The yen carry trade unwind has been hovering over markets lately — the kind of “plumbing” story that most people ignore right up until volatility spikes and everythingThe yen carry trade unwind has been hovering over markets lately — the kind of “plumbing” story that most people ignore right up until volatility spikes and everything

Bitcoin Under Pressure As Yen Carry Trade Unwind Hits Global Markets

2025/12/17 04:00

The yen carry trade unwind has been hovering over markets lately — the kind of “plumbing” story that most people ignore right up until volatility spikes and everything suddenly feels connected. Graham Stephan put it into a Bitcoin and crypto-friendly frame yesterday.

In a Dec. 15 post, the popular YouTuber described the yen carry trade as Wall Street’s long-running “infinite money glitch” — and argued it’s breaking down just as the Fed is signaling a shift in its outlook for next year. “Wall Street found an ‘infinite money’ glitch 20 years ago. They called it the Yen Carry Trade. It just broke, right when the Fed announced its plans for next year,” Stephan wrote.

What The Yen Carry Trade Unwind Means For Bitcoin

He presented it as a straightforward trade that scaled because the size was big enough to matter. “For decades, the ‘Yen Carry Trade’ has been the secret engine behind global liquidity. The mechanics were simple enough that a child could understand them, but profitable enough to move trillions of dollars.”

Stephan then laid out the basic steps in plain English: borrow cheaply in Japan, rotate into higher-yield US assets, keep the spread. “Borrow Cheap: Investors borrowed money in Japan, where interest rates were effectively 0%… Invest Abroad: They took that ‘free money’ and bought US Treasuries paying 4-5%… Profit: They pocketed the difference without using any of their own money.”

His argument is that the setup turns toxic when the rate differential compresses and the currency leg moves the wrong way. He framed the timing as especially awkward for risk assets: Japan tightening to support the yen while the Fed eases. “Japan is finally raising rates to save its own currency right at the time when the Fed has started slashing rates. The gap between the rates is getting squeezed. The ‘free money’ isn’t free anymore.”

From there, he leaned into the mechanical consequence: when funding gets more expensive and the currency shifts, leveraged positions don’t get a long debate window — they get cut. “As Japanese rates rise, that trade flips. Investors are now being forced to sell their US assets to pay back their Yen loans. Instead of money flowing into the US markets, it is being sucked out to pay debts in Tokyo. This is a massive liquidity drain happening right under our noses.”

That’s also where his Bitcoin read comes in. Not “Bitcoin is broken,” but that Bitcoin is where risk appetite and leverage tend to show up early — and where forced selling can look brutal when it hits.

Stephan expanded on the same theme in a Substack post, pulling the Fed into the timeline more directly and warning readers to brace for turbulence. “You better get ready for a bumpy ride,” he wrote, claiming the Fed cut rates “for the third time this year,” and that the central bank “has officially ended ‘Quantitative Tightening’ and is quietly moving back toward printing money.”

He added a “pilot flying blind” angle as well, arguing the Fed cut “without any inflation data whatsoever” due to shutdown-related disruptions. He attached a specific interpretation of balance-sheet policy, too: “Finally, the most important news of the day: Quantitative Tightening (QT) is over… They even announced they will buy $40 billion of Treasuries over the next 30 days. The tightening era is dead. The ‘stimulus’ era is now being rebooted, and the money printer is being turned on.”

Taken together, his thesis ends up with Bitcoin sitting between two forces that don’t necessarily move on the same clock: a potentially sharp deleveraging impulse from carry unwinds, and a slower easing impulse if policy conditions loosen. One can hit price violently in a short window; the other can take time to express itself cleanly.

Stephan closed with a familiar Bitcoin-with-training-wheels framing: volatility is normal, drawdowns happen, and mining economics create a reference point. “Bitcoin isn’t broken. It’s just volatile, and this isn’t the first time this is happening. Statistically, Bitcoin has seen drastic crashes of 50% or more, but it has never dropped below its “electrical cost” (the cost to mine one coin), which sits around $71,000 today. If we get close to that number, history suggests it’s a strong buy zone,” he concluded.

At press time, BTC traded at $87,082.

