Experts: Rising oil prices may dampen expectations of a decline in US inflation, posing a challenge to the Federal Reserve.
PANews reported on March 29th that, according to Jinshi, with the Iraq War nearing its one-month mark, shipping in the Strait of Hormuz remains disrupted, the global energy supply system is being thrown into disarray, and international oil prices are soaring. Wan Zhe, an economics expert and professor at Beijing Normal University, stated that firstly, global inflation is facing a full-blown rebound, and the rise in oil prices will be transmitted along the entire industrial chain. Costs across all industries, including energy, food, transportation, and chemicals, will surge, with economies highly dependent on energy imports, such as Europe, Japan, and India, facing even greater pressure. The United States is a net energy exporter, but inflationary stickiness may become completely entrenched, putting the Federal Reserve's monetary policy in a dilemma. Currently, the average price of gasoline in the United States has surged by more than 30% in three weeks, directly reversing the previous downward trend in inflation and completely altering market expectations for interest rate cuts. A prolonged high-interest-rate environment will directly suppress the US real estate market, corporate financing, and stock market valuations. Especially this year is a US midterm election year, and gasoline prices are one of the most sensitive livelihood indicators for American voters. Global economic growth will face a slowdown, with high oil prices directly eroding residents' disposable income, squeezing non-energy consumption, and also raising production costs for businesses.
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