Bitcoin Price Breaks 200-Week Support: Fed Hike Odds Hit 96%

 

Bitcoin fell to an intraday low of $67,500 on November 13, piercing the 200-week simple moving average at $67,993 by $493 or 0.73%, before recovering to $68,960 and back above that average by 1.42%. This was the first test of the line in roughly eleven weeks, since August 19, and it matters because this average has repeatedly served as the reference point for cycle lows.

 

What triggered the decline came from outside crypto. October CPI rose 0.4% month on month against a 0.3% forecast and core CPI rose 0.3% against 0.2%, both a tenth of a point above expectations, after which the probability of a 25-basis-point hike on December 9 jumped from 76.3% to 96.3%. The same day Nvidia announced that Jensen Huang had stepped down with immediate effect, sending its shares down more than 13% intraday to close 4.34% lower, while the Nasdaq Composite fell just 0.39%.

 

 

 

From roughly $81,000 on November 4 to the $67,500 low on November 13, nine sessions produced a cumulative decline of 16.67%. The current price sits 14.39% below the 50-day average, 11.02% below the 100-day exponential average, 8.65% below the 50-week average, 5.64% below the 21-week average and 5.59% below the 200-day average, with the 200-week average the only one it holds, by 1.42%. First resistance overhead is a three-way confluence: the 200-day average at $73,040, the 21-week average at $73,078 and the November 10 session low at $72,585, spanning just $493 or 0.68%. US spot bitcoin ETFs saw net outflows of $1.2817 billion from November 2 to 6, of which BlackRock's IBIT alone accounted for $1.210 billion, or 94.4%. On-chain, the short-term holder cost basis stands at $75,691, leaving the current price 8.89% beneath it. In derivatives, 24-hour liquidations exceeded $720 million with longs above $640 million, or 88.9% of the total.

 

 

This line is the only technical level this week that warrants separate treatment.

 

Per Cointelegraph's calculation on November 13, bitcoin's 200-week simple moving average sits at $67,993, and price touched $67,500 during the session, $493 or 0.73% below it, before rebounding. Per IG's record of the same session, price traded near $68,960, down about 3% on the day, which puts it 1.42% back above that average.

 

The line was last touched on August 19, making this the first test in roughly eleven weeks. Historically it was traded around repeatedly from March to October 2023 and again from June to mid-August 2026, acting as both support and resistance through bear phases. Keith Alan, cofounder of Material Indicators, offers a downside reference: if the weekly RSI loses 41.5, price could revisit the cycle low at $57,700. That is a conditional statement rather than a forecast, and the 41.5 figure comes from that indicator having found support there in late July.

 

 

 

The structure of that table describes the position: price sits below five of six reference averages, and the one it holds is the cycle-low reference itself. That arrangement means dense resistance overhead and, simultaneously, that the nearest structural support below has already been tested once.

 

 

The 200-day average at $73,040, the 21-week average at $73,078 and the November 10 session low at $72,585 all fall inside a $493 band, a relative spread of 0.68%.

 

Averages of different periods rarely coincide at one price, and adding a freshly printed session low makes $72,585 to $73,078 a zone carrying more weight than any single average would. It sits 5.26% to 5.97% above the current price. IG's framework treats a sustained reclaim of $70,000 as the first step toward stabilisation, with $74,000 as the next reference and $77,000 to $78,000 as the 100-day exponential average above that, which corroborates the position of the confluence zone.

 

On the downside, IG gives $69,000 to $70,000 as the immediate zone, with $65,000 next if that fails and roughly $60,000 beneath it. A separate set of references calculated from Kraken daily closes lists the August 19 low at $64,100 and a $62,200 to $62,500 area as deeper floors.

 

 

Laying the nine sessions out shows which event corresponds to which leg.

 

 

October CPI from the Bureau of Labor Statistics was the watershed for the whole decline. Per Altcoin Buzz's account, headline rose 0.4% month on month against a 0.3% forecast, with September at 0.6%, while core rose 0.3% against 0.2%, matching August and September. Both came in a tenth of a point above expectations.

 

After the release, CME Group's FedWatch put the probability of a 25-basis-point hike on December 9 at 96.3%, up from 76.3%, a rise of 20 points, against a reading of just 78.8% on November 9. What drove that final jump was Federal Reserve Governor Waller saying he would still support a December increase. The target range stands at 3.75% to 4.00%, with the 10-year yield at 5.12% and the 2-year near 4.77%, a spread of 0.35 points.

