Will the Senate Pass a Crypto Bill Before the Midterms? Time Is Running Out

TLDR

• The Senate Banking Committee passed the Clarity Act 15-9, with two Democrats joining all Republicans
• The bill now heads to the Senate floor, where it needs 60 votes to pass quickly
• Lawmakers have a window of June to early August to pass the bill before Congress recesses
• If the bill misses that window, it may not pass until a post-election lame-duck session
• NYDIG warns the bill could fail entirely if Democrats win Senate control in the midterms

The U.S. Senate Banking Committee voted 15-9 on Thursday to advance the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act to the Senate floor. Two Democrats joined all Republicans in the vote, giving the bill a bipartisan push.

The bill is designed to set out how U.S. regulators would oversee the crypto market. It is considered one of the most important pieces of crypto legislation this year.

For the bill to pass the Senate floor quickly, it needs 60 votes. Republicans hold 53 seats, meaning at least seven Democrats must vote in favor.

Two Democratic senators — Ruben Gallego and Angela Alsobrooks — voted yes in committee. Several others said they might support it on the floor if certain changes are made.

What Democrats Want Changed

Some Democrats want stronger protections against crime and sanctions evasion. Others are pushing for an ethics provision that would bar senior government officials from profiting off crypto business ties.

Senators said they are close to an agreement on the ethics issue, but no final details have been confirmed. Any deal will also need White House approval.

Two amendments were not debated during Thursday’s hearing. One was described by Senator Elizabeth Warren as having law enforcement support. The other related to how yield rewards are treated under the bill.

The next step is merging drafts from the Senate Banking Committee and the Senate Agriculture Committee. Cody Carbone of the Digital Chamber said negotiations on the Agriculture side are still ongoing.

A Tight Timeline

Greg Cipolaro, head of research at NYDIG, said the bill’s realistic passage window is June through early August. A White House crypto adviser had earlier set a July 4 target.

Congress goes on recess from late July to early September. After that, the focus shifts to midterm elections in November, when Senate leadership is unlikely to schedule a contested floor vote.

If the bill misses that window, the next chance would be a post-election lame-duck session — but only if Republicans hold the Senate.

Current polling shows a tight race for Senate control, with some forecasts giving Republicans a slight edge and others calling key seats tossups.

Cipolaro warned that if Democrats take the Senate, the current bill is unlikely to move forward when the new Congress begins in January.

If the bill does pass, Cipolaro said it would give institutional investors the legal clarity they need to enter the crypto market more confidently. It would also classify Bitcoin as a commodity under the Commodity Futures Trading Commission.

If it fails, the crypto industry would continue to operate under what Cipolaro called “permanent jurisdictional ambiguity.”

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