TSMC (TSM) reports third-quarter 2026 results on Thursday, October 15, with its earnings conference starting at 14:00 Taiwan time (02:00 ET).Unlike most companies, TSMC has already told the market itsTSMC (TSM) reports third-quarter 2026 results on Thursday, October 15, with its earnings conference starting at 14:00 Taiwan time (02:00 ET).Unlike most companies, TSMC has already told the market its
TSMC Q3 2026 Earnings Preview: Oct 15 Date, AI Demand and Margins
TSMC (TSM) reports third-quarter 2026 results on Thursday, October 15, with its earnings conference starting at 14:00 Taiwan time (02:00 ET).
Unlike most companies, TSMC has already told the market its revenue: monthly sales put Q3 at a record NT$1.494 trillion, above the top of its own guidance.
That shifts the focus of the call to three questions: whether margins held up through the 2nm ramp, how strong fourth-quarter guidance will be, and whether capital spending keeps rising.
When does TSMC report Q3 2026 earnings?
TSMC will hold its Q3 2026 earnings conference on Thursday, October 15, 2026, after a quiet period that runs from October 5 to October 14. The call time in major time zones:
- Taiwan / Beijing / Singapore: October 15, 14:00
- India (IST): October 15, 11:30
- London (BST): October 15, 07:00
- US Eastern (ET): October 15, 02:00
- US Pacific (PT): October 14, 23:00
The call starts after Taiwan's stock market closes at 13:30 local time and before US pre-market trading opens, so neither TSMC's Taiwan shares nor its US-listed ADR can react until hours later.
What did TSMC guide for Q3 2026?
In its Q2 2026 earnings release, TSMC gave the following Q3 2026 guidance:
- Revenue: US$44.6 billion to US$45.8 billion, based on an exchange rate of NT$32.0 per US dollar
- Gross margin: 65.0% to 67.0%, down from 67.7% in Q2
- Operating margin: 56.0% to 58.0%, down from 60.3% in Q2
Management guided margins lower because it expects the steep ramp of its 2-nanometer process to dilute gross margin by about 3 to 4 percentage points in the second half, CFO Wendell Huang said on the Q2 earnings call.
Revenue is already known: what the monthly numbers show
TSMC reported September revenue of NT$511.86 billion, down 0.6% from August but up 54.6% from a year earlier.
Adding July, August and September from TSMC's monthly revenue table gives Q3 revenue of NT$1,494.24 billion, up 50.9% year over year and 17.6% from Q2's NT$1,270.38 billion.
At the NT$32.0 exchange rate TSMC used for guidance, that equals roughly US$46.7 billion, about US$0.9 billion above the top of the guided range.
Revenue is not the open question on October 15; profitability and outlook are.
What counts as a beat on October 15?
These are the benchmarks the results will be measured against, in order of how much they are likely to move the stock:
- Gross margin: above 67.0% means TSMC absorbed 2nm ramp costs better than planned; 65.0% to 67.0% is in line; below 65.0% signals heavier dilution.
- Q4 revenue guidance: the roughly US$46.7 billion Q3 base is the new bar; a guidance midpoint above it signals that AI demand is still accelerating into year-end.
- Net profit: LSEG analysts expect Q3 net profit to rise 64% year over year to NT$740.8 billion, Reuters reported on October 8.
- Capital spending: TSMC raised its 2026 capital budget to US$60 billion to US$64 billion in July, up from US$52 billion to US$56 billion, according to the Q2 call transcript; any move toward the top of that range, or early 2027 color, will be read as a signal on AI demand.
- Full-year growth: management guided 2026 US-dollar revenue growth of slightly above 40% on the same call, while January-to-September revenue in New Taiwan dollars is already up 41.1%, leaving room for an upgrade.
Why this call matters for AI stocks this week
TSMC reports just days after concerns about AI infrastructure funding hit chip and optical stocks, with Lumentum and Ciena falling about 10% on October 12.
TSM was not spared: the ADR closed at $444.35 on October 12, down 1.98% and its third straight daily decline.
High-performance computing made up 66% of TSMC's Q2 revenue, and CEO C.C. Wei said on the July call that packaging capacity was so tight it was limiting customers' growth.
That makes its comments on AI demand, advanced packaging capacity and capital spending a read-through for Nvidia, AMD and Broadcom, and a direct test of the funding worries behind this week's selloff.
MEXC data: TSM futures ahead of the call
MEXC's TSM/USDT perpetual futures trade around the clock, including the hours when TSMC's results land and both stock markets are closed. Snapshot taken at 14:19 Beijing time (02:19 ET) on October 13, 2026:
- Last price: $441.10, about 0.73% below the $444.35 October 12 close
- 24-hour range: $440.83 to $460.15; the high was set before the US session opened on October 12, and the low came during Asian hours on October 13
- Funding rate: +0.0010%, close to zero, showing no strong lean between long and short positions before the call
At the time of the snapshot, futures were trading at the bottom of their 24-hour range, about 4% below the pre-US-session high, as the October 12 selloff in AI hardware stocks carried into Asian hours.
Note that 24/7 trading does not mean 24/7 price discovery: in the hours after the call, futures prices can diverge from where TSM opens on the NYSE.
FAQ
When is TSMC's Q3 2026 earnings date?
TSMC holds its Q3 2026 earnings conference on Thursday, October 15, 2026, at 14:00 Taiwan time, which is 02:00 ET on October 15 and 23:00 PT on October 14.
What is TSMC's Q3 2026 revenue guidance?
TSMC guided Q3 revenue of US$44.6 billion to US$45.8 billion. Its monthly reports already add up to about US$46.7 billion at the guidance exchange rate, above the top of the range.
What gross margin is TSMC expected to report?
TSMC guided a Q3 gross margin of 65.0% to 67.0%, below Q2's 67.7%, because of dilution from the 2nm ramp. A result above 67.0% would be a beat.
How could TSMC's results affect Nvidia and other AI stocks?
TSMC manufactures most leading AI chips, so its Q4 guidance and capital spending plans are read as a signal on AI demand for Nvidia, AMD and Broadcom, especially after the October 12 selloff in AI hardware stocks.
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