Week 3 of April 2026 Reporting Period: April 13–21, 2026 Data Cutoff: April 21, 2026 Key Narrative The fragile US–Iran ceasefire has added a new layer of volatility to global markets, driving sharpWeek 3 of April 2026 Reporting Period: April 13–21, 2026 Data Cutoff: April 21, 2026 Key Narrative The fragile US–Iran ceasefire has added a new layer of volatility to global markets, driving sharp
לִלמוֹד/Market Insights/Hot Topic Analysis/MEXC VIP Research Weekly | US–Iran Ceasefire Wavers as Bitcoin ETFs Pull In Nearly $1 Billion in a Single Week
MEXC VIP Research Weekly | US–Iran Ceasefire Wavers as Bitcoin ETFs Pull In Nearly $1 Billion in a Single Week
Week 3 of April 2026
Reporting Period: April 13–21, 2026
Data Cutoff: April 21, 2026
Key Narrative
The fragile US–Iran ceasefire has added a new layer of volatility to global markets, driving sharp divergence across asset classes. Over the past two weeks, financial markets have swung between two sharply contrasting narratives: first, a relief rally sparked by Iran's temporary reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, and later, a broad repricing triggered by a rapid reversal in geopolitical developments over the weekend.
On April 17, Iran announced that the Strait of Hormuz would be reopened, while a separate ceasefire agreement between Israel and Lebanon further supported risk sentiment. The US dollar index fell alongside oil prices, the S&P 500 posted a third consecutive weekly gain of more than 3%, and the Nasdaq Composite extended its winning streak to the longest seen since 1992. On the same day, silver surged above $82 per ounce and gold climbed to $4,887, both reaching their highest levels in four weeks.
That window of relief lasted less than 24 hours. Iran soon reversed course, announcing that the Strait of Hormuz would be closed again and accusing the United States of violating the ceasefire agreement. By Monday, April 20, crude oil Futures gapped higher at the open, with WTI and Brent rising 8.01% and 6.90%, respectively. US equity index Futures moved sharply lower, while Spot gold fell nearly 2% and silver dropped more than 2.5%. The two-week temporary ceasefire between the US and Iran expired on April 22, and whether the agreement is extended or conflict resumes is now the defining variable for global markets in the days ahead.
Crypto markets also showed a mixed but increasingly selective pattern, with Bitcoin remaining range-bound while altcoins staged uneven rebounds. As of April 21, BTC was trading at $75,748, up roughly 6.0% on the week; ETH was near $2,321, up around 5.2%; SOL traded in the $83–$90 range, up approximately 3.1%; and XRP broke above $1.40, gaining more than 6% over the same period. Total crypto market capitalization recovered to around $2.62 trillion, up 5.22% for the week. Meanwhile, Spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $996 million in net inflows last week—the strongest weekly inflow since mid-January and the third consecutive week of positive flows. Ethereum ETFs also posted $276 million in net inflows. Still, despite accelerating institutional demand, Bitcoin price action remained largely range-bound, suggesting that on-chain net outflow pressure has yet to fully fade.
1. Performance Across Global Asset Classes
1.1 Equities: US stocks extend historic rebound, Nasdaq rises for 13 straight sessions
Index | Weekly Change | Key Driver |
Nasdaq Composite | +6.8% | Rose for 13 consecutive trading days, the longest streak since 1992 |
S&P 500 | +4.5% | Advanced more than 3% for a third straight week and climbed above 7,100 for the first time |
Dow Jones Industrial Average | +3.2% | Fully recovered all losses triggered by the Middle East conflict |
Source: East Money, Zhitong Finance
For users looking to track US equities, MEXC offers tokenized US stock products in collaboration with Ondo Finance. QQQON tracks the Nasdaq-100, while SPYON tracks the S&P 500. Both are issued as ERC-20 tokens and are available for 24/7 trading on the MEXC Spot market. The tokenized stock lineup also includes major names such as TSLAON/USDT (Tesla), MSFTON/USDT (Microsoft), and NVDAON/USDT (NVIDIA). Each newly launched batch of tokenized US stocks also benefits from zero trading fees for the first 30 days.
1.2 Commodities: oil swings violently as gold and silver reverse after initial rally
Asset | Weekly Performance | Key Event |
WTI Crude Oil | Down more than 10% intraday, then rebounded 8%+ | Expectations of Strait of Hormuz reopening followed by renewed closure and ceasefire expiry |
Gold | Rose to $4,887, then pulled back nearly 2% | Safe-haven demand first eased, then returned as ceasefire uncertainty intensified |
Silver | Climbed to $82, then fell more than 2.5% | Tracked gold higher before reversing more sharply |
Source: The Paper, BullionVault
1.3 Bonds: Treasury yields ease as rate-cut expectations edge higher
The US 10-year Treasury yield fell below 4.23%, while fed funds pricing now implies a 48.5% probability of a rate cut by October and a 66% chance by December. A key catalyst was March core CPI, which came in at 2.6% year-over-year, below the 2.7% consensus forecast. MEXC's tokenized Treasury product, TLTON, which tracks the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF, offers users a way to express views on interest-rate expectations. International ETF tokens such as EEMON/USDT, EFAON/USDT, and INDAON/USDT are also available on the platform.
