BTC Price Clears $112,000 Wall, Where To Next?

Bitcoin (BTC) has surged past the $112,000 resistance that capped its performance for weeks, now trading at $115,104. 

On-chain data highlights two key trends: a rising holder retention rate and an uptick in the estimated leverage ratio, both pointing to strong hodling sentiment. These signals suggest that long-term conviction remains intact, and if buying momentum sustains, BTC could soon attempt to reclaim the $120,000 level.

Bitcoin Holder Conviction Hits 2025 High

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According to data from Glassnode, Bitcoin (BTC) holders continue to display conviction, with the coin’s Holder Retention Rate climbing steadily since August 6. At press time, the metric stands at 80.49%, marking its year-to-date high.

The Holder Retention Rate tracks the percentage of addresses that maintain a balance of BTC across consecutive 30-day periods. Simply, it reflects how many investors continue to hold onto their coins month after month. 

BTC’s climbing Holder Retention Rate is notable because it traded in a sideways pattern for most of August, struggling to gain momentum. Such lackluster price action usually prompts traders to exit positions. 

Instead, the steady rally in BTC’s  Holder Retention Rate shows that most investors opted to ride out the consolidation phase, confirming their long-term outlook on the asset.

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Bitcoin ELR Hits Yearly High, Traders Signal Stronger Conviction

Bullish sentiment among its derivatives traders has also strengthened, highlighted by the coin’s surging estimated leverage ratio across all exchanges. At press time, this is 0.26, also sitting at its highest level since the year began.  

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The ELR measures the average leverage traders apply to BTC positions on exchanges. It is calculated by dividing open interest by the exchange’s reserve for that asset.

A declining ELR suggests traders are reducing exposure, signaling caution over the asset’s near-term prospects and avoiding high-risk positions.

Conversely, a rising ELR shows that traders are increasing leverage, pointing to stronger conviction and greater risk appetite.

Therefore, the uptick in BTC’s ELR indicates growing confidence in the market, with leveraged traders positioning for further gains.

Bitcoin Rally Hinges on Conviction — $119,000 in Sight, $122,000 Next

If retention remains high and derivatives traders maintain their bullish conviction, BTC’s current rally could strengthen and push toward $119,367. A breach of this barrier could propel the leading coin to $122,190.

On the other hand, a decline in bullish conviction could trigger a revisit of the $111,961 low.