Senate Agriculture language, and finally House agreement on the amendments.

The cryptocurrency firm Galaxy Digital has reduced the likelihood that the Senate will adopt its measure to regulate the cryptocurrency market before the year ends. The firm has pointed out that legislators have a limited amount of time to act on the bill.

The head of research at Galaxy, Alex Thorn, made the announcement in a post on Friday. He added that on May 22, the chance of the CLARITY Act becoming law in 2026 was boosted from 55% to 75%. This change was made after the morning of May 14’s Senate Banking markup. That prediction has been revised down to 60%.

Prospects Over Election-Year Delays

According to Thorn, “after that, the window effectively closes” and the measure has to be passed by the Senate before the month-long August break that begins in late July. He elaborated by saying that politicians have a history of stalling on big bills in the weeks leading up to the midterm elections so they can focus on campaigning.

Following last year’s passage of the CLARITY Act in the House, a number of senators have been urging their chamber to do the same. Versions of the measure have been approved by the Senate Banking and Agriculture Committees; now it need 60 votes on the Senate floor to succeed without extensive discussion.

According to Thorn, Majority Leader [John] Thune should arrange floor time for a 60-vote measure sometime in July. The bill still requires floor discussion, an amendment process, reconciliation with the Senate Agriculture language, and finally House agreement on the amendments. He also said that the procedural stages won’t work if something happens after the interval.

Galaxy reduced its chances, according to Thorn, in part because there is no evidence that the law or talks around it have progressed, and in particular because elements pertaining to ethics and illegal financing remain unresolved.

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