US August CPI Beats Expectations, Rate Hike Probability Surges to 90%【MEXC Alpha Trader – Daily Market Brief (September 15, 2026)】

I. Macro & Market Sentiment

• Market Data: BTC $77,926 (+1.11%) | ETH $2,515 (+0.94%) | SOL $102 (+2.15%)
• Market Sentiment: Funding Rate +0.0041% | Fear & Greed Index 69 (Greed)
• Inflation & Rate Hikes: U.S. August CPI accelerated again, with non-seasonally adjusted CPI rising 0.4% month-over-month and core CPI increasing 0.3%. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield is approaching the 5% threshold, while the probability of a Fed rate hike this week has risen to 90%. JPMorgan expects 25bp hikes in both September and December 2026, Goldman Sachs expects a 25bp hike in September, while Citigroup notes that the current macro environment closely resembles the 1988–1989 tightening cycle, which saw 16 consecutive rate hikes. Read more
• AI Regulation Politicization: Anthropic CEO called for a slowdown in frontier AI research, and the issue became a focal point of the U.S. midterm elections within 48 hours. S&P 500 futures fell 0.6%, the Nasdaq declined 1.2%, South Korea's KOSPI opened down 3.14% (SK Hynix -5%, Samsung Electronics -3.6%), and the Nikkei 225 opened down 0.64%. Read more

II. Trading Signals / Hot Topics

[US Stocks Focus] U.S. Tech Sector | AI Slowdown Debate Triggers Policy Uncertainty, Asia-Pacific Tech Stocks Lead Adjustment

AI safety concerns have rapidly become politicized and are influencing the midterm elections, with Trump, Obama, and House leaders quickly taking positions. Markets interpreted this as a potential shift in the regulatory environment, while sharp declines in Asia-Pacific technology stocks were the first to reflect growing risk-off sentiment. The Trump administration plans to remove power plant climate pollution restrictions to meet the AI industry's electricity demand.

Analysis: The politicization of AI regulation is fundamentally a policy uncertainty shock. The adjustment in Asia-Pacific technology stocks (South Korea's KOSPI -3.14%, Japan's Nikkei 225 -0.64%) may foreshadow further pressure on the U.S. technology sector. If energy policy restrictions are relaxed, the move could partially offset rising AI infrastructure costs.

Further reading: 1 2 3

[Today's Focus] ARB / ZRO / STRK | Major Token Unlocks This Week, ZRO Single Unlock Represents 4.22% of Circulating Supply

Multiple projects face token unlocks this week, with ZRO unlocking approximately $25.84 million on September 20 (4.22% of circulating supply), CONX unlocking approximately $13.2 million on September 15 (1.41% of circulating supply), and ARB unlocking approximately $12.28 million on September 16 (1.59% of circulating supply).

Analysis: ZRO and CONX unlock amounts are substantial and represent relatively high percentages of circulating supply. Historical patterns show that large unlocks typically create selling-pressure expectations before and after unlock events, warranting attention to short-term liquidity changes in the relevant tokens.

Further reading: 1

[On-Chain] Robinhood Chain | Revenue Down Over 90% from Peak, Momentum Rapidly Fading

Robinhood Chain revenue has declined continuously since September 7, with daily revenue falling to $436,000 (down over 90% from a peak of $5.44 million), DEX trading volume dropping to $1.243 billion (down over 50% from a peak of $2.611 billion), and gas revenue declining to approximately $800,000 (down 86.7% from a peak of $6.04 million).

Analysis: Across-the-board declines in Robinhood Chain's core metrics reflect a rapid deterioration in on-chain activity. New-chain hype cycles typically exhibit one-sided liquidity during the launch phase, with capital entering quickly and exiting even faster. Current data suggests that ecosystem tokens may face liquidity exhaustion risk.

Further reading: 1

III. Regulation & Major Events

• United States | Senate Republicans released a new version of the CLARITY Act. Trump agreed to approximately 80% of the proposed ethics provisions, including divesting substantial crypto-related financial interests or placing them in a blind trust, while allowing state attorneys general to participate in enforcement. The probability of the CLARITY Act passing this year on predict.fun briefly rose 10% to 33%. The Senate will hold a key procedural vote this Tuesday. Read more
• United States | Coinbase is partnering with Moov to help more than 1,000 U.S. community banks access stablecoin functionality, enabling faster settlement, lower costs, and real-time access to funds. Read more
• Global | The Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication (Swift) is advancing broader blockchain adoption and has launched a pilot with 17 global banks, including Citigroup and MUFG Bank, using tokenized deposits to enable 24/7 instant cross-border remittances. Read more
• Security Incident | On September 12, a newly activated EOA address launched a proposal attack on Ampleforth, requesting the transfer of $2.5 million USDC from the treasury to the proposer. At a price of $0.27, approximately $160,000 would be sufficient to secure the votes required for passage. As of publication, the proposal remained in Pending status. Read more

IV. Platform Exclusive Benefits

• Loss Compensation Campaign (Phase 3) (Futures)
• August Futures Team Competition (Futures)
• Alpha Trader September Welcome Campaign (Futures)

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Recommended Reading: MEXC On-Chain Daily Report: World’s First Bitcoin-Backed Digital Credit ETF Set to Launch

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