Marcos goes to Japan amid historic strategic shift

The upcoming state visit of President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. to Japan on May 26 to 29 is historic in many ways. It is the first state visit of a Philippine president in 11 years, and it marks a milestone: the 70^th year of diplomatic relations between our countries.

Marcos’s visit shows the continuity of strong relations between the two countries. “Our bilateral ties are solid and go beyond the individual initiative of single politicians, regardless of [Prime Minister Sanae] Takaichi or Marcos,” Yusuke Takagi, a Southeast Asia expert at the National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies in Tokyo, told me in an e-mail interview. “It will become another good symbol to reconfirm good bilateral ties.”

Takagi traces our countries’ solid ties to the 1950s when people-to-people exchange started, with students studying in Japan. Later, business-to-business relationships were bolstered after the Japan-Philippines Treaty of Amity and Commerce went into force in 1974.  

Shaking off pacifist moorings

Today, there is a wider context. Marcos will be in Tokyo at a time when a tectonic shift is taking place: it is shaking off its pacifist moorings, having just sent its combat troops to the Philippines to participate in the Balikatan military exercises, a first since the Japanese came as invaders in World War II. 

Defense Minister Shinjiro Koizumi visited Manila last week to observe the Balikatan, where 1,400 members of the Japanese Ground Self Defense Forces took part. 

Equally consequential is the lifting of Japan’s old arms-export rules, the first time since World War II. It allows the export of lethal defense equipment such as missiles and destroyers. Koizumi said that Tokyo and Manila are working on an early transfer of used destroyers and aircraft to the Philippine military. 

This seismic shift is a boost to defense companies like Mitsubishi Heavy Industries and IHI, which manufacture mainly for domestic use. They are now investing to expand production for overseas markets like Australia, Philippines, New Zealand, and Indonesia. 

Defense Secretary Gilberto Teodoro welcomed this move saying it “will allow the Philippines to access defense articles of the highest quality and supportability, which will not only enable us to strengthen domestic resilience but also to contribute to regional stability through deterrence in a meaningful way… Our defense partnership with [the] Japanese has entered a new era of working together.” 

In the past, Japan limited its export of defense equipment for noncombat uses: rescue, transport, warning, surveillance, and minesweeping.

This new zeitgeist is part of Japan’s strategic shift under Sanae Takaichi, the country’s first female prime minister. She won by a landslide in February with her party, the Liberal Democratic Party, gaining a supermajority in the powerful lower house.

Her approval ratings remain high because of her “clear messaging on constitutional reform, stronger defense, and economic security,” Naoya Yoshino, news editor of Nikkei Asia, said in a webinar. She is also seen as a successor to the late prime minister Shinzo Abe, who pioneered the concept of a free and open Indo-Pacific. 

The fact that she is Japan’s first female prime minister is a plus factor.  

Abe’s legacy

Japan and the Philippines started to build deeper defense relations during the time of Abe, when he transformed security ties from humanitarian cooperation to a strategic partnership. The geopolitical landscape in the region was changing as China was asserting itself in the South China Sea and Taiwan Strait, raising tensions.

It was in 2011 when Manila and Tokyo forged a strategic partnership, which included building the maritime capacity of the Philippine Coast Guard. Japan provided loans for more than a dozen patrol vessels.

A few years later, Japan lifted the ban on the export of used defense equipment, allowing it to transfer second-hand hardware and spare parts for helicopters to the Philippine military. Momentum grew in 2022, when Japan exported brand new air surveillance radar systems to the Philippine Air Force.

Then talks began for a visiting-forces-type of agreement in 2023 which was eventually called the Reciprocal Access Agreement or RAA and was signed in 2024. A milestone in bilateral relations, it allowed troops of both countries to engage in military exercises here and in Japan.

The signing of ACSA or the Acquisition and Cross Servicing Agreement followed in January 2026. It provided the framework for the reciprocal provision of supplies and services—such as food, fuel, and medical care—between the Philippine military and the Japan Self-Defense Forces.

Last year, the Japanese press reported that Japan plans to export to the Philippines a command and control system that will be used for air defense operations and sharing of information, aimed at “strengthening their capabilities for dealing with China in the East and South China Seas.” If it pushes through, it will be the first time for Japan to export a command and control system for military purposes.

The changing security environment is pushing Japan and the Philippines closer to each other. Marcos and Takaichi are the leaders presiding over this new era.  

Let me know what you think. You can email me at [email protected].

Till next newsletter!

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