Will Trump pardon Sam Bankman-Fried as chances rise to 16% now?

Odds for Sam Bankman-Fried’s release have increased overnight as speculation that Donald Trump could pardon the former FTX CEO gains momentum.

Prediction market odds for a potential Sam Bankman-Fried (SBF) pardon have surged sharply, signaling renewed speculation that former U.S. President Donald Trump could intervene in one of crypto’s most notorious legal sagas. Data from Polymarket shows that the forecast for “SBF released from custody in 2025?” recently increased from 4% to 13%, before dropping to its current 12%.

While overall interest in Trump-related markets remains high, other Polymarket bets have cooled. A separate market asking “Who will Donald Trump pardon in 2025?” saw SBF’s share slip from 9% to 7%, even as total wagers on his case reached $356,045. Notably, Sam Bankman-Fried’s official X account has retweeted a Polymarket post referencing his potential release, fueling online speculation about his hopes for clemency.

Reactions from the crypto community have been swift and divided. Prominent investigator Coffeezilla wrote on X, “I’M QUITTING IF HE LETS SBF OUT,” while other industry leaders called a possible pardon “unacceptable,” arguing that SBF’s actions caused widespread damage and mistrust in the digital asset sector.

Experts compare Sam Bankman-fried’s case to CZ 

The renewed odds come shortly after Trump’s controversial pardon of Changpeng Zhao, the former Binance CEO, which drew strong backlash from lawmakers and regulators.

One industry leader noted, however, that CZ’s case was notably different; he pleaded guilty to compliance failures, not fraud or money laundering. SBF, by contrast, was convicted on seven counts of fraud and conspiracy for misappropriating billions in customer funds through FTX and its sister firm, Alameda Research.

Now serving a 25-year sentence, Bankman-Fried continues to maintain his innocence. In a recent prison interview, he said handing control of FTX to CEO John Ray III was “the single biggest mistake I made by far.” His parents have also joined his legal defense, alleging that law firm Sullivan & Cromwell improperly took control of the company during bankruptcy proceedings.

Although SBF’s legal team has filed an appeal, a pardon remains his most realistic route to freedom before 2026. His appeal hearing, set for Nov 4, is unlikely to deliver a swift ruling, making Trump’s political decision-making a key factor in his fate.