XRP Price: Down 68% From Its Peak — Is the Cycle Bottom Finally Close?

TLDR

• XRP has fallen 68.5% from its July 2025 peak of $3.65, now trading around $1.14
• The $1.27 support level has broken and now acts as resistance
• Analyst Ali Martinez is watching $0.90 as a key potential buying level
• On-chain data shows mixed signals: whale accumulation is up, but tokenized asset volume dropped 59%
• Technical indicators including RSI below 31 and a descending weekly channel suggest more downside is possible

XRP is trading near $1.14, its lowest price in roughly 19 months. The token has dropped 68.5% from its all-time high of $3.65 reached in July 2025.

The decline has picked up pace recently. XRP fell 11.8% in the past week and nearly 18.9% over the last 30 days.

The $1 level is now in focus. Many traders see it as the next major psychological support zone if current levels do not hold.

XRP has a history of steep drops. Over the past five years, it has seen four separate drawdowns of more than 40% within a six-month window. The current 46% six-month decline fits that pattern.

Analyst ChartNerd, who correctly identified the previous three cycle lows using the Gaussian Channel framework, says XRP bear markets have historically lasted 400 to 790 days with drops of 85 to 96%. He notes the current correction has only run about 350 days and is down 71% from the July 2025 peak. He places the current cycle floor between $0.70 and $0.90 and says a bottom could form before year-end.

Technical Picture Points Lower

XRP broke below $1.27, a level that previously acted as support and now sits as overhead resistance. A brief recovery to $1.14 came on a 44% drop in trading volume, which analysts often view as weak buying conviction.

The 14-day RSI has fallen below 31, putting XRP in oversold territory. The weekly MACD remains below zero. The Aroon Down indicator sits at 85.71% against an Aroon Up of just 35.71%, showing sellers have stayed in control.

The 200-day moving average is at $1.6179, now a distant ceiling. A daily close below $1.10 could push XRP toward $1.09, and a break there would open the door to sub-$1 price action.

Widely followed crypto analyst Ali Martinez has flagged $0.90 as his key level to watch. He said on June 7: “If price gets there, I think it could offer a compelling long-term buying opportunity.” Martinez’s comment reflects growing analyst attention on the $0.90 to $1.00 range as a zone where longer-term buyers may step in.

On-Chain Data: Mixed Signals

Not all data points are negative. More than 25 million XRP were recently moved off exchanges, which typically signals accumulation. Binance inflows hit their lowest point of 2026 this week. Whale wallet addresses reached a record 332,230.

However, on-chain fundamentals for the XRP Ledger have weakened. Tokenized asset transfer volume on XRPL dropped 59% over 30 days to $54.1 million. Total tokenized assets on XRPL fell 11% to $384.5 million. XRPL’s share of the tokenized asset market stands at just over 1%.

Stablecoin transfer volume on XRPL rose 118% to $4.5 billion, and the number of RWA holders on the network jumped 275% to 105 holders.

The next key macro event is US CPI data due June 10, 2026.

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