Why Solana (SOL) is set to rally 60%

Although Solana (SOL) is facing increased selling pressure in line with broader cryptocurrency market sentiment, technical indicators suggest the asset may be preparing for a notable rally.

Specifically, prominent online analyst TradingShot has observed that Solana has been trading within a rising channel since June, which forms part of a broader Fibonacci channel that began in early April.

In a TradingView post on September 22, the analyst noted that after gaining more than 63% in its last bullish leg, SOL is now undergoing a pullback, mirroring a previous move where prices retraced to the 50-day moving average (MA) and the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level before resuming their upward trajectory.

The analysis points to a similar setup now forming, with the price likely to test support around the 50-day MA before rebounding. If this pattern repeats, Solana could rally roughly 63% in the medium term, potentially pushing the token toward the $310 level.

At the same time, momentum indicators, including the RSI, show cooling conditions, which could allow room for another leg higher once the correction stabilizes.

As long as the channel remains intact, the technical structure supports continued upside for SOL, though broader market sentiment will remain an important factor.

In the short term, traders should expect potential sell-offs given the current market structure. Solana is also among the assets with scheduled unlocks, a move that has historically triggered downward pressure. 

This week, 502,930 SOL, worth about $115.9 million, will be unlocked. While this represents only 0.09% of the circulating supply, the value is significant enough to potentially sway prices.

SOL price analysis 

At press time, Solana was trading at $223, down nearly 7% in the past 24 hours and more than 5% over the past week.

Despite the short-term weakness, Solana is showing resilience above both its 50-day simple moving average (SMA) of $202.30 and its 200-day SMA of $165.93. This alignment signals a strong bullish structure, with the price comfortably holding above key support levels that often define medium- and long-term trends.

Meanwhile, the 14-day RSI at 59.77 sits just below the overbought threshold, indicating positive momentum without being overstretched. This suggests further upside potential remains before the asset risks hitting overextended levels.

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