2. Core Developments in the Crypto Market
2.1 Institutional capital returns in force
According to SoSoValue, Spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded strong net inflows during the April 13–17 trading week (US Eastern Time, five trading days). BlackRock's IBIT led the category with $906 million in weekly net inflows, accounting for more than 91% of the total. Its cumulative historical net inflows have now reached $64.63 billion.
The trend continued into the new week. On Friday, April 18, Bitcoin ETFs recorded $663.9 million in single-day net inflows, the highest daily level since mid-January. Ethereum ETFs also posted $127.4 million in net inflows that day, extending their positive streak to seven consecutive sessions. In terms of fund distribution, IBIT led again with $284 million in inflows, followed by FBTC at $163.4 million and ARKB at $117.9 million. On Monday, April 20, Bitcoin ETFs posted another $238 million in net inflows, with IBIT once again leading the group at $256 million for the day. Measured across April 13–20, cumulative Bitcoin ETF net inflows reached approximately $1.234 billion, while total weekly inflows across crypto ETFs rose to $1.4 billion. Total assets under management across the segment climbed to $155 billion.
2.2 Price action: ETF demand has yet to fully translate into spot breakout
Asset | Weekly Change | Trading Range |
Bitcoin | +6% (as of April 20) | Largely range-bound between $74,000 and $76,000 |
Ethereum | +5% (as of April 20) | Broke above $2,300 |
Total Crypto Market Cap | +5.22% | $2.62 trillion |
Source: CoinGecko, MEXC News
Despite strong ETF inflows, Bitcoin has so far failed to break decisively above the key $76,000 resistance level. This suggests that structural selling pressure remains in place, with on-chain capital outflows and the short-term holder cost basis continuing to act as key constraints.
2.3 Stablecoin supply and issuance trends
According to CoinGlass, total stablecoin market capitalization rose to $313.1 billion from $310.3 billion a week earlier, an increase of approximately 0.90%. USDT remained the dominant stablecoin with a market cap of $187.26 billion, representing 59.81% of the total and rising 1.53% from $184.43 billion the previous week. USDC ranked second with a market cap of $78.2 billion, accounting for 24.97% of the total, down about 0.51% from $78.6 billion. DAI held steady at $5.36 billion, representing 1.71% of the stablecoin market.
Stablecoin issuance is often viewed as a leading indicator of expanding market purchasing power, as greater on-chain liquidity can create more favorable conditions for broader crypto upside. On MEXC, USDT and USDC are available under a 0-fee structure across more than 3,000 trading pairs, helping 3.44 million users save more than $1.1 billion in trading costs over the past year.
According to Whale Alert, USDC Treasury minted a total of 2.616 billion USDC this week, while Tether Treasury issued 1 billion USDT. Combined stablecoin issuance reached 3.616 billion this week, up 64.36% from 2.2 billion the week before.
3. Deep Dive Into Key Themes
Theme 1: The US–Iran Ceasefire — 48 Hours From Relief Rally to Sharp Reversal
On April 17, Iran announced that the Strait of Hormuz would be open to all shipping, while Israel and Hezbollah agreed to a ceasefire in Lebanon. The US dollar index erased all gains made since the outbreak of the conflict, Treasury yields fell to one-month lows, and precious metals rallied sharply. But the optimism faded quickly. Iran then announced that the Strait would be closed again, citing US violations of the ceasefire, including continued maritime blockades and the failure to lift sanctions. Iran's armed forces subsequently targeted several US naval vessels, while US forces seized Iranian cargo ships.
With the ceasefire expiring on April 22, the next move from both sides has become the market's central focus. Iranian state media reported that Iran had rejected a second round of talks with the United States, while Donald Trump declared that "the days of being nice are over." Over the coming week, navigability through the Strait of Hormuz will be a decisive factor for oil prices and, by extension, global inflation expectations and broader risk-asset pricing. MEXC currently offers OIL(WTI)USDT and OIL(BRENT)USDT perpetual Futures, supporting 24/7 trading, leverage of up to 200x, and zero-fee promotions, allowing users to capture two-way volatility driven by geopolitical developments.
Theme 2: Concentration in Bitcoin ETF Flows — The BlackRock IBIT Siphon Effect
Of the $996 million in weekly net inflows into Bitcoin ETFs, BlackRock's IBIT alone accounted for $906 million, or more than 91% of the total. IBIT's cumulative net inflows have now reached $64.63 billion, giving it roughly 60% of the total Spot Bitcoin ETF market.