 

The last leg on November 13 had a separate source. Per BigGo Finance's summary, Nvidia announced that Jensen Huang had stepped down with immediate effect as president, chief executive and director, with chief financial officer Colette Kress appointed interim chief executive, sending shares down more than 13% intraday to close 4.34% lower while the Nasdaq Composite fell 0.39%. Nvidia's closing decline was 11.1 times the index move, marking this as a single-stock event spilling into risk assets rather than a broad contraction in risk appetite. Over the same period, MSCI decided in its regular review to remove Strategy, the largest corporate bitcoin holder, from the MSCI USA Index, effective after the close on the 30th.

 

 

Breaking the ETF data apart produces a different conclusion from the headline.

 

Per TechFlow citing SoSoValue, US spot bitcoin ETFs recorded net outflows of $1.2817 billion from November 2 to 6, the largest single week since late June, of which BlackRock's IBIT alone accounted for $1.210 billion, or 94.4% of the total. That fund has seen six consecutive sessions of outflows since October 30, totalling roughly $1.44 billion.

 

November 9 shows the dispersion more clearly. The complex recorded net outflows of $201 million that day while IBIT alone shed $213.23 million, meaning every other fund combined took net inflows of about $12.23 million. What reads as ETF selling was, on that day, one fund being redeemed.

 

The pace is slowing. The three sessions through November 11 produced net outflows of $595.98 million, averaging $198.7 million a session, 22.5% below the $256.3 million daily pace of November 2 to 6.

 

On-chain cost bases explain where the selling originates. CryptoQuant puts the short-term holder cost basis at $75,691, leaving the current price 8.89% or $6,731 beneath it, while coins last moved between one and three months ago carry an average cost near $79,300, putting price 13.04% below. Together these mean recently acquired supply sits at an unrealised loss, which makes $75,691 a zone of potential relief selling on any rebound.

 

Two further structural readings deserve recording. Glassnode data shows major stablecoin supply contracting by roughly $14.2 billion over 30 days, the fastest decline since June 2022, a measure often treated as a proxy for purchasing power on exchanges. And attackers from the October 29 Binance hot wallet incident still hold roughly $3.3 billion in unfreezable assets including 18,270 BTC, worth about $1.26 billion at current prices, equal to 0.98 times the entire net ETF outflow of the November 2 to 6 week. That is unrealised potential supply, and nothing available supports a judgment on whether or when it would be sold.

 

 

Perpetual funding turned clearly negative on November 13. The largest bitcoin perpetual market printed -0.0064% at that day's settlement and -0.0072% later in the morning, the lowest since early August. The reference that matters is frequency: of 285 settlements since August 10, only 23 were negative, or 8.1%, and the previous low was -0.0047% on October 22, making the current reading 53% deeper. Negative funding means shorts pay longs, which typically corresponds to leverage having tilted decisively bearish.

 

Positioning contracted alongside it. Bitcoin open interest on the same venue fell from $3.86 billion at 23:00 Thursday to $3.46 billion at 08:00 Friday, down 10.36% in nine hours. CoinGlass recorded 24-hour liquidations above $720 million, of which longs exceeded $640 million, or 88.9%, while November 9 alone saw $1.12 billion liquidated.

 

Options positioning is more specific. Among Deribit contracts expiring November 27, calls total 41,950 BTC against puts of 39,618 BTC for a notional near $5.6 billion, a put-to-call ratio of 0.94 against 0.72 for the December 25 expiry, making the near expiry 31% more put-weighted. The largest put strikes run $58,000 at roughly 3,960 BTC, $69,000 at 3,537, $70,000 at 3,409 and $72,000 at 3,321, three of which sit at or just above the current price, while the largest call strike is $90,000 at roughly 5,070. Implied volatility is markedly skewed, with the $62,000 put at 46.3% against the $76,000 call at 35.5%, a gap of 10.8 points. Max pain, by the author's own calculation, sits at $78,000, some 13.1% above the current price. DVOL eased from 40.1 on Thursday to 39.8 on Friday.

 

Sentiment weakened in step. On alternative.me's Fear and Greed Index, the reading fell from 29 on November 11 to 28 and then to 20 by November 13. Bitcoin dominance rose to 60.5% against a total crypto market capitalisation near $2.45 trillion.

