The Odds Of A First-Time Champion In 2025 College Football Playoff

This Sunday, the College Football Playoff Selection Committee revealed the 12-team field for the 2025 postseason. Among the programs selected are five that have never won a national championship. That group includes the No. 1 overall seed, the Indiana Hoosiers, along with No. 4 seed Texas Tech, No. 5 seed Oregon, No. 11 seed Tulane, and No. 12 seed James Madison. While powerhouse, blue chip programs like Ohio State, Alabama, and Georgia remain in the hunt, the presence of these title-less teams adds a compelling twist to this year’s playoff.

Path To The College Football Playoff

While each of the five teams without a national championship shares the same goal, their roads to the College Football Playoff were different. Four of the five arrive as conference champions while Oregon received the lone at-large bid of the bunch.

Indiana Hoosiers

Indiana enters the College Football Playoff as the No. 1 overall seed and the only undefeated team in the country. The Hoosiers ran the table in the regular season and capped their historic campaign with a statement win over Ohio State in the Big Ten Championship Game, securing both a conference title and their first-ever CFP berth.

Texas Tech Red Raiders

Texas Tech’s path to the College Football Playoff saw the Red Raiders claim the Big 12 title and a spot in the top four. Their 12–1 record included wins over multiple ranked opponents (including BYU twice). Their lone loss came on the road in mid-October against Arizona State, a game played without starting quarterback Behren Morton, who was sidelined due to injury.

Oregon Ducks

Oregon arrives to the College Football Playoff in its second season as a Big Ten member, finishing 11–1 and earning the No. 5 seed. The Ducks posted key wins over Penn State (ranked No. 3 at the time), Iowa, and USC with their only loss coming at home to Indiana.

Tulane Green Wave

Tulane captured the American Athletic Conference championship with a win over a Top 25 North Texas team. While both programs have head coaches departing for Power Four jobs, Tulane’s Jon Sumrall will remain on the sideline to lead the Green Wave through their first-ever College Football Playoff appearance. Tulane defeated ACC Champion Duke in mid-September.

James Madison Dukes

James Madison earned the final playoff spot at 12–1, benefiting from a chaotic ACC title race. Due to unusual tiebreakers, 7–5 Duke advanced to the ACC Championship Game and upset Virginia. That result that left the ACC champion unranked in the final CFP standings and opened the door for a second non-Power 4 conference champion to enter the playoffs.

College Football Playoff Odds

To estimate the probability that a team with no previous national championships wins the 2025 College Football Playoff, the analysis began with futures odds from major sportsbooks. These odds reflect both public expectations and the underlying team strength models used by oddsmakers. Each team’s odds were converted into implied probabilities using the standard formula: Implied Probability = 100 / (Odds + 100).

The five playoff teams without a national championship and their corresponding futures odds are:

• Indiana (+290)
• Texas Tech (+900)
• Oregon (+900)
• James Madison (+75,000)
• Tulane (+80,000)

Because sportsbooks include a built-in margin, known as the vig, the total implied probability across all teams typically exceeds 100%. To correct for this, the implied probabilities were normalized so the total across the 12-team playoff field added up to exactly 100%. This produced a cleaner, margin-free estimate of each team’s true title chances:

• Indiana (23.91%)
• Texas Tech (9.33%)
• Oregon (9.33%)
• James Madison (0.13%)
• Tulane (0.12%)

Combined, these five teams account for a 42.80% chance of producing a first-time national champion.

A Real Shot at History in the College Football Playoff

With five programs seeking their first national title and a combined 42.80% probability of one of them winning it all, the 2025 College Football Playoff stands wide-open for a Cinderella story. Whether the sport crowns a new champion or another blueblood reinforces the status quo, the potential for a breakthrough is undeniable and exciting. For fans of the underdog, this will be a fun postseason.