Here’s Why The Bitcoin Price Has Risen 37% Since April And What Could Threaten The Rally

The massive surge in the Bitcoin price since April 2026 is still viewed as part of a broader bear market phase, according to on-chain analytics platform CryptoQuant. While some market experts believe the rebound could signal a new bull run, CryptoQuant’s unrealized profit data show the numbers are nowhere near bull-market levels. Notably, as BTC’s value increases, rising selling pressure could threaten the cryptocurrency’s ongoing rally, potentially triggering a price breakdown.  

Profit-Taking Hits Three-Month Highs After Bitcoin Price Surge

Bitcoin’s rally to $82,000 on May 6 came as a shock to the broader digital asset market, as that was the first time the cryptocurrency had reached that level since late January 2026. Initially, BTC broke above $81,000 on May 5 and pushed toward $82,000 the next day, only to be rejected. Now, after the surge, Julio Monero, the Head of Research at CryptoQuant, believes that investors could be gearing up to take profit, potentially adding more volatility to the cryptocurrency’s price. 

Monero said in an analysis report that Bitcoin holders realized daily profits of up to 14,600 BTC on May 4, marking the highest single-day figure since December 10, 2025. Net profits on a 30-day basis also surged, with holders realizing over 20,000 BTC. These numbers reinforce the analyst’s belief that selling pressure may be imminent.

The CryptoQuant analyst also noted that Bitcoin has skyrocketed over 20% since the beginning of April, now trading around $80,000 after its latest rally. To some, this might look like a renewed and sustainable bull run. However, he described the move as a “bear market rally,” suggesting that Bitcoin remains within a broader bear trend despite recent price gains. 

Monero also revealed that BTC’s price surges since April have been fueled by easing macroeconomic pressures and an earlier undervaluation, which kept its price depressed all through January to March 2026. He added that a sharp increase in demand for perpetual futures has helped prop up BTC’s price, suggesting that much of the buying is probably driven by leveraged traders rather than fresh spot accumulation.

All of these developments appear to be pushing the cryptocurrency’s price upward despite social and whale sentiment still firmly in the Fear territory. At the same time, price score and volatility indicators are flashing Greed, signaling that BTC’s rally is likely being driven by price action alone, rather than any meaningful or real shift in how investors actually feel about the market. 

Analyst Flags Upcoming Downside Risk For BTC

In his report, Monero added that Bitcoin’s 30-day realized profit of over 20,000 BTC is still a long way from the 130,000 to 200,000 BTC range typically seen in bull markets. He believes the gap alone suggests the market could still have more pain ahead.

Beyond the broader bear market and potential selling pressure, Monero also highlights specific warning signs that raise Bitcoin’s downside risk. He noted that while perpetual futures continue to climb, spot demand and exchange inflows remain weaker than expected. He described this setup as one that is “consistent with a rally that carries meaningful correction risk but has not yet reached a confirmed distributional peak.”