Bitcoin Could Drop to $48K Before Hitting $1 Million, Says ‘Godfather of Crypto’

TLDR

• Michael Terpin, known as the “Godfather of Crypto,” is currently shorting Bitcoin short-term while remaining bullish long-term
• He gives 2-to-1 odds Bitcoin falls lower, with a price target of $48,000–$60,000 by October 2026
• Terpin sees Strategy’s Bitcoin purchases and ETF inflows as a price floor, preventing a drop below $40,000
• He predicts a new Bitcoin bull cycle heading into the 2028 US presidential election
• Terpin targets $1 million Bitcoin by 2033, a view shared by Cathie Wood, Michael Saylor, and others

Michael Terpin, the early Bitcoin advocate dubbed “the Godfather of Crypto” by CNBC, says Bitcoin is likely heading lower before any major rally. He shared his views in a recent episode of the David Lin podcast.

Terpin is the founder and CEO of Transform Ventures, a blockchain investment and advisory firm. He also wrote the book “Bitcoin Supercycle: How the Crypto Calendar Can Make You Rich.”

Despite being a long-term Bitcoin bull, Terpin says he is currently shorting Bitcoin. He puts 2-to-1 odds on the price going lower in the near term.

His downside target is somewhere between $48,000 and $60,000, with October 2026 flagged as a likely low point. He believes Bitcoin could fall to its 200-week moving average, which sits around $60,000, but may overshoot to the low $50,000s or even the high $40,000s.

He does not expect Bitcoin to fall below $40,000. Terpin points to institutional buying from Strategy and continued inflows into Bitcoin ETFs as a floor for the price.

Why Terpin Thinks Bitcoin Falls Before It Rises

Terpin connects Bitcoin’s price cycles to the US election calendar. He argues that Satoshi Nakamoto deliberately set Bitcoin halvings every four years to align with US midterm elections.

He also flagged systematic selling by firms like Jane Street as a short-term headwind. This involves a trading pattern sometimes called the “10 a.m. dump,” which is designed to trigger liquidations and profit from short positions.

Quantum computing concerns also weighed on Bitcoin between October 2025 and February 2026, according to Terpin, though he downplayed the risk, noting that cracking every Bitcoin wallet would not be possible due to the decentralized nature of the network.

The Path to $1 Million Bitcoin

Terpin’s long-term case for Bitcoin rests on familiar arguments: declining trust in fiat currencies, rising government debt, and continued money printing.

He expects Bitcoin to enter a new bull market as the 2028 presidential election approaches, mirroring previous four-year cycles.

His final target is $1 million per Bitcoin by 2033. He is not alone in that view. VanEck’s Head of Digital Assets Research Matthew Sigel recently said he expects Bitcoin to reach $1 million within roughly half a decade.

Binance founder Changpeng Zhao, ARK Invest CEO Cathie Wood, and Strategy founder Michael Saylor have all stated similar long-term price targets.

Terpin also said he sees the next decade as belonging to artificial intelligence, and pointed to the emerging market for AI tokens as a space to watch alongside Bitcoin.

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