ASML (ASML) Stock Climbs on Strong Q1 Results and Upgraded 2026 Forecast

Key Highlights

• First-quarter net earnings reached €2.76 billion with revenues of €8.77 billion, surpassing Wall Street projections
• Full-year 2026 revenue forecast increased to €36–€40 billion from previous €34–€39 billion estimate
• Chief executive indicates semiconductor demand exceeds current manufacturing capacity as clients fast-track expansion initiatives
• Company targets delivery of 60 low-NA EUV systems in 2026, representing a 25% year-over-year increase
• Chinese market dependency continues to pose regulatory uncertainty amid potential US export restrictions

The Netherlands-based lithography equipment manufacturer delivered impressive first-quarter performance and enhanced its annual projections, citing accelerating appetite for semiconductor manufacturing tools fueled by artificial intelligence infrastructure investments.

First-quarter earnings totaled €2.76 billion against revenues of €8.77 billion. Market analysts surveyed by FactSet had anticipated profits of €2.55 billion on €8.63 billion in sales.

The semiconductor equipment supplier has revised its 2026 sales projection upward to a range of €36 billion to €40 billion. This represents an upgrade from the company’s prior forecast of €34 billion to €39 billion, marking approximately 4% growth at the range’s midpoint.

ASML Holding N.V., ASML

ASML maintains dominant market control over extreme ultraviolet lithography equipment — sophisticated machinery essential for fabricating cutting-edge semiconductor chips. Individual systems command prices reaching $400 million.

Increased Equipment Shipments Planned

Chief Financial Officer Roger Dassen disclosed expectations to deliver 60 units of the company’s popular low-NA EUV systems throughout this year. This figure represents a 25% uptick compared to 2025 shipment volumes. Dassen further noted manufacturing capability will expand to accommodate 80 unit deliveries in 2027.

TSMC recently unveiled substantial production capacity investments, bolstering optimism surrounding ASML’s growth trajectory. Memory chip manufacturers Samsung and SK Hynix are similarly deploying significant capital toward manufacturing expansion.

ASML’s equity valuation has appreciated approximately 40% year-to-date. American depositary receipts registered a 0.7% gain during Tuesday’s extended trading session.

The organization announced it will discontinue publishing quarterly booking figures, eliminating a metric investors historically utilized to gauge business momentum.

Chinese Market Dependency Remains Under Scrutiny

A significant consideration involves ASML’s commercial exposure to China. Bipartisan US legislators recently unveiled the MATCH Act, proposed legislation seeking to impose stricter controls on semiconductor equipment exports to Chinese entities.

ASML projects China will constitute 20% of 2026 revenues. Notably, the company issued comparable predictions for 2025 but ultimately generated roughly one-third of annual sales from Chinese customers.

Jefferies equity analyst Janardan Menon observed that the upgraded guidance seemingly stems partially from immersion lithography equipment, a category where management previously anticipated declines due to reduced Chinese purchases. Menon suggested this development “may partially indicate MATCH Act-driven preemptive procurement” as Chinese buyers attempt to secure inventory before potential regulatory implementation.

ASML shares exhibited modest pre-market weakness Wednesday morning despite exceeding quarterly earnings benchmarks.

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