Crypto market prediction ahead of U.S. CPI data release tomorrow

Crypto markets are entering a cautious holding pattern as traders prepare for the upcoming U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, a key macroeconomic indicator that could shape expectations for interest rate policy and risk asset performance.

Crypto market eyes CPI data as Bitcoin rebounds toward $70K

Bitcoin (BTC), the largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization, was trading near $70,000 on Tuesday after rebounding from February lows.

Market participants are closely watching the inflation data due on Wednesday, which could influence the Federal Reserve’s next policy moves and drive volatility across global financial markets.

Technical charts show Bitcoin recovering modestly after a prolonged pullback earlier this year. The daily chart indicates the asset fell from highs near $95,000 in January amid tariffs and Iran tensions. Bitcoin then stabilized around the $60,000–$65,000 range in February.

Since then, Bitcoin has gradually climbed back toward the $70,000 level, a zone analysts view as an important resistance area.

Momentum indicators suggest improving sentiment. The Money Flow Index (MFI) on the daily timeframe has climbed toward the mid-60s, signaling strengthening buying pressure but not yet entering overbought territory.

Meanwhile, the Accumulation/Distribution indicator has stabilized after a sharp drop earlier in February, suggesting that selling pressure may be easing as investors accumulate positions ahead of the macro event.

Macro data remains the primary driver of near-term sentiment.

Historical data comparing Bitcoin’s price performance with U.S. inflation trends shows that crypto markets have often responded sharply to shifts in CPI expectations, particularly when inflation surprises alter forecasts for Federal Reserve interest rate decisions.

According to market commentary from Morningstar, economists expect that consumer prices rose 0.3% on a monthly basis in February. That would lower the annual inflation rate to 2.9% from 3.0% in January. 

Traders expect the upcoming CPI release to act as a major volatility trigger, with Bitcoin likely to test nearby resistance or revisit recent support levels depending on how the inflation data shapes market expectations.