Analysts warn that this Middle East crisis may be different, advising against immediately buying any stocks that have fallen.
PANews reported on March 1st that, according to Jinshi, the situation has become increasingly chaotic as Iran launched missiles at US military bases in Gulf cities, airlines suspended flights, and oil tankers carrying oil and other products stopped passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Rong Ren Goh, portfolio manager of the fixed income team at Eastland Investments, stated that tail risks in the Middle East have increased. The market will repric from a geopolitical shock to a regime risk shock, a protracted conflict, not just retaliatory actions, unless Iran expresses a willingness to negotiate. Analysts believe a greater risk lies in market complacency. The market has consistently assumed the impact of the conflict will be limited and has been reluctant to compare this conflict to the 1979 regime change in Iran. Barclays analysts stated that history powerfully demonstrates that one should not chase rallies during conflicts but rather "sell the facts." However, the worrying aspect is that investors have now become accustomed to the "sell the facts" mentality and may be underestimating the risk of the situation spiraling out of control. It is advised not to immediately buy on any dips. If the stock market correction is significant enough, such as a drop of more than 10% in the S&P 500, then a buying opportunity may arise. But not now.
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