In the first week of August 2026, the U.S. stock market saw two parallel themes unfold—a diplomatic breakthrough between the U.S. and Iran drove Brent crude oil prices to plummet by more than 5% in aIn the first week of August 2026, the U.S. stock market saw two parallel themes unfold—a diplomatic breakthrough between the U.S. and Iran drove Brent crude oil prices to plummet by more than 5% in a
Akademiya/Market Insights/Others/U.S. Stocks Weekly Report | Jul 31–Aug 07: U.S.-Iran Thaw Sends Oil Prices Plummeting, AI Computing Power Sector Accelerates Across the Board
U.S. Stocks Weekly Report | Jul 31–Aug 07: U.S.-Iran Thaw Sends Oil Prices Plummeting, AI Computing Power Sector Accelerates Across the Board
In the first week of August 2026, the U.S. stock market saw two parallel themes unfold—a diplomatic breakthrough between the U.S. and Iran drove Brent crude oil prices to plummet by more than 5% in a single day, while Palantir (PLTR) and AMD delivered one of the strongest quarterly earnings reports to date in the AI computing power sector.
The fading of geopolitical risk premiums, the unexpectedly strong rebound in manufacturing sentiment, and the accelerated commercial validation of both AI software and hardware collectively formed the underlying logic behind this week's "energy crash, tech rebound" pattern in the U.S. stock market. This article will break down these three major themes and include this week's individual stock performance along with next week's key calendar events.
1. US-Iran Thaw and Reopening of the Strait of Hormuz: Restructuring Risk Asset Logic Behind the 5% Plunge in Oil Prices
1.1 Event Review
On August 3, the Trump administration announced a suspension of military actions against Iran, with US Treasury Secretary Bessent stating that negotiations were progressing "positively." Market expectations for the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz rapidly intensified, causing Brent crude to fall by over 5% to approximately $79 per barrel on the day, ending months of geopolitical premium.
Meanwhile, the ISM Manufacturing PMI released on August 3 came in at 55.6, higher than the expected 54.0, marking the highest reading since May 2022. The manufacturing sector remained in expansion territory for the seventh consecutive month, and the employment sub-index also returned to expansion.
1.2 Market Logic
The sharp decline in oil prices affects the pricing of risk assets from three dimensions:
First, the "stagflation" narrative is dismantled. Previously, the market worried that energy prices would push up CPI and force the Federal Reserve to maintain a hawkish stance. The sudden drop in oil prices, combined with better-than-expected ISM data, broke the expected combination of "high inflation + high interest rates," creating conditions for the Fed's easing window to reopen.
Second, sector rotation. Energy stocks face significant profit-taking pressure, with capital flowing into tech growth stocks and gold. Newmont (NEM) rose by +11.5% this week, confirming the dual benefits of "fading geopolitical premium + rate cut expectations" for gold miners.
Third, the AI narrative is strengthened. The decline in oil prices reduces corporate energy costs, improving expectations for the operating costs of AI data centers, which further supports the valuation logic of the computing power sector.
1.3 Watchlist for Next Week
The July CPI data, released on August 12, will be a key checkpoint to verify whether the cooling of oil prices has transmitted to inflation figures. If the CPI declines more than expected, tech growth stocks will receive stronger support from easing expectations.
2. PLTR Q2 Revenue +93%: Monetization of Government and Enterprise AI Software Is Now a Reality, Positive Flywheel Accelerating
Key Financial Highlights
Metric | Q2 2026 | Q2 2025 | YoY |
Total Revenue | $1.94B | $1.01B | +93% |
US Commercial Revenue | $764M | $301M | +149% |
GAAP Operating Margin | 47% | 31% | +16pp |
Rule of 40 | 155 | 83 | +72 |
Full-Year Guidance (Revenue Growth) | +82% | — | Raised |
Core Drivers
AIP "Boot Camp" model achieves scaled implementation. Palantir's AI Platform (AIP) enables enterprise clients to complete AI production deployment within 14 days through intensive "Boot Camp" workshops, significantly reducing the friction costs of enterprise AI adoption. This model has simultaneously increased customer conversion and renewal rates, creating a positive flywheel effect.
Sources of the moat. PLTR's competitive advantage does not stem from the models themselves, but from two dimensions: first, the high visibility and multi-year lock-in nature of government contracts, which are barriers that pure SaaS competitors cannot replicate; second, enterprise demand for data sovereignty drives private deployment, giving Palantir's On-Premise AI model security endorsements far exceeding those of cloud-based competitors.
