The Federal Reserve's June 16–17 FOMC meeting is happening right now, and the rate decision is not the most interesting part. Every major Wall Street institution expects the federal funds rate toThe Federal Reserve's June 16–17 FOMC meeting is happening right now, and the rate decision is not the most interesting part. Every major Wall Street institution expects the federal funds rate to
مرکز دانستنی ها/راهنماهای مبتدیان/سهام آمریکا/Is a Rate Hike Back on the Table? Next Fed Meeting Date, CME FedWatch, and Three Scenarios Explained
Is a Rate Hike Back on the Table? Next Fed Meeting Date, CME FedWatch, and Three Scenarios Explained
The Federal Reserve's June 16–17 FOMC meeting is happening right now, and the rate decision is not the most interesting part.
Every major Wall Street institution expects the federal funds rate to hold at 3.50%–3.75%.
What markets are watching is the press conference at 2:30 PM ET on June 17: Kevin Warsh takes the podium as the 17th Fed Chair, and investors get their first real read on where American monetary policy is heading for the rest of the year.
Key Takeaways
- The next Fed meeting is June 16–17, 2026, with the rate decision released at 2:00 PM ET on June 17 and Kevin Warsh's first press conference as Fed Chair at 2:30 PM ET.
- CME FedWatch data shows a 97.1% probability that the federal funds rate stays unchanged at 3.50%–3.75%, making Warsh's press conference and the updated dot plot the real variables to watch.
- Goldman Sachs Research has pushed its entire rate-cut forecast to June and December 2027, with JPMorgan, Barclays, and Morgan Stanley all forecasting no rate change through the end of 2026.
- A Reuters survey of 102 economists conducted June 4–9 found that 72 expect the federal funds rate to hold unchanged through year-end, with none predicting a cut at the June meeting.
- For crypto traders, a rate hold is historically neutral to slightly negative for Bitcoin in the short term, with CoinGecko data showing BTC declined after seven of eight FOMC meetings in 2025 even when the Fed cut rates.
- After June 17, the next FOMC meeting is July 28–29, 2026, followed by September 15–16, October 27–28, and December 8–9.
When Is the Next Fed Meeting? Full FOMC Schedule, Dates, and What Happens at 2 PM
The June 16–17 meeting is the fourth of eight scheduled this year, and it is happening as you read this.
After June 17, the next FOMC meeting is July 28–29, 2026.
Here is the complete 2026 FOMC schedule, including all remaining dates and which meetings produce a dot plot:
Date | Status | Dot Plot? |
Jan 27–28 | ✅ Completed | No |
Mar 17–18 | ✅ Completed | Yes |
Apr 28–29 | ✅ Completed | No |
Jun 16–17 | 🔴 Active Now | Yes |
Jul 28–29 | ⏳ Next | No |
Sep 15–16 | Upcoming | Yes |
Oct 27–28 | Upcoming | No |
Dec 8–9 | Upcoming | Yes |
The rate decision drops at 2:00 PM ET on the final day of each meeting.
Thirty minutes later, at 2:30 PM ET, the Fed Chair holds a live press conference streamed at federalreserve.gov.
Meeting minutes, covering the internal discussions that took place during the meeting, are released approximately three weeks after each decision.
Meetings in March, June, September, and December also include the Summary of Economic Projections (SEP), which contains the dot plot showing where each FOMC member individually projects rates heading over the coming years.
Those four meetings carry substantially more market weight than the other four because of that additional data.
Why the Next FOMC Meeting Is the Biggest Market Event of the Year
Every Fed meeting matters, but some carry weight that others do not.
The June 16–17 gathering brings together three factors that rarely align at the same time: a brand-new Federal Reserve Chair in his first meeting, a quarterly dot plot update, and an inflation backdrop that has shifted dramatically since January.
Kevin Warsh was confirmed as the 17th Chair of the Federal Reserve on May 13, 2026, in a 54–45 Senate vote, the most divisive confirmation for that role in modern history.
He was sworn in on May 22, 2026, and this week's next FOMC meeting is the first he has chaired.
His press conference on June 17 at 2:30 PM ET is, by most analyst accounts, the single most consequential piece of information markets will receive from this entire week.
Beyond Warsh's debut, the June meeting is one of four quarterly meetings per year that include an updated Summary of Economic Projections.
The dot plot, the anonymous rate forecast submitted by each individual FOMC member, will show where policymakers collectively see rates heading through the rest of the year and into 2027.
This information is not released at every meeting.
