Ondas (ONDS) Stock: Q1 Earnings Preview Shows $457M Defense Backlog in Focus

Key Takeaways

• Ondas releases Q1 2025 results Thursday morning, with Wall Street forecasting approximately $38–39M in revenue and an EPS loss of $0.05
• The defense-focused company’s pro forma backlog reached $457M, significantly enhanced by the Mistral acquisition which contributed roughly $264M of the $175M merger value
• The entire analyst community covering ONDS—7 to 8 firms—maintains Strong Buy ratings, with average price targets near $20.13–$20.14, suggesting potential gains of 118–124% from the current $9.04 level
• The options market anticipates a 15.25% price swing following the earnings announcement, signaling considerable investor uncertainty
• The company projects 2026 revenue reaching minimum $375M, though full profitability across operations isn’t anticipated before Q1 2028

Ondas Holdings faces a pivotal moment Thursday as it prepares to unveil its quarterly financial performance. Currently trading near $9.04 with a six-month gain exceeding 56%, the company’s trajectory has captured significant market attention.

Ondas Holdings Inc., ONDS

Wall Street’s consensus points to Q1 revenue in the $38–39 million range alongside a per-share deficit of $0.05—representing substantial progress compared to last year’s comparable quarter, which delivered only $4.2 million in sales with a $0.15 per-share shortfall.

This dramatic year-over-year transformation demands attention. The growth story centers largely on strategic acquisitions and an aggressively expanding defense contract portfolio.

The headline figure for this period is the order book. Ondas‘ combined backlog—incorporating the recently integrated Mistral and World View operations—reached approximately $457 million at quarter-end March 31. The Mistral transaction, valued at $175 million, contributed roughly $264 million to the cumulative backlog.

Leadership has established a 2026 revenue floor of $375 million. Needham’s Austin Bohlig believes the company might approach $500 million with solid operational performance.

Contracted Work Provides Revenue Visibility

The company’s contract pipeline contains tangible commitments. Ondas maintains involvement in approximately $80 million worth of active demining initiatives related to Israel’s Eastern Border Security Barrier project.

Additionally, its INDO Earth Moving division secured an initial contract worth roughly $68 million as part of a broader $140 million multi-year military engineering program. These extended-duration agreements provide meaningful forward revenue transparency.

The organization also established the ONBERG Autonomous Systems partnership in Germany, positioning for expansion into European defense drone markets.

Last quarter delivered record Q4 revenue of $30.1 million, substantially exceeding the $15.9 million analyst consensus. However, the bottom line disappointed significantly with a $0.34 per-share loss.

Wall Street Forecasts and Derivatives Positioning

Every analyst following Ondas maintains a Strong Buy stance. Price objectives span from $20 to $25, clustering around $20.14—more than doubling the present share price.

Maxim’s Matthew Galinko elevated his target to $22 from $16, highlighting that Ondas possesses sufficient capital to sustain operations until reaching breakeven, which leadership anticipates in 2028.

The derivatives market tells a more cautious story. Option pricing implies a 15.25% move in either direction following the earnings release—an unusually wide expected range reflecting genuine uncertainty about revenue trajectory sustainability.

Profitability remains a multi-year objective. Management anticipates product-level profitability by Q3 2026, but organization-wide positive earnings won’t arrive until Q1 2028.

Thursday’s financial disclosure represents the initial meaningful examination of whether the substantial backlog translates into recognized revenue at projected rates.

Ondas releases results before Thursday’s market opening on May 14, 2026.

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