The logic behind the valuation premium. Rule of 40 = 155 (sum of growth and profit margin), an indicator combination almost unmatched among currently publicly listed AI software companies. For investors who believe PLTR is overvalued, this data provides a clear counter-argument framework: when growth accelerates so rapidly while profit margins continue to expand, the traditional P/S valuation system needs to be recalibrated.
3. AMD Data Center +107%: AI Computing Power Enters the Era of Duopoly Competition
Key Financial Report Metrics
Metric | Q2 2026 | Q2 2025 | YoY |
Total Revenue | $11.5B | $7.7B | +50% |
Data Center Revenue | $6.7B | $3.2B | +107% |
Gross Margin | 56% | 53% | +3pp |
Q3 Revenue Guidance | $12.7–13.3B | — | Implied +41% |
Data Center Share | 58% | 42% | +16pp |
AMD's Structural Opportunities
EPYC + Instinct Dual Engines. AMD's data center revenue is driven by two components: EPYC server CPUs (continuously gaining share among cloud providers) and Instinct AI GPUs (entering the procurement lists of Microsoft, Google, and Meta as an alternative to NVDA Blackwell). The simultaneous growth of both segments is the structural reason for the doubling of data center revenue this quarter.
Cloud Providers Proactively Adopt Multi-Vendor Strategies. The earnings season for the Mag7 has proven that the absolute scale of AI capex is still expanding. Cloud providers are implementing multi-vendor strategies in computing power procurement not because NVDA's products are inferior, but due to considerations of supply chain security and bargaining power. AMD is a direct beneficiary of this logic.
NVDA's Moat Remains, but the Landscape Is Changing. NVDA's CUDA ecosystem and software toolchain (cuDNN/NIM) still hold a generational advantage on the training side, and Blackwell remains leading in performance. However, the "single-dominant-player" landscape is evolving into a "duopoly competition," which is a structural benefit for the memory sector (MU/HBM)—whether NVDA or AMD shipments increase, HBM demand follows suit.
4. Macro Background: Dual Validation from Better-than-Expected ISM PMI and NFP
ISM Manufacturing PMI at 55.6
This is the highest reading since May 2022, marking the seventh consecutive month of expansion. The employment sub-index has returned to expansion territory, indicating that the manufacturing boom is not a flash in the pan. For the Federal Reserve, this data set supports the narrative of a soft economic landing and provides hawkish members with justification for "no urgent need to cut rates." However, the simultaneous decline in oil prices has put overall inflationary pressure on a downward trend—this combination is most favorable for risk assets.
July Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP)
The July NFP was released on Aug 7 (today). The previous value for June was +57,000, while market expectations for July ranged between +80,000 and +120,000. Employment data will be a key reference for judging the Fed's next move (whether to cut rates in September). The results will be gradually reflected in market pricing after the release of this article.
5. Overview of Individual Stock Performance This Week (as of Thursday's Close)
Ticker Symbol | Company Name | Sector | Weekly Gain | YTD Gain |
NVDA | NVIDIA | AI Computing/Chips | +9% | +17.4% |
AMD | AMD | AI Computing/Chips | +1.7% | +127.3% |
PLTR | Palantir Technologies | AI Unicorn/Government & Enterprise AI | +26.2% | -12.3% |
GEV | GE Vernova | AI Power | -4% | +52.6% |
MU | Micron Technology | Memory/HBM | +7% | +204% |
NEM | Newmont | Gold/Safe-Haven Assets | +11.5% | +4.1% |
Individual stock price changes are based on publicly available market information and are subject to final market quotes.
6. Key Calendar for Next Week
Next week is a dual verification week for inflation data and tech earnings. The CPI and earnings reports from three major companies will jointly determine the market's pricing direction for the Fed's September decision.