It comes only in March, June, September, and December, which is a large part of why those meetings generate more volatility than the others.
There is one more critical piece of context heading into June 17.
Meeting minutes released separately three weeks later confirmed that a majority of FOMC officials discussed the possibility that higher rates might become necessary, independent of the vote, if inflation fails to move back toward the Fed's 2% target.
That is the backdrop against which Warsh's first public statement as Fed Chair will play out.
What Wall Street Really Predicts for the Next Fed Rate Meeting
The 97% Verdict: A Rate Hold Is the Near-Certain Call at 3.50%–3.75%
The rate decision at the next Fed meeting is about as close to a certainty as financial markets ever produce.
According to CME FedWatch data as of June 13, 2026, there is a 97.1% probability that the Federal Reserve holds the federal funds rate unchanged at its current target range of 3.50%–3.75%.
The reasons are not difficult to find.
The Federal Reserve's own April 2026 meeting statement acknowledged that "inflation was elevated, partly because of higher global energy prices," signaling that policymakers see no room to ease.
According to Goldman Sachs Research, core PCE inflation was running at 3.3% year-over-year as of April 2026, well above the Fed's 2% target.
Headline inflation has been pushed even higher by energy prices.
The Iran war has driven crude oil prices sharply higher, a factor the Federal Reserve's own April 2026 meeting statement cited as a key driver of elevated inflation, adding persistent upward pressure on both headline and core readings.
The May 2026 employment report, released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, showed 172,000 jobs added — more than double the consensus estimate of approximately 85,000 — leaving the labor market resilient enough to remove any urgency around easing policy.
With inflation running hot and employment still solid, the economic case for a rate cut at the next Fed rate meeting simply does not exist right now.
Goldman Sachs Goes Blunt: No Rate Cuts Until 2027
What is more striking than June's near-certain hold is how dramatically the full-year rate outlook has shifted since January.
That is a significant shift from the firm's earlier forecasts, which had called for cuts in 2026.
Goldman Sachs Research explained that the combined impact of tariff-related inflation, higher oil prices from the Middle East conflict, and rising AI-driven demand is "likely to remain roughly steady this year, keeping year-over-year core PCE inflation at 3%+ throughout 2026."
JPMorgan Global Research no longer forecasts any rate cuts in 2026.
JPMorgan's position is that the federal funds rate stays at 3.50%–3.75% through year-end, with a 25 basis point hike now flagged as a possible 2027 outcome if inflation remains persistent.
Barclays moved in the same direction, removing all 2026 cuts from its forecast and shifting the first expected rate reduction to no earlier than early 2027.
Morgan Stanley and JPMorgan Chase strategists share the same broad view: rates on hold through December, with neither institution forecasting any rate adjustment before year-end.
The Fed's own March 2026 dot plot called for a single 25 basis point cut in 2026 and another in 2027.
The June dot plot, released alongside Wednesday's rate decision, will be the market's first look at whether those internal projections have been revised to match what Wall Street is now pricing.
Three Rate Scenarios at the Next Fed Meeting and Their Crypto Market Impact
Whether you trade Bitcoin, Ethereum, or equities, the Fed's decision functions as a macro signal that redirects capital flows across every asset class.
Understanding all three possible outcomes before the announcement, not just the most likely one, is what separates traders who position intelligently from those who react after the move has already happened.
Rate Hold: Why a 97% Base Case Can Still Hurt Crypto
A rate hold means the federal funds target stays at 3.50%–3.75%.
For crypto markets, the immediate reaction to a confirmed hold is typically muted, but muted is not the same as calm.
CoinGecko data from 2025 shows that Bitcoin declined after seven of the eight FOMC meetings that year, including months when the Fed actually cut rates.
The reason is that markets move on surprise, not confirmation.
When a hold is priced at 97%, there is almost no upside left from the rate number itself.
What does move markets in a hold scenario is the forward language.
If Warsh's June 17 press conference signals that a rate hike is under active consideration, risk assets including Bitcoin and Ethereum tend to sell off.
If he sounds neutral or acknowledges any future possibility of easing, crypto could find a modest bid in the sessions that follow.
The rate hold scenario, in short, shifts all meaningful market weight onto the dot plot and the press conference, not the rate number itself.
Rate Cut: The 3% Surprise That Could Ignite a Crypto Rally
A surprise rate cut at the next Fed meeting would be one of the most unexpected Federal Reserve actions in recent history.
With core PCE at 3.3% and energy prices still elevated, the economic case for an immediate cut simply does not exist under current conditions.
