When are the German/Eurozone flash HCOB PMIs and how could they affect EUR/USD?

German/ Eurozone flash PMIs Overview

The preliminary German and Eurozone flash HCOB Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) data for October is due for release today at 07:30 and 08:00 GMT, respectively.

Amongst the Euro area economies, the German and the composite Eurozone PMI reports hold more relevance, in terms of their impact on the European currency and the related markets as well.

The flash Composite PMI for Germany is expected to have dropped to 51.6 from 52.0 in September. Moderate growth in the service sector activity and the continued contraction in the manufacturing sector are expected to have weighed on the overall business growth. The Services PMI is seen falling to 51.0 from the prior reading of 51.5. Meanwhile, the Manufacturing PMI is estimated to have declined at a steady pace to 49.5.

The forecast for the Eurozone flash Composite PMI shows that it dropped to 51.0 from 51.2 in September. The Services PMI is expected to have expanded, but at a moderate pace to 51.1, with the Manufacturing PMI declining at a faster pace to 49.5.

How could German/ Eurozone flash PMIs affect EUR/USD?

EUR/USD demonstrates a sideways trend amid a Symmetrical Triangle chart pattern formation. The upward border of the above-mentioned chart pattern is placed from the September 17 high around 1.1920, while the downward border is plotted from the August low near 1.1390.

The major currency pair trades close to the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) from the past few trading weeks, suggesting indecisiveness among investors.

The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) oscillates inside the 40.00-60.00 range, indicating a sharp volatility contraction.

Looking up, the EUR/USD pair could revisit its four-year high around 1.1920 if it breaks above the October 17 high of 1.1728. On the downside, the August low around 1.1400 will be the key support zone for the pair in case the pair slides below the October 9 low of 1.1542.

Economic Indicator

HCOB Composite PMI

The Composite Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI), released on a monthly basis by S&P Global and Hamburg Commercial Bank (HCOB), is a leading indicator gauging private-business activity in the Eurozone for both the manufacturing and services sectors. The data is derived from surveys to senior executives. Each response is weighted according to the size of the company and its contribution to total manufacturing or services output accounted for by the sub-sector to which that company belongs. Survey responses reflect the change, if any, in the current month compared to the previous month and can anticipate changing trends in official data series such as Gross Domestic Product (GDP), industrial production, employment and inflation. The index varies between 0 and 100, with levels of 50.0 signaling no change over the previous month. A reading above 50 indicates that the private economy is generally expanding, a bullish sign for the Euro (EUR). Meanwhile, a reading below 50 signals that activity is generally declining, which is seen as bearish for EUR.