GOP lawmakers giving Trump ‘the stiff arm’ as president’s leverage implodes: analysis

An increasing number of Republican lawmakers are openly rebuking President Donald Trump’s demands after a key source of his leverage has all but disappeared, a dynamic that led Punchbowl News to question whether Trump was “losing sway on Capitol Hill” in its Wednesday morning newsletter.

That leverage was the threat that GOP lawmakers could face a Trump-backed primary challenger, but with primary elections wrapping up around the country, that threat has mostly been neutralized until at least 2028. As such, Republicans appear to have found a newfound courage to more frequently give Trump “the stiff arm,” Punchbowl News reported.

“The ‘do-whatever-Trump-wants’ incentive structure for many House and Senate Republicans has flipped,” Punchbowl News’ report reads.

“Trump’s approval rating is in the 30s. Most Republicans are through their party primaries, meaning there’s no longer a risk of a Trump-backed primary challenger. As the political environment worsens for the GOP, many rank-and-file Republicans are finding it necessary to split with the president.”

Examples include Republicans' meek response to the $1 billion funding request related to Trump’s White House ballroom project, which one GOP senator told Punchbowl News he was not convinced by the Trump administration’s case for the request. House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) issued Trump an “explicit rebuke” after defying the president’s demand that his chamber advance a bill related to housing.

South Carolina state Republicans outright rejected the push from the White House to redraw its congressional district map, and Sen. Dan Sullivan (R-AK), Punchbowl News reported, “has been voting like he’s vulnerable,” siding with Democratic lawmakers on several votes, and in spite of Trump having won Alaska in the 2024 election by 13 points.

Trump successfully used his leverage last week in Indiana, ousting several state GOP lawmakers who rebuked him last year in his push for the state to redraw its congressional district map. With the primary season largely over, however, that leverage has all but vanished for the immediate future, giving rise to a growing number of Republicans outright “ignoring his policy demands,” Punchbowl News reported.