This week, the US stock market ushered in multiple catalysts: the July CPI exceeded expectations and cooled down, the S & P 500 hit a historic high, coupled with the SMCI financial reportThis week, the US stock market ushered in multiple catalysts: the July CPI exceeded expectations and cooled down, the S & P 500 hit a historic high, coupled with the SMCI financial report
Akademiya/Market Insights/Others/US Stock Weekly | Aug.08–Aug.13: CPI Cooling Lifts S&P 500 to Record High, AI Infrastructure Earnings Surge Across the Board
US Stock Weekly | Aug.08–Aug.13: CPI Cooling Lifts S&P 500 to Record High, AI Infrastructure Earnings Surge Across the Board
This week, the US stock market ushered in multiple catalysts: the July CPI exceeded expectations and cooled down, the S & P 500 hit a historic high, coupled with the SMCI financial report significantly exceeding expectations and the outbreak of Cisco AI orders. The AI infrastructure sector has entered a new stage of profit realization. This weekly report will review this week's key market trends and look forward to the two core events of next week's NVDA financial report and Jackson Hole central bank annual meeting.
1. Macro environment this week: Cooling inflation + S & P hitting a new high, double good news opens up a loose narrative
The most important macro data this week comes from the July CPI released on Wednesday and the PPI released on Thursday.
July CPI: YoY + 3.4% (MoM only + 0.1%), lower than expected for the second consecutive month, and the process of de-inflation has accelerated significantly. The decline in energy costs is the main contribution, and core service inflation is also slowing down.
July PPI: Monthly rate is flat (better than expected + 0.2%), producer price pressure continues to ease, and the expansion space of enterprise gross profit margin is further opened.
Both sets of data are better than expected, and the market's pricing probability for a rate cut in September has significantly increased. On the day of the release of CPI data, the S & P 500 directly hit a historical high, and AI profit verification and inflation cooling formed a "double positive" effect, providing strong support for risky assets.
Next week's Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Annual Meeting (8/27-29) will be the most important policy outlook signal of the year. If inflation data continues to improve, the Fed Chairperson's speech may clarify the path of interest rate cuts at the end of the year, and the market may once again price in loose expectations.
2. Key sectors and representative targets this week
2.1 AI computing power/chip
NVDA (NVIDIA) | + 0.5% this week · + 20.5% this year
NVIDIA rose slightly this week with the overall market recovery. The core catalyst is the upcoming Q2 FY2027 financial report (after hours on August 26th), which will be the key point in time for the market to verify Blackwell's GPU shipment rhythm and revenue guidance for the next fiscal year. The explosive growth of SMCI's Q4 revenue of $11.1B (+ 91%) this week once again confirms that Blackwell's supply chain prosperity has not declined, providing strong endorsement for NVDA's financial report expectations.There is no sign of loosening in the direction of AI capex construction, and the capital expenditures of Mag 7 companies continue to remain high.
AVGO (Broadcom) | -2.6% this week · + 20.6% this year
Broadcom fell slightly this week due to sector adjustments, but the long-term logic remains unchanged. AVGO is the core supplier of self-developed AI chips by Google (TPU), Apple (Neural Engine), and Meta, representing a structural shift in AI computing power from "GPU dominance" to "GPU + ASIC dual track". As the demand for customized AI chips from super large cloud vendors continues to rise, AVGO's ASIC design and packaging capabilities have built a high-barrier Competitive Edge, and the visibility of customized chip orders continues to rise.
2.2 AI Server Supply Chain
SMCI (Supermicro Computer) | + 25.2% this week · + 32.4% this year
The biggest highlight of this week. SMCI Q4 FY2026 financial report comprehensively exceeded expectations.
- Revenue $11.1B (+ 91% YoY), significantly breaking historical records in a single quarter
- Gross margin 17.5% (vs 9.9% in Q3), significantly restored and exceeded market expectations
- EPS 1.7 dollars (0.88 dollars higher than expected, 93% higher than expected)
- FY2026 annual revenue $39.1B (+ 78% YoY)
- FY2027 Revenue Guidance $65B-72B (Implied YoY Growth 66-84%)
- The number of customers paying more than $1B per year increased from 4 last year to 9
SMCI's financial report conveys a core signal: the profitability of the AI server market has shifted from "sales volume" to "sales value". The gross profit margin has jumped from single digits to 17.5%, representing the differentiated premium of customized Blackwell liquid cooling rack solutions. This is an important verification of profitability for the entire AI infrastructure supply chain.
2.3 AI Power/Nuclear Energy
CEG (Constellation Energy) | + 3% this week · -21.1% this year
The power demand of AI Data Center continues to rise with the expansion pace of AI revealed in the financial reports of SMCI and CSCO. As the largest nuclear power operator in the US, Constellation Energy has signed a 20-year nuclear power purchase agreement with Microsoft to provide clean, stable, and predictable baseload power for AI Data Center - this is the core value that intermittent Renewable Energy cannot replace. Since the beginning of this year, it has been under pressure due to energy price fluctuations, but as the power demand narrative of AI Data Center becomes increasingly mainstream, the nuclear power track is being repriced.
2.4 Storage/HBM
MU (Micron Technology) | + 5% this week · + 227% this year
SMCI Q4 financial report and FY2027's revenue guidance of $65B-72B directly verify the substantial expansion of demand for AI server memory (HBM). Each AI server rack requires a large amount of high-bandwidth memory, and the explosive growth of SMCI directly amplifies the demand for HBM orders. In addition, the listing process of SK Hynix US ADR continues to advance. If successfully implemented, it will bring new valuation expansion catalysts to the entire HBM sector. MU, as the most direct beneficiary of HBM in the current US stock market, deserves continuous attention.
