Taiwan: Trade boom drives bold growth upgrade – ING

ING’s Chief Economist for Greater China, Lynn Song, highlights that Taiwan’s March trade data far exceeded expectations, with exports and imports surging and the trade surplus more than doubling year-on-year in the first quarter of 2026. The report stresses Taiwan’s growing dependence on tech-related exports, rising export prices, and significant upside surprises that are prompting an upgrade to 2026 GDP growth forecasts despite energy-related risks.

Tech-led trade boom reshapes growth outlook

“Despite the upside surprise in import growth, the boom in exports far outweighed the faster imports when we look at the trade balance. Taiwan’s trade balance rose to a five-month high of USD 21.3bn, while its 1Q26 trade surplus rose to USD 53.0bn, which was up 124.2% YoY. This outperformance will likely translate to another quarter of double-digit GDP growth when Taiwan reports its 1Q26 GDP growth at the end of April.”

“The continued outperformance has led to Taiwan’s trade and economy becoming increasingly concentrated and dependent on this segment; the subcategory represented 84.0% of total exports in 1Q26, up from 80.4% in 2025 and 73.2% in 2024.”

“However, it’s impossible to ignore the trade surplus once again, more than doubling in the first quarter of 2026, especially when considering the last time this happened in 4Q25, net exports added a whopping 11.9ppt to GDP growth. Market forecasts continue to undershoot actual growth even after waves of upgrades. We’re taking another shot here, upgrading our 1Q26 GDP forecast to 11.5% YoY from 10.2%, and our full-year GDP forecast to 8.2% YoY from 6.7%.”

“While we think that Taiwan’s economic growth will be able to absorb higher energy prices as long as the global tech boom and AI-related investments continue, energy shortages potentially impacting production would be a whole different story. As such, our outlook is contingent on some sort of resolution being reached in Iran in the coming weeks or months, or at least limited supply disruption leading to higher prices but not actual shortages.”

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)