Notably, this concentration persists even though IBIT's 0.25% management fee is higher than that of some competitors, such as Morgan Stanley's MSBT at 0.14%. The implication is clear: within the institutional allocation framework, brand credibility, distribution strength, and liquidity depth continue to outweigh fee minimization as the primary decision drivers.
Theme 3: Why ETF Inflows Are Not Fully Translating Into Price Strength
Bitcoin ETFs have seen multiple days of strong net inflows, yet BTC has remained locked in the $74,000–$76,000 range. Three factors appear to explain the disconnect:
- Persistent on-chain net outflows: 30-day Realized Cap change has remained negative for most of the period since mid-January
- Short-term holder cost basis as resistance: the $75,500–$76,000 zone remains crowded with leveraged liquidation clusters
- Macro liquidity has not yet turned decisively: the Federal Reserve has not resumed balance-sheet expansion, and global net liquidity remains subdued
If ETF demand remains resilient while on-chain outflow pressure continues to ease, Bitcoin may have a clearer path to breaking above the key $76,000 resistance level.
4. Market Buzzword Heat Map
Rank | Keyword | Main Driver / Region | On-Chain or Trading Mapping |
1 | Strait of Hormuz / US–Iran ceasefire expiry | Core variable for global risk-asset pricing; ceasefire expired on April 22 | WTI/USDT，XAUT/USDT |
2 | Record Bitcoin ETF inflows | Multiple days of strong inflows; April 18 saw $664M in a single day, the highest in three months | BTC/USDT |
3 | Nasdaq 13-day winning streak | Longest winning streak since 1992 | QQQON/USDT |
4 | Oil price roller-coaster | Crashed more than 10% before rebounding over 8% | WTI/USDT、OIL(BRENT)USDT |
5 | Repricing of gold and silver safe-haven logic | Gold neared $4,900 before a sharp pullback | |
6 | Surge in BlackRock IBIT concentration | Accounted for 91% of weekly Bitcoin ETF inflows; added another $256M on April 20 | BTC/USDT |
5. Key Events to Watch Next Week
Economic Calendar (April 23–30, SGT)
Date | Event / Indicator | Expected / Previous | Market Impact | Tokenized Exposure |
April 22 | Temporary US–Iran ceasefire expires | Negotiation outcome remains unclear | If talks fail, oil may rebound and risk assets may face renewed pressure | WTI/USDT |
April 23 | US initial jobless claims | Previous: 207K | A test of labor-market resilience | |
April 25 | US March durable goods orders | Expected: +1.0% MoM | Signals business investment confidence | SPYON/USDT |
April 28 | US April consumer confidence index | Previous: 92.9 | A gauge of how oil-price shocks are feeding into consumption | |
April 30 | US Q1 GDP, preliminary reading | Expected: +0.9% | Key growth signal with implications for rate-cut expectations | TLTON/USDT |
Source: Yicai, FRED, East Money
6. MEXC Platform Highlights
6.1 Market Position: Spot Market Share Has Nearly Doubled to 9% in Two Years
According to CoinGecko's latest 2026 Spot Exchange Report, MEXC's Spot market share increased from 5% at the beginning of 2024 to 9%, nearly doubling over the period. As of February 2026, MEXC recorded $95.9 billion in Spot trading volume, officially becoming the world's second-largest Spot exchange.
6.2 New Listings: Meme+ Zone Remains Active, While OPG Futures Debut Globally
Over the past week, MEXC continued to expand its asset library at an industry-leading pace:
- Three new first-listing tokens were added to the Meme+ Zone: UNC launched on April 15, Hakimi on April 18, and PUP on April 20. All three are trending meme tokens on Solana or BSC, and can be traded directly within the MEXC App without requiring an additional Web3 wallet.
- Global debut of OPG Futures: On April 21, MEXC announced the world's first listing of the OpenGradient (OPG)USDT perpetual Futures contract, supporting adjustable leverage from 1x to 20x, with both cross and isolated margin modes available. Futures grid bot support was launched simultaneously.
6.3 April Proof of Reserves: BTC Reserve Ratio Reaches 295%
On April 15, MEXC released its April 2026 Proof of Reserves report. The BTC reserve ratio increased further from 270% in March to 295%, while ETH, USDT, and USDC reserve ratios reached 116%, 111%, and 116%, respectively. All major assets remained significantly above the 1:1 industry benchmark. The platform currently holds 12,695.71 BTC—nearly three times the amount held by users. The Proof of Reserves report is independently audited by Hacken each month to ensure third-party verifiability and transparency.
Disclaimer: This report is for research and reference purposes only and does not constitute investment advice of any kind. Crypto asset prices are highly volatile, and geopolitical events as well as macroeconomic developments may have a material impact on market conditions. Investors should make independent judgments based on their own risk tolerance. Any platform products or trading pairs mentioned in this report are presented solely for objective informational purposes and should not be interpreted as a recommendation to buy or sell.
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