Trump's gambit to prove 'naïve' economists wrong could devastate GOP: analysis

President Donald Trump appears to be trying to prove "naïve" economists wrong about how much a president can influence the price of goods, according to a new analysis.

Catherine Rampell, economics editor at The Bulwark, argued in a new article on Thursday that Trump's recent attacks in Iran are going to make his domestic issues much worse by raising the price of oil, something he has consistently bragged about lowering. Those strikes occurred at a time when Trump and the GOP are trying to tell voters that they will address the rising cost of living during the 2026 midterm election, Rampell noted.

"I don't think Trump is deliberately trying to raise prices. But if he were, it’s not clear how much he’d be doing differently right now," she argued. "This is why it’s so striking that Trump decided to start this war in an election year—and at a time when prices were already arguably the biggest issue dragging down his approval ratings, to boot."

She compared Trump's recent stunt in the Middle East and its expected economic impacts to former President Joe Biden's failed messaging strategy about the cost of living. Rampell noted that Biden and the Democrats lost a significant number of seats to the Republicans in the 2022 midterms and eventually lost the 2024 presidential election as well.

"At the time, naïve economic commentators such as yours truly had to explain that presidents can’t have much effect on prices, despite what voters assume. But between tariffs, mass deportations (and a resulting depletion in the agricultural workforce), politicizing the Federal Reserve, and bombing Iran, Trump seems intent on proving us wrong," Rampell wrote.

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