Date | Type | Event | Key Focus |
Aug 11 (Mon) | Earnings | Super Micro Computer (SMCI) After Hours | Bellwether for AI server supply chain; Q4 revenue warning disclosed (low end $11 billion), focus on whether gross margin recovers and the shipment pace of Blackwell racks |
Aug 12 (Tue) | Data | July CPI | Can the sharp drop in oil prices translate into lower inflation? If CPI cools more than expected, the probability of a Fed rate cut in September will rise quickly, benefiting tech growth stocks |
Aug 12 (Tue) | Earnings | Cisco (CSCO) After Hours | Q4 FY2026; Whether AI-driven network infrastructure demand can be verified, focus on backlog and shipment growth of data center switches |
Aug 13 (Wed) | Data | July PPI | Producer prices linked to energy costs; If tensions in the Hormuz Strait continue to ease, declining PPI will open up space for corporate gross margin expansion |
Aug 13 (Wed) | Earnings | JD.com (JD) Pre-Market | Q2; Test the pace of China's consumption recovery, while focusing on JD's AI procurement business layout, as well as GMV growth and profit margin trends |
All dates above are in Eastern Time (ET). Earnings dates are subject to company announcements.
7. Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)
Q1: PLTR stock price is up +26% this week. Is it still a good time to buy in?
A: The significant rise in PLTR this week is mainly driven by a logical revaluation triggered by its earnings report—Rule of 40 = 155, U.S. Commercial revenue +149%, with these figures far exceeding market expectations. The short-term gain is already substantial, so chasing the high requires an assessment of your personal risk tolerance. From a fundamental perspective, the accelerated commercialization of AIP and the raised full-year guidance represent substantive positive changes. However, PLTR's year-to-date (YTD) performance remains at -12.3%, indicating significant divergence in pricing at the beginning of the year. It is recommended to make decisions based on position management; this does not constitute investment advice.
Q2: AMD's data center business has doubled. Will this affect NVDA's market position?
A: It will not shake NVDA's dominant position in the short term. NVDA holds a moat in the training sector with its CUDA ecosystem, leads in Blackwell performance, and its shipment volumes are also growing. AMD's rise is more a result of "cloud providers actively diversifying their procurement" rather than zero-sum competition. Both benefit from the expansion of AI capex, and the memory sector (MU/HBM) is one of the most robust allocation directions to navigate this competitive landscape.
Q3: How will the market react if US-Iran peace talks break down?
A: If negotiations collapse, oil prices will face a rapid rebound, reigniting energy inflation expectations, while valuations of tech growth stocks will come under pressure. However, the market has already partially priced in the optimistic expectation of "peace deal realization," so the short-term impact of a breakdown could be severe. Gold finds support in both scenarios—driven by safe-haven demand when geopolitical risks escalate, and by rate cut expectations after a peace deal is reached.
Q4: What impact does an ISM PMI of 55.6 have on the Fed's September decision?
A: The better-than-expected PMI supports the view that "the economy does not need urgent easing," making the Fed more cautious about its September rate cut decision. However, falling oil prices are simultaneously lowering inflation expectations, creating a counterbalance between these two forces. The actual data for July CPI (Aug 12) and NFP (released today) will serve as more direct references for decision-making. If both datasets show cooling inflation and weakening employment, the probability of a September rate cut will increase significantly.
Q5: GEV dropped 4% this week. Does the AI power thesis still hold?
A: Short-term market pullback does not change the long-term logic. PLTR and AMD earnings reports have once again validated the continued acceleration of AI computing infrastructure build-out, and visibility into data center electricity demand continues to improve. GEV's pullback this week is more due to profit-taking and rotation in market sentiment, rather than a change in fundamental logic. The YTD gain of +52.6% already reflects strong market recognition of AI power demand.
Q6: MU is up +204% this year. Is there still room for the HBM thesis?
A: MU's HBM thesis is directly linked to AI GPU shipments. AMD Instinct GPUs are accelerating shipments this quarter, and NVDA Blackwell production capacity is continuously ramping up, both directly driving HBM demand. The expected listing window for SK Hynix's US ADR remains in Q3, which will further expand the range of HBM targets available for allocation by US stock investors. As the most direct US-listed beneficiary of HBM, MU's allocation thesis has not been invalidated by the rise in share price, but valuation should be carefully assessed based on individual judgment.
Q7: Is SMCI's earnings report next week worth watching?
A: Yes, it is. SMCI is a core supplier of NVDA Blackwell rack servers, and its earnings report is a key data point for validating the "realization of downstream demand for AI servers." The company previously issued a Q4 revenue warning (lower end at $11 billion), and market expectations for gross margin recovery and Blackwell shipment pace have turned conservative, leaving room for results to exceed expectations.
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Disclaimer: This content is based on public market information as of August 7, 2026, and has been independently compiled by the MEXC U.S. Stocks Spot team. It is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice. The market involves risks, so please invest with caution.
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