MercadoLibre (MELI) Stock Could Soar 72% According to Top Wall Street Analyst

Key Takeaways

• Bank of America maintains its Buy rating on MercadoLibre with a $2,400 price objective
• The company’s credit card loan portfolio expanded more than 2x year-over-year in Q1 2026, hitting $6.6 billion and representing 45% of total lending
• Analysts at BofA project the credit card division will lose $443M in 2026 before turning profitable by 2028 and generating $1.5B in EBIT by 2030
• Shares have declined 34.5% year-to-date compared to a 24% rise in the S&P 500, yet 85% of Wall Street analysts maintain Buy recommendations
• Scotiabank analyst Hector Maya holds the most bullish view with a $2,800 price target — representing 72% upside from current levels

Shares of MercadoLibre are changing hands near $1,622 as of June 9, 2026, reflecting a year-to-date decline of approximately 34.5% even as the broader S&P 500 index has advanced 24%.

MercadoLibre, Inc., MELI

Despite this underperformance, analyst sentiment remains overwhelmingly positive. Eighty-five percent of Wall Street analysts tracking the Latin American e-commerce and fintech giant maintain Buy ratings, with zero analysts setting price objectives below current trading levels.

Bank of America Securities reaffirmed its Buy recommendation this week, maintaining a $2,400 price objective. Lead analyst Robert E. Ford Aguilar highlighted the company’s expanding credit card operations as the key catalyst for long-term value creation, despite current pressure on profitability metrics.

MercadoLibre’s credit card loan portfolio experienced explosive year-over-year growth in Q1 2026, more than doubling to $6.6 billion. This segment now accounts for roughly 45% of the company’s entire lending portfolio.

Monthly active users utilizing credit cards jumped 68% during the same timeframe, significantly outpacing the 29% growth in overall Mercado Pago monthly active users. This demonstrates exceptional momentum in a strategically important vertical.

However, BofA analysts anticipate the credit card division will report an EBIT loss of $443 million during 2026, creating a 1.1 percentage point headwind to consolidated operating margins. Credit card operations typically require 12 to 18 months to achieve net interest margin breakeven following launch due to initial provisioning requirements.

The investment bank forecasts the segment will reach profitability in 2028, subsequently delivering $1.5 billion in EBIT by 2030. This would contribute an additional 2.2 percentage points to consolidated margins compared to 2026 baseline levels.

Minimal Market Penetration Presents Substantial Growth Runway

Notwithstanding the impressive credit card expansion, MercadoLibre commanded only 3.4% of total industry credit card balances in Brazil and 2.5% in Mexico as of March 2026. This represents significant white space for continued growth.

The platform also introduced its credit card offering in Argentina, where it serves 19.9 million daily active Pago application users — exceeding the 12.9 million in Brazil. BofA’s Aguilar highlighted that reduced customer acquisition expenses and superior brand recognition in Argentina should drive accelerated portfolio expansion as the country’s inflation trajectory continues stabilizing.

Argentina’s historically suppressed credit penetration rates, resulting from decades of macroeconomic volatility, create what amounts to a greenfield opportunity.

Fundamental Growth Metrics That Command Attention

Taking a broader view, MercadoLibre’s overall operations have delivered 31% compound annual growth over the past ten years. Total credit users expanded from 10 million in 2022 to 41.9 million as of Q1 2026. The aggregate credit portfolio ballooned from $2.8 billion to $14.6 billion during this period.

E-commerce adoption across Latin America stands at merely 14%, compared with 27% in the United States and 32% in China. The total addressable market is valued at $5.5 trillion, set against trailing twelve-month revenue of $31.8 billion.

Customers making purchases across at least three product categories increased 130% from 2022 through Q1 2026. Average quarterly purchase frequency climbed from 6.8 to 9 transactions over this timeframe.

The most optimistic Wall Street projection comes from Scotiabank’s Hector Maya at $2,800 — representing a 72% premium to present trading levels, though this actually reflects a reduction from his previous $3,500 target.

Bank of America employs a sum-of-the-parts valuation framework: assigning the commerce segment 0.6x 2027 gross merchandise value and the fintech division 0.2x 2027 off-platform total payments value, yielding the $2,400 price target.

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