‘TRUMP Insider’ Trader Doubles Down with $93M Position: Shorts Crypto, Longs Oil

Key Insights

• The trader shorted 1,000 BTC at $70.34M, 10,000 ETH at roughly $20.57M, and went long 30,000 CL contracts.
• The aggregated spot volume for the top 500 crypto assets has been declining since late January. The 90-day Realized Profit/Loss Ratio has been trading below 1 since February 21.
• Oil options markets are still pricing in upside risk.

The markets are divided in terms of trader preferences, with most now leaning toward a bullish outlook for the oil market. These same participants are increasingly becoming bearish on crypto at a time when the globe is facing war tensions.

As participants continue to accuse a few traders of insider trading, one who was labeled as ‘TRUMP Insider’ was making moves once again. The most affected markets were Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH).

In the recent past, a couple has profited from timing the right market direction just before major moves. For instance, betting on the ZachXBT exposé and buying Official Trump (TRUMP) and Melania (MELANIA) memecoins just before their launch.

But it’s the “TRUMP Insider” move that has sparked discussions across social platforms about crypto and oil markets. Will the whale’s bet on a bearish crypto and bullish oil market pay off?

“Trump Insider” Shorts Crypto and Goes Long on Oil

According to Hyperbot data, this whale shorted 1,000 BTC worth $70 million at an average fee of $68,884, with a liquidation price of $100,768. The position was in a floating PnL of negative 1.46 million despite the high conviction.

Additionally, the whale sold 10,000 ETH, valued at around $21 million, at a price of $5,077 to be liquidated. Still, the position was down 5%, or $398K.

The total short position in crypto assets was $91 million. However, the whale predicted otherwise for the oil.

The ‘TRUMP Insider’, as labelled by on-chain lookers, went long with 30,000 CL worth $2.52 million. Also, this oil position was in a floating loss after buying at an average price of $84.

Spot Volume for Top 500 Crypto Assets and Bitcoin Realized Profit/Loss Ratio Slipping

The whale’s prediction seemed to align with the aggregated spot volume for the top 500 crypto assets since late January. This meant that traders were inactive for the entire crypto market.

However, Bitcoin’s volume had grown through February, in contrast to others’. The median spot volume for the 7-day rolling mean, which is the average trading volume over the last week, was around $5 billion, while BTC’s was $9 billion.

Meanwhile, Bitcoin has been trading in a loss since February 21st as the Realized Profit/Loss for the past three months was below 1. Historical data showed that this situation could persist for the next 6 months before returning to profitability.

These data sets showed that crypto was indeed trading in a bear market, which is why the whale placed a huge bet. Following the Israel-Iran war, a supply cut led to a rise in oil demand, which in turn drove prices up over the past two weeks.

Option Traders Still See Upside Risk for Oil Prices

Oil prices were rising, with options traders backing the current short-term rally. Despite the recent drop to around $84 from a peak of $118, this could still be true.

As per the Kobeissi Letter, the one-month call/put on WTI futures had climbed to a four-year peak of 31. The traders were more optimistic than during the 2022 energy crisis, when the risk indicator read 25. However, this depended on whether the war continued, worsening the supply dynamics.

In summary, the whale appeared closely aligned with the market’s performance, yet remained vulnerable to financial market uncertainties.

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