Arthur Hayes Says Oil Surge Could Hit Stocks, BTC

TLDR

• Arthur Hayes said rising oil prices could push Trump toward anti-AI rhetoric before the election.
• He linked gasoline and food costs to voter behavior and election outcomes.
• Hayes argued that higher energy prices increase pressure on U.S. policy decisions.
• He identified energy costs, mega IPO supply, and political rhetoric as risks to AI valuations.
• Hayes said AI firms have issued about $1.5 trillion in debt since late 2022.

Arthur Hayes warned that rising oil prices could push former President Donald Trump toward anti-AI rhetoric. He said such a shift could pressure stocks, banks, and Bitcoin at the same time. Hayes linked energy costs, election politics, and liquidity flows in recent market comments.

He argued that oil remains the core variable driving financial markets and political outcomes. He said markets ignore oil risks even as tensions rise near the Strait of Hormuz. He added that threats between Trump and Iran’s IRGC increase supply uncertainty.

Arthur Hayes Links Oil Prices to Trump’s AI Strategy

Arthur Hayes said gasoline and food prices influence U.S. election outcomes more than speeches. He stated, “Tell me the change in gasoline and food prices, and I will tell you who wins.” He argued that higher oil could pressure Trump before November.

He explained that swing voters react to daily costs rather than campaign messaging. He said Trump may adopt anti-AI rhetoric if oil rises further. He added that lower oil would remove that political pressure.

Hayes said both Washington and Tehran lack incentives to compromise at current oil levels. He noted that energy prices remain above pre-war levels but remain manageable. He said commodity supplies continue to flow across global markets.

He identified data centers as a potential political target. He said voters already worry about power costs and local grid strain. He added that Trump could promise limits on data center expansion and AI-related taxes.

He cited Tesla ($TSLA) falling 18% intraday after Trump threatened Musk-linked contracts. He also referenced South Korea’s Kospi nearing limit down during AI tax discussions. He said officials later reversed those statements.

Bitcoin and AI Liquidity Pressures Under Scrutiny

Hayes compared Bitcoin’s cycle with AI’s capital expansion since November 2022. He noted Bitcoin bottomed near $15,000 after FTX collapsed. He said Bitcoin later reached $125,000 by October 2025.

He contrasted that performance with Nvidia ($NVDA), which rose about 11x over the same period. He said Bitcoin then fell 50% after its peak. He noted Nvidia rose roughly 10% from late 2025 levels.

Hayes stated that AI firms issued about $1.5 trillion in debt since late 2022. He said U.S. M2 increased by about $1.5 trillion during that period. He added that $1.3 trillion of AI debt emerged from 2025 onward.

He identified three risks to AI valuations. He listed higher energy costs, large IPO supply, and Trump’s rhetoric. He said SpaceX, Anthropic, and OpenAI could test market absorption capacity.

He estimated SpaceX could debut near $1.8 trillion at about 100x sales. He said a 50% gain could approach Amazon’s ($AMZN) scale. He added that float expansion could rise fivefold before September.

Hayes said he holds Bitcoin and Ether while exiting several AI-linked tokens. He stated, “I believe Bitcoin will dump then pump.” He said a future crisis could prompt large-scale monetary expansion.

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