Bitcoin Tops $70K as Analyst Warns Rally Could Still Be a Fakeout

• Bitcoin jumped above $70K, but analyst Gambardello warned the rally could be a short-term fakeout.
• Traders are watching the $75,000-$77,000 zone, where a breakout could confirm stronger macro momentum.
• Exchange reserves fell to 2.74M BTC, the lowest since 2020, reducing available spot supply.

Bitcoin pushed above $70,000 during the last 24 hours, which sparked fresh debate about whether the market has finally entered a new bull phase. Analyst Dan Gambardello warned that the move alone does not confirm a full market reversal but remains optimistic.

According to the analyst, Bitcoin has produced several short rallies in recent months that quickly reversed, and the current move could follow the same pattern. 

He used a chart fractal comparing earlier price action, showing a setup similar to a previous consolidation period in the $90,000 range that later dropped toward $60,000.

The comparison indicates the latest rally could still be a temporary move inside a broader bottom structure. Bitcoin has formed a swing high on the daily chart but has not yet produced a clear higher high.

Gambardello said traders should watch the $75,000 to $77,000 range closely. A break above that zone would signal stronger momentum and possibly confirm a larger macro shift.

Oversold Signals Support Short-Term Bounce

Momentum indicators show a key difference between the current setup and the earlier fractal pattern that led to a drop. Before the earlier decline, Bitcoin’s relative strength index moved toward oversold territory.

Now the market is moving in the opposite direction, as Bitcoin recently entered extremely oversold conditions while fear sentiment reached record highs across the market. The current bounce came after that deep oversold phase.

Gambardello said that some bullish momentum may be building under the surface. However, the analyst added that volatility often dominates during market bottoms but “one simple news cycle change or PMI print & sentiment goes from ‘it’s over’ to ‘we’re so back’ faster than most are ready for.”

Exchange Supply Keeps Shrinking

According to CryptoQuant, total Bitcoin reserves on exchanges have dropped to about 2.74M BTC, the lowest level recorded since 2020. The decline means fewer coins remain available for immediate trading on spot markets.

Investors often move assets to private wallets or cold storage when they intend to hold for longer periods. Lower exchange balances usually reduce short-term selling pressure. 

Meanwhile, Bitcoin reserves on the exchange surged earlier and reached their highest level since November 2024. That increase signaled temporary inflows of coins to the trading platform. However, the trend quickly reversed.

The latest data shows Binance reserves have fallen to roughly 640,406 BTC, the lowest level since January. The drop suggests that investors again moved coins away from the exchange after the earlier accumulation phase.

Altcoin Signals Remain Key for Market Confirmation

Gambardello said Bitcoin alone does not determine whether a full bull cycle has started. He tracks several major altcoins for confirmation signals.

For Ethereum, the critical area sits between its 20‑month and 50‑month moving averages, currently around $2,800 and $2,500. Sustained monthly closes above that range would resemble the early stages of the 2020 bull market.

If a full cycle expansion follows, the analyst expects Ethereum to eventually test the $7,000 range before potentially extending toward $10,000 or higher during a late‑stage rally.

Related: Hollywood Actor Terrence Howard Predicts That “Bitcoin is Going to Die”