Trump may have made a major strategic blunder in the run-up to the midterms

President Donald Trump has solidified his control over the Republican Party by successfully pushing out GOPers who criticize him in party primaries. Yet in the process, according to a recent analysis, he may cost himself the 2026 midterm elections.

“It’s far from clear that Mr. Trump’s winning streak in the Republican primaries will translate into victory in November, when the party will need the support of voters outside of Mr. Trump’s base — many of whom are deeply dissatisfied with the economy and the Iran war,” reported The New York Times’ Zolan Kanno-Youngs on Sunday. “Already, there are signs that his hold over Republicans in Washington may be slipping.”

Kanno-Youngs reported that Senate Republicans blocked both Trump’s proposed $1 billion ballroom and his proposed $1.8 billion fund for Trump supporters and Trump-linked institutions that claim to have been persecuted by Democrats.

“The split-screen illustrates an emerging paradox of the Trump presidency,” Kanno-Youngs added, after mentioning Trump’s recent string of legal defeats. “He has an iron grip on his most loyal supporters, even as his overall popularity slips.”

One former GOP party official warned that Trump’s ability to control the Republican Party and then steer it in any direction he chooses is endangering their long-time political prospects.

“The challenge of the administration right now, is the issues that they bring up, that Trump brings up, are not where voters are,” Douglas Heye, a former communications director for the Republican National Committee, told Kanno-Youngs. “They don’t need a ballroom, they don’t need a weaponization fund, they need lettuce to be affordable.”

Despite Trump traditionally having near-unanimous support among Republican voters, a recent Quinnipiac survey found that only 73 percent of Republican voters still widely approve of the job Mr. Trump is doing. His overall approval rating has been stuck in the 30s, with most voters opposing Trump’s war with Iran and blaming him for America’s ongoing economic woes. Even worse, Trump has publicly expressed indifference to voters’ concerns.

“When it comes to Iran, he said he does not think about the economic hardship of Americans — ‘not even a little bit’ — and that he does not care about the midterms,” Kanno-Youngs reported.

Since the start of his second term, Trump has successfully primaried out Republicans considered to be stronger in the general election in favor of potentially weaker ones who he perceived as more supportive of him. The targeted incumbents include Sen. Bill Cassidy (R-LA), Sen. John Cornyn (R-TX), Rep. Thomas Masie (R-KY) and a group of Indiana state legislators who opposed his gerrymandering plans.

"He is one of the least popular presidents in modern polling history, and simultaneously, the most dominant force in the Republican Party,” journalist Colby Hall, the founder of Mediaite, recently wrote in a column for his ColbyHall.com website. “Neither fact is canceling out the other. His approval numbers are collapsing again. Depending on the poll, they are now approaching the lows he hit after January 6. He is underwater on inflation, cost of living, immigration, and now Iran. The broader electorate is plainly exhausted by him, the still very high price of a gallon of gas, and the bread and eggs he promised to make cheaper on Day 1 of his second term."

Hall added, "At the exact same moment, Trump casually ended Sen. John Cornyn's political career with a single endorsement of the far more MAGA-coded Attorney General Ken Paxton in Texas. Ironically, Trump helping Paxton win the primary delivers his MAGA faithful a short-term win while putting the seat itself in real jeopardy. Democratic nominee James Talarico is a much more plausible threat to Paxton than he would have been to Cornyn, and a Republican Senate majority that looked safe a week ago no longer does."

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