Iran ceasefire is ‘on life support’ as hopes for a deal fade, says Trump

WASHINGTON/DUBAI – US President Donald Trump said on Monday, May 11, that a ceasefire with Iran was “on life support” after Tehran’s response to a US proposal to end the war made clear the two sides were still far apart on a number of issues.

Iran has called for an end to the war on all fronts, including Lebanon, where US ally Israel is fighting Iran-backed Hezbollah militants. Tehran also demanded compensation for war damage, an end to the US naval blockade, a guarantee of no further attacks, and resumption of Iranian oil sales.

Tehran also emphasized its sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz, where it has shut down shipping traffic that normally carries one-fifth of the world’s oil and gas supply.

Trump said Iran’s response threatened the status of a ceasefire that has been in place since April 7.

“I would call it the weakest right now, after reading that piece of garbage they sent us. I didn’t even finish reading it,” he said.

The US had proposed an end to fighting before starting talks on more contentious issues, including Iran’s nuclear program.

Tehran defended its stance on Monday.

“Our demand is legitimate,” Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmaeil Baghaei said.

Iran’s parliament speaker Mohammad Baqer ‌Qalibaf said that Iran’s armed forces are ready to respond decisively to any “act of aggression.”

Trump has repeatedly threatened to end the ceasefire between the two countries since it took effect on April 7. But he has also sought to downplay tensions following a series of naval clashes last week.

Brent crude oil futures traded 2.7% higher at around $104 a barrel, as the deadlock left the Strait of Hormuz largely closed. Before the war began on February 28, the narrow waterway carried one-fifth of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas, and has since become a central pressure point in the conflict.

Disruption caused by the near-closure of the strait has forced oil producers to cut exports, and OPEC oil output dropped further in April to the lowest in more than two decades, a Reuters survey showed on Monday.

Trickle of shipping through Hormuz

Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz is at a trickle compared with before the war. Shipping data on Kpler and LSEG showed that three tankers laden with crude exited the waterway last week, with trackers switched off to avoid an Iranian attack.

A second Qatari LNG tanker was attempting to transit the strait, the data showed, days after the first such cargo crossed under an arrangement involving Iran and Pakistan.

Sporadic flare-ups around the strait in recent days have tested a ceasefire that has paused all-out warfare since it took effect in early April.

In the US, surveys show the war is unpopular with voters facing sharply higher gasoline prices less than six months before nationwide elections that will determine whether Trump’s Republican Party retains control of Congress.

Two out of three Americans think Trump has not clearly explained why the country has gone to war with Iran, according to a Reuters/Ipsos poll completed on Monday.

More than two months into a conflict that began February 28 with a US-Israeli bombing campaign, some 66% of poll respondents – including one in three Republicans and almost all Democrats – said Trump has not “clearly explained the goals of US military involvement in Iran.”

Washington has also struggled to build international support, with NATO allies refusing to send ships to reopen the waterway without a full peace deal and an internationally mandated mission.

Hakan Fidan, the foreign minister of Turkey, which has been liaising closely with the US, Iran and mediator Pakistan since the start of the war, will hold talks in Qatar on Tuesday on the conflict and on ensuring navigational safety in the strait, a Turkish diplomatic source said.

Trump set to discuss Iran in Beijing

The next diplomatic or military steps remain unclear. Trump is expected to arrive in Beijing on Wednesday, May 13, where Iran is set to be among the topics discussed with Chinese President Xi Jinping.

Trump has been leaning on China to use its influence to push Tehran toward a deal with Washington.

Iran’s Foreign Ministry spokesperson Baghaei suggested China could instead use the visit to push back against US objectives in the Gulf. “Our Chinese friends know very well how to use these opportunities to warn about the consequences of the US’ illegal and bullying actions on regional peace and security,” he said.

Addressing whether combat operations against Iran were over, Trump said in remarks aired on Sunday: “They are defeated, but that doesn’t mean they’re done.”

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said the war was not over because there was “more work to be done” to remove enriched uranium from Iran, dismantle enrichment facilities and address its proxy forces and ballistic missile capabilities.

Netanyahu told CBS News’ “60 Minutes” that the preferred route was diplomacy, but he did not rule out the use of force.

Clashes have also continued in southern Lebanon between Israel and Hezbollah, despite a US-brokered ceasefire announced on April 16. – Rappler.com