KAS is positioned at a critical juncture at the $0.04 level. The downward trend supported by a daily %3.89 drop shows an oversold level like 34.57 on RSI, and both scenarios are possible due to low activity in market volume and Bitcoin’s sideways movement. This analysis ensures traders are prepared for both directions by highlighting trigger levels.
Current Market Situation
KAS price is consolidating at the $0.04 level, having experienced a %3.89 drop in the last 24 hours. The price range is narrow ($0.04 – $0.04) and volume is low at $11.13M. The trend is downward; price is trading below EMA20 ($0.05), Supertrend is giving a bearish signal, and the MACD histogram is negative. RSI at 34.57 is approaching the oversold zone, which could trigger a short-term reaction buy. In multi-timeframe (MTF) analysis, a total of 13 strong levels were identified across 1D (2 support/3 resistance), 3D (2S/2R), and 1W (3S/4R) timeframes; resistances are more dominant than supports. Critical supports are $0.0380 (score 64/100) and $0.0361 (64/100), while resistances are $0.0443 (72/100), $0.0425 (69/100), and $0.0511 (60/100). There is no recent news flow in the market, creating an environment where technical levels take center stage.
Scenario 1: Upside Scenario
How Does This Scenario Unfold?
For the upside scenario, a volume-backed breakout above the $0.0425 and $0.0443 resistance zone is essential first. This breakout could trigger a move above EMA20 ($0.05), with confirmation from positive divergence on MACD and the histogram crossing above the zero line. RSI rising above 50 and Supertrend turning bullish would strengthen momentum. A %50+ increase in volume indicates buyers entering. Clearing 1D and 3D resistances in MTF creates bullish alignment on the 1W timeframe. Bitcoin breaking $91,012 resistance would act as a catalyst. Invalidator for this scenario: Loss of $0.0380 support.
Target Levels
First target $0.0511 (previous high), followed by $0.0597 (score 25/100, Fibonacci extension). More aggressive targets around $0.0650, but volume confirmation required. Risk/reward ratio from current levels is approximately 1:2.5, appearing attractive with a $0.0380 stop-loss. Traders can access detailed charts from the KAS Spot Analysis page.
Scenario 2: Downside Scenario
Risk Factors
The downside scenario is triggered by a close below $0.0380 support. This breakdown accelerates with the MACD histogram dipping further negative and RSI falling below 30. Supertrend remains bearish, reinforcing the trend of distancing below EMA20. Increased selling pressure in volume (%30+ spike) and Bitcoin testing $89,371 support amplify the risk. In MTF, pressure from 4 resistances on 1W combined with general altcoin weakness could create a cascade effect. The no-news environment facilitates liquidity hunts. Invalidator for this scenario: Break above $0.0443 resistance.
Protection Levels
First protection $0.0361 (score 64/100), followed by $0.0236 bearish target (score 22/100). Deeper levels around $0.0300, but accelerates if BTC support breaks. Risk/reward near 1:3, with $0.0443 invalidation. For futures trading, follow KAS Futures Analysis.
Which Scenario to Watch?
Main triggers: $0.0425-$0.0443 resistance test (bullish) vs $0.0380 support breakdown (bearish). Confirmation signals: Volume increase, MACD crossover, RSI divergence. Daily closes are critical; wicks on 4H candles may signal fakeouts. Rising BTC dominance crushes altcoins, while sideways allows KAS to follow its own dynamics. Traders should prepare with stop-losses in both directions.
Bitcoin Correlation
KAS has high correlation with BTC (%0.85+); BTC is sideways at $90,718, with 24h -%2.59 drop. BTC Supertrend bearish; if $89,371 and $87,645 supports break, expect cascade below $0.0380 for KAS. Conversely, BTC surpassing $91,012-$92,446 resistances lights green for KAS upside. If BTC drops to deep $84,681 support, red alert for altcoins. Rising BTC dominance pressures KAS; traders should prioritize monitoring BTC levels.
Conclusion and Monitoring Notes
Both scenarios are balanced for KAS; oversold RSI offers bullish potential, but bearish trend and resistance cluster dominate. Monitoring points: $0.0443 breakout (bull trigger), $0.0380 loss (bear trigger), volume/BTC correlation. Follow daily/4H closes and MTF alignments. This analysis helps refine your decisions – markets are dynamic, stay flexible. Visit spot and futures pages for detailed data.
This analysis uses the market views and methodology of Chief Analyst Devrim Cacal.
Source: https://en.coinotag.com/analysis/kas-rise-or-fall-january-20-2026-scenario-analysis