That said, a 3% probability is not zero.
Every experienced trader knows that low-probability outcomes happen regularly across enough FOMC cycles.
If the Fed were to cut, the market reaction would likely be sharp and immediate: a weaker US dollar, stronger equities, and a meaningful surge across crypto assets.
Rate cuts increase liquidity in the financial system and push investors toward higher-risk, higher-return positions, which is the category that Bitcoin and altcoins occupy.
It is not a scenario to size as a base case position.
It is, however, a scenario worth having a clear plan for before the announcement drops.
Rate Hike: The Tail Risk That Several Banks Are No Longer Ignoring
A rate hike at the next FOMC meeting is not expected by any major Wall Street institution in June.
CME FedWatch showed just a 0.6% implied probability of a hike as of early June 2026.
But the conditions that could eventually force a hike are not theoretical.
JPMorgan Global Research has flagged a 25 basis point hike as a realistic 2027 outcome.
Goldman Sachs Research's June article explicitly noted that "the most natural path for the FOMC is to delay further cuts," and the April 2026 meeting minutes recorded that a majority of committee members discussed whether "higher rates might become necessary."
A rate hike, if it came at a future FOMC meeting, would be the most significant negative macro catalyst for crypto markets in years.
When rates rise, the dollar strengthens, bond yields become more attractive relative to risk assets, and capital tends to flow out of speculative positions.
Bitcoin has historically sold off in the immediate aftermath of surprise rate hike announcements.
This is the scenario to hedge against, not the scenario to dismiss simply because the near-term probability is low.
How to Read CME FedWatch Before the Next FOMC Meeting Like a Pro
The CME FedWatch Tool is one of the most powerful free resources available to any trader who wants to understand what the market is actually pricing for an upcoming Fed meeting, in real time, before any announcement is made.
It is publicly accessible on the CME Group website at cmegroup.com and updates continuously throughout the trading day.
The tool works by analyzing the prices of 30-day Federal Funds futures contracts traded on CME Group's exchange.
These contracts are actively used by banks, hedge funds, and institutional investors to express their views on where the federal funds rate is heading.
If a contract trades at 96.50, the implied average rate for that period is 3.50%.
The FedWatch tool converts those futures prices into probability percentages for each possible rate outcome at every upcoming FOMC meeting on the calendar.
Here is how to use it step by step:
- Visit the CME FedWatch Tool page at cmegroup.com and look for the row of tabs across the top, each labeled with an upcoming FOMC meeting date.
- Select the meeting you want to analyze. The nearest upcoming date is the default.
- Read the bar chart that appears: each bar represents a possible federal funds target rate range, and the height of that bar shows the probability that the Fed sets rates at that level after the meeting.
- Switch to the Probabilities tab for a full matrix view covering all scheduled meetings at once, which is particularly useful for traders who want to see how expectations are shifting across the full year.
- Track how the probabilities move in the 24 to 48 hours after key economic releases, specifically CPI, PCE inflation data, monthly jobs reports, and any speeches from FOMC members.
The most important principle for traders using FedWatch is understanding what actually drives market movement.
A 97% priced-in hold that delivers a hold produces almost no reaction.
A 97% priced-in hold paired with a hawkish Warsh press conference can trigger sharp and rapid moves in Bitcoin and crypto within minutes, based on historical FOMC price action documented by CoinGecko.
The tool does not tell you what the Fed will do.
It tells you what the market already believes the Fed will do, and the gap between those expectations and what actually happens is where the real volatility lives before every next Fed meeting.
Four Things Traders Should Watch Beyond the Rate Decision
If you walk away from June 17 knowing only the rate number, you have missed the most important parts of the meeting.
Here is what experienced macro traders will actually be focused on.
- The dot plot. Released at 2:00 PM ET alongside the rate decision, the updated Summary of Economic Projections shows where each FOMC member currently projects rates heading at the end of this year, next year, and in the longer run. The March 2026 dot plot called for one 25 basis point cut in 2026. If the June update shifts that to zero cuts or, more significantly, to a possible hike, that change alone has the potential to move risk assets sharply regardless of what the rate number says.
- The policy statement language. Every post-meeting written statement is parsed word by word by professional traders. The specific change worth watching in June is whether the FOMC removes any language referencing an easing bias and replaces it with neutral or explicitly restrictive phrasing. That change in language, even without any rate movement, carries real market weight because it signals the direction of future decisions.
