UAE faces talent squeeze as war dents hiring

• Security a concern for candidates
• Low tax will continue to appeal
• Job creation rose 1% in Q1

The UAE may face a tougher challenge attracting top global talent following the Iran conflict, as heightened security concerns weigh on its appeal to expatriate professionals, according to a recruitment executive.

Trefor Murphy, chief executive officer of UAE recruitment company Cooper Fitch, said the country’s low-tax environment will remain an important draw, but its longstanding reputation as a safe haven has been dented.

“The idea that Dubai sells itself to the top percentile of people, I don’t think that’s going to be the case for a period of time,” he told AGBI.

Hiring momentum had been building before the conflict escalated. Recruitment across the Gulf was on track to rise 4.5 percent in the first quarter of 2026, compared with a 1.5 percent increase a year earlier, he said.

That trajectory reversed after hostilities began on February 28. Missile and drone attacks across Gulf Cooperation Council countries triggered a sharp slowdown, with hiring falling 12 percent in March and leaving overall growth at about 1 percent for the quarter.

Job creation rose 1 percent in the UAE in the first quarter, supported by stronger business conditions in February, according to the latest Q1 Cooper Fitch Employment Index Report.

The level of new employment varied from sector to sector. Energy hiring was down 12 percent across the GCC, while banking declined 6 percent and mining fell 4 percent.

Murphy said the outlook for attracting senior international talent remains uncertain. He forecasts a potential 15 percent drop in recruitment in the second quarter.

“Those guys that are maybe getting paid whatever they want to come here for a bit of tax relief, they need to be sure that they’re coming to a place that’s safe and secure,” he said.

“If we have a permanent ceasefire in this cycle, I would say it could be a quarter or two before we can build that trust.”

• How uncertainty is reshaping recruitment across the Gulf
• UAE and Saudi hiring slows but the jobs have not gone
• Iran war risks hitting Gulf labour

A prolonged conflict, however, could take as much as a year to recover from, he said.

Nicki Wilson, executive director at Genie Recruitment, said a slowdown in inbound talent could help rebalance a market that has experienced an oversupply of candidates in recent years.

“A period of uncertainty could act as a reset,” she wrote in a column for AGBI, adding that tighter supply may ultimately push employers to offer more competitive compensation packages to attract talent back to the region.