Arthur Hayes: Bitcoin Poised For $126K Surge Once $90K Resistance Is Broken, Fuelled By AI Arms Race And Global Liquidity Surge

BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes has published a new essay, “The Butterfly Touch,” arguing that a powerful convergence of AI spending, geopolitical fragmentation, and expanding monetary policy is creating the conditions for a prolonged liquidity cycle that could drive Bitcoin and crypto markets higher.

At the center of his thesis is the belief that the global race to dominate AI infrastructure has become a national security priority for both the United States and China, effectively insulating AI-related spending from traditional monetary constraints. 

According to the essay, the sheer scale of capital required for data centers, semiconductor supply chains, model training, and electricity generation will force both governments and banking systems to continue expanding credit creation in US dollars and Chinese yuan regardless of inflationary pressure.

Arthur Hayes argues that this AI-driven credit expansion is occurring alongside a broader geopolitical realignment. He points to the US military engagement with Iran, which began in late February, as a catalyst exposing vulnerabilities in the global reserve system. 

For decades, many nations accumulated US treasury assets under the assumption that dollar reserves guaranteed stability and access to global trade. However, commodity disruptions tied to geopolitical conflict have intensified concerns among energy-importing countries about whether financial reserves alone can secure access to food, fuel, and industrial inputs during crises.

As a result, the expert believes governments across Europe, Asia, and Africa are beginning to redirect capital away from purely financial reserves and toward domestic infrastructure, defense capacity, and strategic commodity stockpiles. He describes this shift as a long-duration structural trend that will require sustained fiscal spending and ongoing monetary accommodation.

In order to counterbalance weakening foreign demand for dollar-denominated assets, Arthur Hayes expects US policymakers to rely on two primary mechanisms: expanded dollar swap lines for allied nations and further relaxation of banking capital requirements to encourage institutions to hold more treasuries and risk assets. Both policies, he argues, ultimately increase systemic liquidity and expand the monetary base.

The cumulative effect of these forces — AI-related credit creation, war-driven commodity inflation, and structurally looser financial conditions — is, in his view, highly bullish for scarce digital assets, particularly Bitcoin. The analyst argues that Bitcoin remains one of the most sensitive assets to fiat liquidity expansion and notes that the cryptocurrency has already outperformed gold and major technology indices since the outbreak of hostilities involving Iran earlier this year.

Arthur Hayes Sees Bitcoin Breaking $126K As AI Liquidity Boom Fuels Crypto Markets

Arthur Hayes believes Bitcoin has already established a cyclical bottom near $60,000 and sees a retest and eventual breakout above $126,000 as increasingly inevitable. According to his framework, momentum could accelerate sharply once Bitcoin decisively clears the $90,000 level.

Looking further ahead, he identifies two developments that could eventually challenge the current cycle. The first would be a landmark AI-sector IPO or merger large enough to trigger broader scrutiny over whether AI returns justify the extraordinary level of capital expenditure now underway. The second would emerge during the 2028 US presidential election cycle, when inflation and AI-driven labor displacement are likely to become politically contentious issues that could prompt tighter regulation or a shift in policy direction.

Until then, however, he maintains that the dominant trend remains continued expansion of dollar and yuan liquidity, accelerating AI capital expenditure, and favorable monetary conditions for risk assets.

Alongside the macro thesis, Arthur Hayes also disclosed positioning within his family office, Maelstrom, stating that the firm is currently heavily allocated to HYPE and ZEC, while identifying NEAR as the next major area of deployment focus.

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