Full Risk-Off (And Some Baggage)
Crypto walked into the macro winter without its coat, and it's shivering. Bitcoin dipped below $67,000 this week, grinding around $66,500–$67,000. Research firm K33's regime model is flashing late-2022 vibes with spot volume down 59%, longs exiting, and ETF holdings at a record drawdown. What lies ahead looks very much like a long grind between $60K and $75K. If Q1 holds this trajectory, it could mark the weakest first quarter since 2018.
The Fed is divided. January FOMC minutes confirmed that rate cuts are on pause until inflation cooperates. And in a twist, some officials floated the idea that hikes could come back to the table. The committee wants future statements to reflect a "two-sided" view on rates. Translation: don't front-run a pivot. The market had already priced in an optimistic cutting cycle; those expectations are now being walked back, and crypto is taking the hit.
Add a tariff ruling expected Feb 20 and a clearer picture presents itself: a Fed that isn't cutting, trade policy uncertainty, and a dollar with room to strengthen. None of these are exactly tailwinds.
On the news front: World Liberty Financial launched World Swap, a FX and remittance platform, extending its ambitions beyond lending. Ripple partnered with Aviva Investors to tokenise traditional funds on the XRP Ledger. And Aave Labs dropped the "Aave Will Win" governance proposal, more on that below.
New & Noteworthy
A quieter week, courtesy of Lunar New Year.
The listings that did come through skew toward two dominant narratives:
• Stable-adjacent assets dominated. From gold-backed tokens, Goldfish Gold, to new stablecoin designs, Flying Tulip, projects are leaning into collateral you can explain to a pension committee. In a market that distrusts volatility, "boring" suddenly looks like innovation.
• AI agents remain the other magnet. Take Bankrcoin (BNKR): a trading bot that lives inside Farcaster and X, so you can place orders without ever leaving the timeline you were scrolling. It points to a shift from AI as buzzword to AI as interface—bots that execute, coordinate, and handle the grunt work.
Whether any of this turns into durable revenue is an open question. But it's pulling in builders, users, and speculative capital all the same, which in crypto usually means the story has legs, at least for now.
[Seek the Narrative]{https://www.mexc.com/announcements/new-listings}
Weekly Events Highlights
Lunar New Year quieted down, but MEXC's action is heating up. Here are the spots worth your attention amid the grind.
• HYPE Fever Extended: Volatility loves company, and HYPE Fever just doubled down. The prize pool has been boosted to $300K as traders pile into permissionless leverage plays. Complete tasks, spin the wheel for HYPE/BTC/USDT rewards, enjoy 0-fee trading on HYPE pairs (spot & futures), and new users snag 10 USDT on qualifying deposits. It's less promo, more fuel for the always-on crowd dodging macro winter.
• XAUT Launchpad: Gold is hovering near $5,000 and behaving like the grown-up in the room. MEXC's ongoing Launchpad lets you subscribe USDT for tokenized gold (XAUT) at discounts—up to 40% off for new users or 20% off for all. No whitepaper needed; just centuries of proven value pre-electricity. Comfort in collateral form.
[Find Your Spot]{https://www.mexc.com/announcements/latest-events/ongoing}
Who Leads Crypto Out of the Thaw?
No one knows the exact path forward, and anyone claiming certainty is usually pitching something. But the data points to some useful questions.
Miners are under more pressure than the BTC price suggests. The average BTC mining cost is estimated at around $78,400, meaning the typical miner is probably operating underwater. The real question is whether miners are accumulating here or quietly distributing. At cycle turns, that distinction tends to matter.
VC funding this cycle has skewed heavily toward later-stage deals—likely a mix of asset-class maturation and reduced appetite for early risk. Capital has concentrated in infrastructure, tokenisation, RWA and AI-adjacent projects, while consumer apps stay sidelined.
Aave's "Aave Will Win" proposal is one to watch. The idea: route 100% of Aave-branded product revenue to the DAO treasury and move toward fully token-centric value accrual. If it advances through governance and revenue flows materialize, it could redefine what "winning" looks like in DeFi.
Attention markets are gaining traction as a fresh category. Zora is bringing them to Solana, and Polymarket is partnering with Kaito AI to build them out. The core thesis: Attention (who is discussing what, and for how long) becomes directly tradeable. This could serve as a new on-chain primitive for speculation, or it might represent the next evolution in financializing online narratives. Likely some of both.
Spring may not be here yet. But something is thawing.
Start Earning on Stables
USDT isn't just for sitting pretty. Lock it in and earn up to 600% APR. Stables can hustle too.
[Stack Yield on MEXC]{https://www.mexc.com/staking?financialId=1970053632745684992¤cyId=128f589271cb4951b03e71e6323eb7be¤cyName=USDT}
As always, we'll keep watching the narratives as they form. See you in the markets.