 

Readers wanting to set these timestamps against the tape can mark November 10 and November 13 on the intraday chart on the BTC price and market data page, while the BTC perpetual futures market carries funding and open interest side by side, and the bitcoin spot purchase route suits readers focused only on spot allocation. Spot and futures markets on MEXC typically see short-lived shifts in liquidity and spreads through dense data windows.

 

 

Three scenarios map to different levels and confirmation conditions.

 

In the first, the 200-week average holds. Confirmation requires weekly closes above $67,993, followed by a sustained reclaim of $70,000 and then a challenge of the $72,585 to $73,078 confluence. Until that zone is reclaimed, any rebound remains below five moving averages and constitutes repair within a declining structure rather than a reversal. One set of references calculated from daily closes treats a break above $80,000 as the threshold confirming a trend reversal, 16.0% above the current price.

 

In the second, price oscillates around $67,993 into the December meeting. Current positioning supports this one most: negative funding, open interest contracting 10.36% in nine hours, and put strikes clustered between $69,000 and $72,000 together form a structure that grinds back and forth around spot. Implied volatility at a DVOL near 39.8 is not elevated, indicating the market prices a range rather than a collapse.

 

In the third, the 200-week average fails. References below run $65,000, the August 19 low at $64,100 and the $62,200 to $62,500 area, with Keith Alan's conditional scenario beneath that, in which a weekly RSI loss of 41.5 could lead to a test of the $57,700 cycle low. That remains a conditional statement rather than a forecast.

 

Five items sit on the watchlist. The December 9 meeting now carries 96.3% odds, so the variable is not whether rates rise but the path the dot plot sets out. Strategy's removal from the MSCI USA Index takes effect after the close on November 30, involving mechanical selling by passive money. The short-term holder cost basis at $75,691 marks potential relief selling on any rebound. Whether stablecoin supply stops contracting at $14.2 billion a month determines purchasing power. And whether IBIT's daily flow turns positive matters because for a fortnight that one fund has been equivalent to the entire ETF complex.

 

 

What this week most invites is reading the ETF outflows as institutions leaving collectively. Broken apart, IBIT accounted for $1.210 billion of the $1.2817 billion that left between November 2 and 6, or 94.4%, and on November 9 the complex shed $201 million while IBIT alone shed $213.23 million, meaning every other fund combined took in about $12.23 million. That is not an industry selling but one fund being redeemed, and a single product's redemption can reflect an allocation change or a market maker unwinding a hedge, implications that differ entirely for price. More to the point, the pace has already slowed from $256.3 million a session to $198.7 million, down 22.5%.

 

On the chart, the informative figure is not the size of the decline but $493. Price pierced the 200-week average by only 0.73% and then recovered to 1.42% above it, in the first test of that line in eleven weeks and a shallow touch at that. At the same time, first resistance overhead is the 200-day average at $73,040, the 21-week at $73,078 and the November 10 low at $72,585 converging inside a 0.68% band. Support just confirmed once below and three lines stacked above describes a range rather than a trend, which is consistent with implied volatility pricing a DVOL near 39.8.

 

Derivatives positioning has tilted bearish to the point where the reverse risk deserves attention. Of 285 funding settlements since August 10 only 23 were negative, or 8.1%, and the current reading sits 53% deeper than the previous low; longs made up 88.9% of 24-hour liquidations; and the heaviest put strikes cluster between $69,000 and $72,000, which is where price already trades. The more uniform leverage becomes, the more readily any piece of news that lands better than feared triggers a squeeze in the other direction. This is not a reason to be bullish, but it does mean the marginal cost of a further decline is rising, because the positions willing to chase it are already in place.

 

Setting the macro back in, the causal chain this week is clear: October CPI came in a tenth above forecast on both measures, December hike odds moved from 76.3% to 96.3%, and bitcoin inside a tightening cycle has lost the transmission channel through which weak data used to read as good news. The final leg on November 13 came from Nvidia's leadership change, whose closing decline was 11.1 times that of the Nasdaq Composite, marking a single-stock spillover rather than broad risk reduction. For judging direction from here, the path the December 9 dot plot sets out matters more than the hike itself, and the $75,691 short-term holder cost basis will form the first real block of supply in any rebound.