Bitcoin price
Market Opportunity
Polytrade Logo
Polytrade Price(TRADE)
$0.06897
$0.06897$0.06897
-1.97%
USD
Polytrade (TRADE) Live Price Chart
Disclaimer: The articles reposted on this site are sourced from public platforms and are provided for informational purposes only. They do not necessarily reflect the views of MEXC. All rights remain with the original authors. If you believe any content infringes on third-party rights, please contact [email protected] for removal. MEXC makes no guarantees regarding the accuracy, completeness, or timeliness of the content and is not responsible for any actions taken based on the information provided. The content does not constitute financial, legal, or other professional advice, nor should it be considered a recommendation or endorsement by MEXC.

You May Also Like

Ethereum unveils roadmap focusing on scaling, interoperability, and security at Japan Dev Conference

Ethereum unveils roadmap focusing on scaling, interoperability, and security at Japan Dev Conference

The post Ethereum unveils roadmap focusing on scaling, interoperability, and security at Japan Dev Conference appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. Key Takeaways Ethereum’s new roadmap was presented by Vitalik Buterin at the Japan Dev Conference. Short-term priorities include Layer 1 scaling and raising gas limits to enhance transaction throughput. Vitalik Buterin presented Ethereum’s development roadmap at the Japan Dev Conference today, outlining the blockchain platform’s priorities across multiple timeframes. The short-term goals focus on scaling solutions and increasing Layer 1 gas limits to improve transaction capacity. Mid-term objectives target enhanced cross-Layer 2 interoperability and faster network responsiveness to create a more seamless user experience across different scaling solutions. The long-term vision emphasizes building a secure, simple, quantum-resistant, and formally verified minimalist Ethereum network. This approach aims to future-proof the platform against emerging technological threats while maintaining its core functionality. The roadmap presentation comes as Ethereum continues to compete with other blockchain platforms for market share in the smart contract and decentralized application space. Source: https://cryptobriefing.com/ethereum-roadmap-scaling-interoperability-security-japan/
Share
BitcoinEthereumNews2025/09/18 00:25
MMDA, sleep health organization launch drowsy driving campaign ahead of holidays

MMDA, sleep health organization launch drowsy driving campaign ahead of holidays

The Metro Manila Development Authority (MMDA) and the Philippine Society of Sleep Medicine (PSSM) on Wednesday launch an awareness campaign to prevent drowsy driving
Share
Bworldonline2025/12/18 12:05
A Netflix ‘KPop Demon Hunters’ Short Film Has Been Rated For Release

A Netflix ‘KPop Demon Hunters’ Short Film Has Been Rated For Release

The post A Netflix ‘KPop Demon Hunters’ Short Film Has Been Rated For Release appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. KPop Demon Hunters Netflix Everyone has wondered what may be the next step for KPop Demon Hunters as an IP, given its record-breaking success on Netflix. Now, the answer may be something exactly no one predicted. According to a new filing with the MPA, something called Debut: A KPop Demon Hunters Story has been rated PG by the ratings body. It’s listed alongside some other films, and this is obviously something that has not been publicly announced. A short film could be well, very short, a few minutes, and likely no more than ten. Even that might be pushing it. Using say, Pixar shorts as a reference, most are between 4 and 8 minutes. The original movie is an hour and 36 minutes. The “Debut” in the title indicates some sort of flashback, perhaps to when HUNTR/X first arrived on the scene before they blew up. Previously, director Maggie Kang has commented about how there were more backstory components that were supposed to be in the film that were cut, but hinted those could be explored in a sequel. But perhaps some may be put into a short here. I very much doubt those scenes were fully produced and simply cut, but perhaps they were finished up for this short film here. When would Debut: KPop Demon Hunters theoretically arrive? I’m not sure the other films on the list are much help. Dead of Winter is out in less than two weeks. Mother Mary does not have a release date. Ne Zha 2 came out earlier this year. I’ve only seen news stories saying The Perfect Gamble was supposed to come out in Q1 2025, but I’ve seen no evidence that it actually has. KPop Demon Hunters Netflix It could be sooner rather than later as Netflix looks to capitalize…
Share
BitcoinEthereumNews2025/09/18 02:23