- Warsh's press conference at 2:30 PM ET, streamed live at federalreserve.gov. His first public statement as Fed Chair after a policy decision will set the tone for every subsequent meeting this year. Markets will listen closely for his views on inflation persistence, the threshold for any future rate action, and how he intends to handle the political pressure to cut rates that has come publicly from the White House.
- The meeting minutes, released approximately three weeks after June 17. Those minutes will show how close any dissent came to a formal vote, what language the committee debated but ultimately chose not to include in the statement, and what specific economic conditions policymakers believe would justify a rate change.
All four outputs carry more actionable information for traders than the rate number alone.
Pre-Meeting Checklist for Crypto Traders Ahead of Every Next Fed Meeting
Experienced macro traders do not make decisions during FOMC announcements.
They make decisions before them.
The preparation matters as much as the reaction, and the same framework applies whether you are heading into the July 28–29 next FOMC meeting, the September 15–16 meeting, or any other date on the 2026 calendar.
- Check CME FedWatch at least once a week in the month before each meeting, and more frequently in the final week before the decision. A probability that is moving rapidly in one direction tells you that incoming data or Fed speeches are repricing expectations, which is often more valuable than the static probability figure itself.
- Review the three key data points before every next Fed rate meeting. The most recent CPI print, PCE figure, and monthly jobs report are the primary inputs the Fed uses when shaping its decision and its statement language. Know where they stand before the announcement drops, and you will have a much clearer read on the likely tone of the press conference.
- Read or listen to public speeches by Fed members in the two to three weeks before the next FOMC meeting. FOMC members regularly signal their thinking between meetings, and those speeches frequently preview the language that ends up in the post-decision statement. This is especially important heading into the July meeting, where Warsh's early tone will begin to establish a communication pattern.
- Reduce leverage heading into the announcement window. The 30 to 60 minutes surrounding a rate decision are among the highest-volatility windows in the trading calendar. Holding oversized leveraged positions during that window is a risk management problem, not a trading edge.
- Set price alerts for Bitcoin, Ethereum, and any other open positions before the announcement, not after. Know your key support and resistance levels in advance, and have a clear, pre-written plan for each of the three rate scenarios: hold, cut, and hike.
- Know the exact timing. The rate decision and dot plot release at 2:00 PM ET on the final meeting day. The press conference starts at 2:30 PM ET. Meeting minutes follow approximately three weeks later. These times are consistent across every FOMC meeting, including the next ones in July and September.
Frequently Asked Questions
When is the next Fed meeting?
The current next Fed meeting is June 16–17, 2026, with the rate decision and dot plot released on June 17 at 2:00 PM ET, followed by the press conference at 2:30 PM ET.
When is the next FOMC meeting after June?
After June 16–17, the next FOMC meeting is July 28–29, 2026.
What are the remaining next Fed meeting dates for this year?
After July, the remaining 2026 FOMC meeting dates are September 15–16, October 27–28, and December 8–9.
When is the next Fed meeting on interest rates likely to produce a change?
According to Goldman Sachs Research, JPMorgan, Barclays, and Morgan Stanley, no rate change is expected through the end of 2026, with Goldman Sachs pushing its first expected cut to June 2027.
Will the Fed cut rates at the next Fed rate meeting?
Based on CME FedWatch data as of June 13, 2026, the probability of a rate cut at the June meeting is approximately 3%, with a 97.1% probability of a hold at 3.50%–3.75%.
What does the CME FedWatch tool show about the next FOMC meeting?
The CME FedWatch tool shows a real-time, market-implied probability of a rate hike, hold, or cut at each upcoming FOMC meeting, derived from 30-day Federal Funds futures prices traded on the CME Group exchange.
How does a rate hold at the next Fed meeting affect Bitcoin and crypto?
A rate hold is historically neutral to slightly negative for Bitcoin in the short term, with CoinGecko data showing BTC declined after seven of the eight FOMC meetings in 2025, even in months when rates were actually cut.
Conclusion
The next Fed meeting on June 17 will almost certainly leave the federal funds rate unchanged.
What it will not leave unchanged is the market's understanding of where monetary policy is heading for the rest of the year.
The dot plot update and Warsh's first press conference as Fed Chair carry more directional signal than the rate number itself.
Traders who use CME FedWatch to track shifting expectations and prepare across all three rate scenarios will be better positioned heading into the July, September, and December meetings that follow.
Track Bitcoin, Ethereum, and hundreds of other assets through every next FOMC meeting in real time on MEXC.
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