Bitcoin Net Liquidations Stay Negative Near $40M: Analyst Warns Downside Still In Play

Bitcoin is holding above the $110,000 level after a turbulent Monday that saw billions of dollars in liquidations across the crypto market. The sharp correction erased much of last week’s gains and reminded investors of the volatility that continues to define this cycle. Despite the heavy selling pressure, BTC has managed to stabilize near a key liquidity zone, where bulls and bears are now battling for control.

The mood across the market remains cautious as traders weigh the potential for further downside. Some analysts warn that Bitcoin could retest lower support levels if bearish momentum strengthens, while others argue that the retrace is part of a healthy reset after an overheated rally.

Top analyst Axel Adler shared insights revealing that the risk of further bearish pressure from liquidations is medium. Data shows that net liquidations remain negative, reflecting ongoing long wipeouts that continue to weigh on price action. However, Adler noted that the liquidation intensity is not at cascade levels, meaning that while headwinds persist, the market lacks the fuel for a deep liquidation-driven collapse.

Liquidation Risk: Pressure Without Cascade

According to Axel Adler, Bitcoin’s recent downturn is being shaped by ongoing long liquidations. Net liquidations remain negative near −$40 million, underscoring the fact that many overleveraged positions are still being flushed out of the market. This persistent wave of long wipeouts is applying steady downside pressure, preventing BTC from mounting a strong recovery after its recent rejection above $115K.

Despite these pressures, Adler highlights a crucial point: the Liquidation Intensity Z-Score (365d) is at a neutral to moderate level. This signals that while liquidations are forcing traders out of their positions, they are not large enough to trigger a cascading selloff. In other words, the current market drawdown is painful, but it lacks the systemic fuel for a deep liquidation-driven collapse similar to what has occurred during prior cycle tops.

This distinction is vital for understanding Bitcoin’s current market structure. While headwinds remain as the market forces leveraged traders to reset, the underlying trend shows resilience. Because liquidations aren’t extremely intense, BTC could find stability once it clears out the weak hands.

Adler notes that the market now sits at a crossroads: continued liquidation pressure could grind prices lower in the short term, but without cascading risk, Bitcoin has the capacity to consolidate and rebuild momentum.

As fresh capital enters and the market clears out leveraged excess, it may support a healthier, more sustainable advance in the months ahead. In this context, don’t view the correction solely as a bearish signal. Instead, it reflects a broader market reset—necessary for removing excess leverage and laying the groundwork for Bitcoin’s next decisive move.

Price Action Details

Bitcoin is trading near $113,025, struggling to reclaim levels above $115K after the recent selloff. The chart shows BTC moving below its 50-day and 100-day moving averages (MAs), both of which now act as resistance around $114,600–$115,000. The 200-day MA, currently near $115,077, reinforces this resistance cluster, signaling that BTC must overcome heavy technical barriers to regain bullish momentum.

On the downside, BTC found temporary support at $112,900, with buyers stepping in to prevent further losses. If this level fails, the next support lies closer to $110K, which aligns with prior consolidation zones and liquidity pools. A break below could open the door toward $108K, intensifying bearish sentiment.

Price action also reveals lower highs forming since the rejection near $118K, highlighting fading bullish strength. Still, the broader structure suggests BTC remains in a consolidation phase rather than a complete trend reversal, as long as $110K holds.

In the short term, traders will be watching if Bitcoin can reclaim the 115K zone, which would signal renewed momentum.

Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView