Bleak forecasts for Bitcoin: are they accurate?

A grim forecast regarding the price of Bitcoin is circulating. In fact, today, which is the last Friday of the month, options on BTC and ETH worth a staggering 16 billion dollars are expiring. 

According to some analysts, this is destined to give another jolt to the crypto markets. 

The expiration of BTC options

The point is that once the options expire, they can no longer be used. 

So anyone holding those 16 billion dollars in options on BTC must use them today, or forever forgo using them, and since purchasing them had a cost, more than one holder might be tempted to use them.

The problem is that the peak of put options, which allow selling at a predetermined price, is set at a price of $100,000, which is significantly less than the current $109,000. However, it would make little sense to sell at $100,000 with a put option if one can sell spot at $109,000, but this latter figure can still fluctuate throughout the day. 

However, there is also a peak slightly more than half of the main one set at a price of $110,000, and it seems quite likely that at least those options will be used today, as they could allow, for example, selling at $110,000 and then perhaps buying back at $109,000.

The impact on the price of Bitcoin (BTC)

The first consequence, easily predictable, is an increase in volatility.

In theory, this in itself might not be a problem, because volatility can be both upwards and downwards, but at a time like this, it seems more likely that the downward trend might prevail. 

Therefore, if there is sustained volatility today, it is possible that this could lead to a further decline in the price of Bitcoin. 

The fact is that today’s options expirations are, in terms of size, one of the largest monthly events of all 2025 in crypto derivatives, therefore the effect on the markets could be particularly sustained. 

It should also be added that the put/call ratio, equal to 0.70, actually indicates a slight bullish inclination among traders, but it might not be enough. 

Adding to all this is the fact that at this moment the crypto market, according to analysts at Greeks.live, is “fragile and without bids,” following recent liquidations, thus making a bearish tendency more likely. 

The bleak forecasts on BTC

In general, two bearish forecasts are circulating. 

The first, in the medium-short term, suggests that the price of Bitcoin could even drop to $90,000 within a few days. 

The second, in the medium or medium-long term, even argues that it is entering a full bear-market. 

However, there is at least one dynamic currently underway that also allows us to envision a different future. 

This is about the trend of the Dollar Index. In the medium term, the price trend of Bitcoin is inversely correlated with that of the Dollar Index, therefore if DXY rises, the price of Bitcoin tends to fall. 

In fact, in the short term, not only is the Dollar Index continuing to rise, but it is absolutely likely that it may continue to do so for a few more days. 

Compared to the short-term forecasts on the Dollar Index, the prediction of Bitcoin at $90,000 seems absolutely justified. 

The Dollar Index (DXY)

Instead, in the medium term, it is possible that the upward trend of the Dollar Index may reverse. 

It should be noted that DXY was actually within a descending channel that had been ongoing since January until just a few days ago. It is true that in recent days it has exited this channel, but it could also re-enter it within a few weeks. 

The point is that the trend of the Dollar Index in this 2025 closely resembles that of 2017, when indeed it rose in October. However, at the beginning of November, the rise ended, and in fact, in the middle of the month, it began a significant decline that only ended in February of the following year. 

All things considered, if the Dollar Index from now until February 2026 were to continue following a trend similar to that of 2017, it could rise just above 100 points in the coming days, stabilize in that range until mid-November, and then begin a dive towards 94 points. 

The recovery of the bull run: myth or reality?

In the hypothetical case where a similar scenario should occur, the bull run of Bitcoin could resume. 

Indeed, in a historical moment like this, 94 points for the Dollar Index would be a true historical low. In reality, it would not be an absolute record, but only the lowest peak of the last four years. However, given the trend of the last 18 years, it would be a record. 

In fact, starting from November 2007, the Dollar Index fluctuates within an ascending channel that, with virtually no significant exceptions, is still persisting today.

The lower line of that channel is currently positioned around 96.5 points, therefore a downward breach of this threshold would constitute the first major breach in the last 18 years of the ascending channel. 

To be honest, in July DXY briefly reached 96.3 points, but at that time the lower line of the ascending channel was set at 96 points, and that peak lasted very briefly. 

Such a historic breakout could, on the contrary, lead Bitcoin to rise towards new all-time highs, perhaps even well above the current high set at $126,000.

It should also be remembered that during the rest of 2018 the Dollar Index rose, so one might also expect something similar from March 2026 onwards.