2.5 AI Network/Cloud Infrastructure
CSCO (Cisco) | -6.2% this week · + 46.7% this year
Cisco Q4 FY2026 financial report is strong, but the stock price fell after the market closed, belonging to the "good news realization" style of correction.
- Revenue of $17.25B (+ 17.6% YoY) exceeded Wall Street expectations
- Non-GAAP EPS 1.22 dollars (higher than expected 1.17 dollars)
- AI orders Q4 single quarter $4B , FY2026 full year cumulative $9.3B
- FY2027 Revenue Guidance $72.2B - 73.4B (Median YoY + 14%)
The core of Cisco's AI story is "selling shovels": the construction of AI data centers requires high-density Ethernet switches, optical interconnection, and data center network solutions, which are the core territory accumulated by Cisco for decades. The $9.3B annual AI order is no longer an "expected story", but a visible backlog of orders and revenue confirmation. This week's pullback provides a buying opportunity for AI infrastructure exposures that are more focused on certainty and relatively undervalued.
3. In-depth focus on individual stocks
3.1 SMCI - AI server supply chain profitability enters a new stage
Q4 revenue $11.1B, YoY + 91%; gross profit margin 17.5% (significantly recovered from Q3's 9.9%), EPS 1.7 dollars (exceeded expectations by 0.88 dollars, + 93%); FY2026 full-year revenue $39.1B, YoY + 78%; FY2027 revenue guidance $65B-72B. 9 customers have annual payments exceeding $1B (only 4 last year) - AI server demand explosion combined with improved gross profit margin structure, supply chain profitability has entered a new stage.
SMCI's competitive advantage in the AI server market lies in its direct cooperation with NVDA for customized integration of Blackwell liquid-cooled racks, faster delivery speed than traditional server vendors, and end-to-end solutions for super large AI training clusters. The 9 super customer groups with annual consumption of over $1B represent the most long-term sticky demand source in AI computing power construction.
It is worth noting that the sustainability of the gross profit margin jumping from 9.9% to 17.5% will be the most critical verification point for the next quarter's financial report. If the subsequent gross profit margin remains above 15%, it will significantly reassess SMCI's long-term profitability.
3.2 CSCO - Comprehensive Verification of the AI Path of Traditional IT Giants
Q4 revenue $17.25B, YoY + 17.6%; non-GAAP EPS 1.22 dollars (exceeding expectations by 1.17 dollars); AI orders Q4 single quarter $4B, FY2026 total $9.3B; FY2027 revenue guidance $72.2B-73.4B (median YoY + 14%) - AI demand has substantially driven CSCO's transformation from a traditional network equipment vendor to an AI infrastructure core supplier, and the "selling shovel" logic has been fully verified at the network layer.
Cisco's AI path is built on three pillars: ① High-density AI Data Center Ethernet (400G/800G switch replacement cycle); ② Hypershield AI-driven security platform; ③ Splunk integration (security + observable data platform). Compared to NVDA's GPU mainline, CSCO provides lower valuation and higher certainty AI infrastructure exposure, suitable for configuration strategies seeking AI dividends but avoiding high valuation fluctuations.
4. This week's market discussion
4.1 CPI 3.4% cooling: Inflation continues to ease, the macro logic behind the S & P 500 hitting a new high
July CPI + 3.4% (MoM + 0.1%), PPI monthly rate unchanged, both better than expected - "de-inflation" is picking up again, and the Fed's easing window has opened again.
The S & P 500 hit a historic high on the day of CPI release; Jackson Hole (8/27-29) Fed Chairperson's speech will be the most important policy forward signal of the year. If CPI continues to improve in August, the path of two interest rate cuts before the end of the year will become clearer, and macro support for risky assets will continue to strengthen.
4.2 SMCI gross profit margin 9.9% → 17.5%: AI server supply chain profit inflection point has been confirmed
Q4 gross profit margin 17.5% (vs Q3 9.9%), EPS 1.7 dollars exceeded expectations by 93%; 9 customers paid $1B + annually (4 in the previous year) - the bargaining power of the supply chain has been substantially improved.
FY2027 guidance $65B-72B (YoY growth of 66-84%), Blackwell racks accelerate shipments; gross profit margin Sustainability is the most critical verification point for next quarter's financial report. For the entire AI server supply chain, the improvement of SMCI's profit structure means that the industry has entered the stage of "quantity-for-market" from the early stage, which also has important reference significance for similar server manufacturers such as DELL and HPE.
5. Key calendars for the past two weeks
Date | Type | Event | Focus |
8/19 | Financial report | Analog Devices (ADI) After-hours | Industrial AI & analog chips; focus on the rhythm of data center and industrial order recovery, verify whether the industrial semiconductor inventory cycle has bottomed out |
8/24 | Financial report | XPENG (XPEV) Pre-market | China's EV and AI application landing; pay attention to the delivery rhythm of MONA series, AI assisted driving penetration rate and gross profit margin trend |
8/26 | Financial report | NVIDIA (NVDA) after-hours | AI chip annual most heavyweight financial report ; focus on Blackwell GPU full-speed shipment rhythm, FY2027 revenue guidance, and forward-looking signals for the next generation architecture Rubin |
8/27–29 | Major events | Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Annual Meeting | Fed Chairperson's speech is the most important policy forward signal of the year; pay attention to the path of interest rate cuts, the balance between employment and inflation targets, and the signal guidance for the September FOMC meeting |
The above dates are all Eastern Time (ET), and the financial report date is subject to the company's announcement
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Disclaimer: This content is based on open market information as of August 13, 2026, independently compiled by the MEXC US stock spot team. It is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice. The market is risky, and investment needs to be cautious.
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