 

 

 

The November 13 session low was $67,500, with price recovering to near $68,960 and down about 3% on the day. The 200-week simple moving average sits at $67,993, pierced that session by $493 or 0.73% before price closed back 1.42% above it. First resistance overhead is the confluence of the 200-day average at $73,040, the 21-week at $73,078 and the November 10 low at $72,585, spanning just 0.68%.

 

 

This average has repeatedly served as the reference point for cycle lows and has acted as both support and resistance through bear phases. Bitcoin traded around it from March to October 2023 and again from June to mid-August 2026, and the last touch before this was August 19, making November 13 the first test in roughly eleven weeks. Records show that decisive weekly closes back above it have tended to precede sharper rallies.

 

 

October CPI rose 0.4% month on month against a 0.3% forecast and core rose 0.3% against 0.2%, both a tenth above expectations, after which the probability of a 25-basis-point hike on December 9 moved from 76.3% to 96.3%. The final leg on November 13 had a separate source: Nvidia announced Jensen Huang had stepped down with immediate effect, and its shares fell more than 13% intraday to close 4.34% lower while the Nasdaq Composite fell 0.39%.

 

 

Net outflows ran $1.2817 billion from November 2 to 6, the largest single week since late June, but BlackRock's IBIT alone accounted for $1.210 billion, or 94.4%. On November 9 the complex shed $201 million while IBIT alone shed $213.23 million, meaning the other funds combined took in about $12.23 million. The three sessions through November 11 averaged $198.7 million of outflows a session, 22.5% slower than the prior week's $256.3 million pace.

 

 

CryptoQuant puts it at $75,691, leaving the current price 8.89% or $6,731 beneath it. Coins last moved between one and three months ago carry an average cost near $79,300, putting price 13.04% below that. Together these indicate recently acquired supply sits at an unrealised loss, which makes $75,691 a zone of potential relief selling on any rebound.

 

 

Funding on the largest bitcoin perpetual market turned to -0.0064% and then -0.0072%, the lowest since early August, and of 285 settlements since August 10 only 23 were negative, or 8.1%, with the current reading 53% deeper than the previous low. Open interest on that venue fell from $3.86 billion to $3.46 billion in nine hours, down 10.36%. Liquidations exceeded $720 million over 24 hours with longs above $640 million, or 88.9%.

 

 

For the November 27 expiry, calls total 41,950 BTC against puts of 39,618 BTC for a notional near $5.6 billion and a put-to-call ratio of 0.94, against 0.72 for December 25. The largest put strikes are $58,000, $69,000, $70,000 and $72,000, three of which sit at or just above the current price, while the largest call strike is $90,000. The $62,000 put carries 46.3% implied volatility against 35.5% for the $76,000 call, a gap of 10.8 points.

 

 

Attackers still hold roughly $3.3 billion in unfreezable assets including 18,270 BTC, worth about $1.26 billion at current prices and equal to 0.98 times the entire net ETF outflow of the November 2 to 6 week. That is unrealised potential supply, and nothing available supports a judgment on whether or when it would be sold, so it belongs on the record as background risk rather than as selling pressure already in the market.

 

 

The Federal Reserve meets December 9 with hike odds already at 96.3%, so the variable is the path indicated by the dot plot rather than the hike itself. Strategy's removal from the MSCI USA Index takes effect after the close on November 30, involving mechanical passive selling. Beyond that, watch whether stablecoin supply stops contracting at $14.2 billion a month and whether IBIT's daily flow turns positive.

 

 

This article is for general information only and does not constitute investment, financial, legal or tax advice, nor any recommendation to buy or sell. The technical indicators, moving averages, support and resistance levels and derivatives data cited are point-in-time third-party snapshots whose calculation methods and coverage differ between providers, the conditional scenarios and target levels quoted are the statements of the analysts named rather than forecasts, and technical analysis cannot predict price movements. Crypto assets and leveraged products are highly volatile, the period described here included a single-session decline above 5% and more than $720 million of liquidations, and losses can exceed the initial outlay. Readers should verify the original data sources and judge independently, consulting a qualified professional where appropriate. MEXC operates in compliance with applicable laws and regulations and does not offer services to residents of restricted jurisdictions.

 

 

MEXC Editorial Team provides the latest platform updates, product launches, trading feature guides, and industry insights. With a focus on developments in the global crypto market, it delivers transparent information, professional data, and forward-looking analysis. Both beginners and experienced traders can find firsthand updates, in-depth observations, and official announcements related to the MEXC ecosystem.

 

 

 

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