Key Insights:
- A Bitcoin price prediction based on the fair value model places Bitcoin’s end-year target at $194,000.
- A recent exchange report by Bitfinex says the crypto market is now operating on a “leaner leverage base,” making sudden, liquidation-driven crashes less likely.
- BTC/USD is closer to the bottom than to the top based on the Bitcoin Sharpe ratio.
A Bitcoin price prediction based on the fair value model places Bitcoin’s end-year target at $194,000.
However, the price of the largest crypto traded below the mid-point of the target at the time of writing.
The good news is that the BTC/USD pair was able to hit its highest level in two weeks amid intensifying rumors of a pro-crypto U.S. Federal Reserve chair.
Meanwhile, a new report by Bitfinex exchange noted that “extreme deleveraging” and other market signals could help Bitcoin hold its ground and potentially move higher.
End Year Bitcoin Price Prediction At $194K
Bitcoin (BTC) price remains in a narrow consolidation range, but the overal valuation model hints at a different story placing a Bitcoin price prediction target at $194,000 by end of year based on the fair value model.
According to the chart, the fair-value trajectory of BTC USD rises sharply into December, with the model placing a year-end fair value near $194,000.
What is most notable is the expansion of the upper deviation bands heading into December. In the past, Bitcoin has reached these levels during strong macro cycles, especially when liquidity improves or ETF inflows pick up.
This area represents the model’s “overheated but achievable” scenario. On the downside, the lower bands remain constructive. Even the −2SD level trends upward toward the mid $140,000s by year-end.
The steady upward tilt across all bands shows a bullish bias. The model suggests that the long-term trend would only be threatened if Bitcoin fell well below $110,000.
Bitfinex Claims Bitcoin Market Is Operating On a Cautious Leverage Base
A recent exchange report by Bitfinex says the crypto market is now operating on a “leaner leverage base,” making sudden, liquidation-driven crashes less likely.
Back on October 10, roughly $19 billion vanished from what many traders called an overleveraged market.
As a result, the sell-off pushed Bitcoin and the general crypto market into a downtrend, with Bitcoin price finding a low near $82,000 on November 21.
“This setup shows that the market’s remaining leverage is relatively well-contained,” Bitfinex said. “It reduces systemic risk and increases the chances for a more stable consolidation phase.”
The late-year pullback, followed by a rebound, has fueled debate among holders. Some now question whether the traditional four-year BTC USD price cycle still matters.
Under that model, the cycle top would have appeared near the October all-time high of $125,100.
BTC price may continue its recent rebound after gaining 8% in a single day on Wednesday. Analysts point to signs that a local bottom could already be in place, further cementing the bullish Bitcoin price prediction.
The report claimed that extreme deleveraging, capitulation by short-term holders, and early signs of seller exhaustion have set the stage for a stabilization phase and a relief bounce.
Bitcoin Price Prediction: BTC is Nearer to the Bottom
Market analyst Quinten Francois said on an X Bitcoin price prediction post that BTC USD price is closer to the bottom than to the top based on the Sharpe ratio.
Looking ahead, the year’s end remains uncertain. December has usually been quieter for Bitcoin price, averaging just 4.69% returns since 2013, according to CoinGlass.
Yet recent price movements have defied seasonal patterns. November fell 17.67%, despite historically being the strongest month for Bitcoin price, which typically delivers gains of 41.12%.
Source: https://www.thecoinrepublic.com/2025/12/05/fair-value-model-points-to-bitcoin-price-prediction-of-194k-by-2025-end/
