Uptober or Dumptober. How Will Bitcoin Kick Off the Fourth Quarter?

Bitcoin is trading at $114,271 at the time of writing. Its recent price signifies recovery from the decline it had earlier on Tuesday.

The apex coin dropped to $112,700 before rebounding but is yet to register any significant increase as the day draws to a close.

BTC is trading notably higher than it did last week. It had its biggest decline on Thursday, losing almost 4% and dropping to a low of $108,652. It recent price shows it’s trading almost 5% higher than the previous low.

Nonetheless, the apex coin is edging closer to ending September with significant increases. It is worth noting that August ended down by 6%, casting a bearish outlook on the next month. Previous records also revealed that the largest cryptocurrency registers huge losses during the ninth month, branding it the most bearish.

An outlook noted these factors, highlighted readings from several indicators, and suggested a drop below $100k. However, current trading action indicates that this never happened. BTC is edging closer to ending the ninth month with gains exceeding 5%.

Interestingly, the much-anticipated Federal Reserve rate cut failed to have the desired impact on the coin as earlier predicted. The asset rose to a high of $117,968, gaining less than 2% before retracements started.

Nonetheless, there are other indicators that could raise concerns. One such is the recent weakening of the spot market. Several analyses resounded this trend, noting how it may affect further price movement.

The apex coin received a huge boost from exchange-traded funds over the last thirty days. Volume into ETFs was significantly higher than the previous month. These investment funds post a volume of $150 billion and a net inflow of $3 billion.

Bitcoin Gears for October

Bitcoin is poised for a strong start to its tenth month, following its recent rebound. However, fundamentals suggest that this bid may face a likely hindrance.

The likelihood of the US government shutting down has risen to a new high as there no major breakthrough on action to halt it. The US Congress continues to deliberate on how to move further with the appropriation bill, but has yet to reach a consensus.

However, many analysts argue that the shutdown will have little to no impact on the crypto market. Previous data offer a differing opinion. For example, BTC lost over 10% during the 2018 shutdown. A repeat of this trend will have far-reaching consequences for the apex coin.

Nonetheless, a recent report suggests that over 900k civil servants will go unpaid during the duration of inactivity. These individuals will likely tap into their savings to get through this period. Those who hold crypto will do the same, causing significant selloffs.

However, Jim Kramer suggests that the effect may not be strong stocks. He added that the United States has just raised its public debt ceiling, so payments on government bonds are safe. If this holds true, the crypto market may not be significantly affected.

Nonetheless, one effect every analyst and market observers agree on is the delay in the release of key macrostatistics such as inflation, labor market, and the Fed’s decision to cut rates.

1-day Chart Blare Warnings

Amid the impending green close for September, previous price movements suggest a high probability of further retracements in October. It is worth noting that since July, the apex coin has consistently breached the $120k resistance. However, this did not play out over the last 30 days as BTC failed to break above the $118k wall.

A dominant trait of a long-term uptrend coming to an end is the gradual decline in its highs. The apex coin must flip the $118k barrier to break out of the current trend. Nonetheless, the asset continues to see weak spot volumes, a trend that became more pronounced over the last 30 days.

If current trading conditions remain the same, the largest cryptocurrency may slip lower, and a drop below $100k may happen.

However, several proponents expressed conviction that Bitcoin will surge to $150k. Records show that October is a bullish month, with the apex con gaining over 15% on average. A surge to the target price will see the coin post gains exceeding 30%, which is within bounds as the highest gain during th tenth month is 53%.

Nonetheless, indicators on the 1-day chart points to an increased likelihood of such hike. The moving avearge convergence divergence prints buy signals, showing a crossover nearing completion. A divergence will signal further increases.

Additionally, BTC tested it bollinger bands last week. It retraced to the lower band and briefly slipping it. It is at the middle band at the time of writing, indicating that buyback continues. It may continue upward, nearing the upper band above the $118k resistance.

However, the relative strength index reveals a spike in buying volume. It is at 53, indicating room for further increases in the coming days.

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