Bitcoin Drop Fuels Doubts Over $250K Year End Target

Analysts are split on whether Bitcoin will recover in 2026 or face further weakness. Meanwhile, semiconductor firm Sequans sold 30% of its Bitcoin holdings to repay half of its debt, and called it a strategic move to strengthen its balance sheet. The decision sent Sequans’ shares tumbling more than 16%.

Bitcoin Loses Steam

Bitcoin’s price seems to be losing momentum after weeks of consolidation, which casts some doubt on the more optimistic predictions that it could surge toward $250,000 before the end of 2025. The world’s leading crypto slipped to a four-month low of around $100,800 this week, and analysts are now divided on whether the current cycle still has enough strength to produce another major rally before the year is out—or if the next real uptrend will only arrive in 2026.

ShapeShift analyst Houston Morgan said in an interview that he does not expect Bitcoin to climb higher than $125,000 in 2025, which falls just short of the $126,000 all-time high that was reached on Oct. 4. Morgan suggested that Bitcoin’s recent price action has become too dependent on political headlines, particularly those tied to US President Donald Trump, and that a genuine bull run may not resume until the asset decouples from such macro correlations.

BTC’s price action over the past month (Source: CoinMarketCap)

At the same time, data from Bitfinex shows deepening selling pressure as long-term Bitcoin holders continue to distribute their coins. The exchange’s analysts pointed out that this ongoing outflow reflects “broader signs of exhaustion” in the market and warned that unless Bitcoin can recover above $116,000 soon, the price could face more downside into the end of the year.

Historical trends show that when prices stagnate for prolonged periods, sentiment deteriorates and forced selling becomes more common—a risk amplified by the current market mood. In fact, the Crypto Fear & Greed Index fell sharply to 21 out of 100 on Tuesday, signaling “Extreme Fear” among traders. At press time, the score stood at 23, which also falls under  the ‘Extreme Fear’ category.

Crypto Fear and Greed Index

Despite the gloom, some people in the industry still hold out hope for an explosive finish to the year. BitMine chair Tom Lee and BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes reiterated on the Bankless podcast that they believe Bitcoin can still hit between $200,000 and $250,000 before 2026. 

Galaxy Digital CEO Mike Novogratz, however, warned that such a move will require “the planets to align.” Looking ahead, analysts are still split on 2026’s outlook. Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan expects it to be a strong recovery year, while Andrew Lokenauth predicts a bear market similar to previous mid-cycle declines. Veteran trader Peter Brandt also recently added to the cautious tone by suggesting Bitcoin could even revisit levels as low as $60,000.

Sequans Sells Bitcoin to Cut Debt

Shares of semiconductor firm Sequans tumbled more than 16% on Tuesday after the company sold 30% of its Bitcoin holdings to redeem half of its convertible debt. The move was described by the company as a “strategic asset reallocation,” and it raised questions about its long-term Bitcoin accumulation plans, which previously aimed to reach 100,000 BTC over the next five years.

Sequans CEO Georges Karam said that the sale was a tactical decision made to strengthen the company’s balance sheet amid challenging market conditions. “Our Bitcoin treasury strategy and our deep conviction in Bitcoin remain unchanged,” Karam stated. “This transaction was a tactical decision aimed at unlocking shareholder value given current market conditions.” He added that the sale “strengthens our financial foundation and removes certain debt covenant constraints,” which allows Sequans to focus on strategic initiatives while still maintaining Bitcoin as a long-term reserve asset.

The sale reduced Sequans’ Bitcoin holdings from 3,234 BTC to 2,264 BTC, with proceeds used to cut its debt from $189 million to $94.5 million. However, investors still reacted negatively to the announcement, sending shares in Sequans (SQNS) down 16.6% to $5.92. The stock is now down close to 89% from its 2025 high of $53.90.

Sequans share price over the past 24 hours (Source: Google Finance)

The sell-off now adds to growing skepticism surrounding corporate Bitcoin treasury strategies, especially for firms without strong underlying financials. While many companies initially saw share prices surge after announcing Bitcoin purchases, a number have since declined sharply as enthusiasm cooled. 

Sequans’ recent sale was first identified by crypto analysts last week after a 2,264 BTC transfer was spotted on-chain. The company now ranks as the 33rd largest corporate holder of Bitcoin, slipping four places since its previous acquisition in mid-July.