New ATH for Bitcoin or Harsh Rejection Ahead? (BTC Price Analysis)

Bitcoin is approaching a potential new all-time high, steadily advancing toward the $123K mark. Overall, both technical indicators and sentiment data point to continued upside potential, suggesting that the rally still has momentum behind it.

By ShayanMarkets

The Daily Chart

On the daily timeframe, Bitcoin continues to follow a sharp ascending channel, consistently forming higher highs and higher lows since mid-April. The recent bullish crossover between the 100-day and 200-day moving averages further reinforces the bullish market structure.

With the price nearing the key $123K resistance level, many traders anticipate a strong breakout and potential continuation of the rally. For now, the lower trendline of the channel is acting as dynamic support, helping the price push higher.

However, if this channel support fails due to a sudden pullback, the nearby $110K level, along with the 100-day moving average located nearby, could serve as a critical support zone, potentially triggering a rebound and continuation toward fresh highs.

The 4-Hour Chart

The 4-hour chart suggests that Bitcoin has clearly shifted from a bearish or sideways phase to a bullish structure, breaking out of the descending channel after nearly a month of consolidation. The asset is now following an upward trendline, consistently creating lows as it pushes upward.

The RSI remains above the 50 level, reinforcing the bullish momentum and increasing the likelihood of a retest and potential breakout above the $123K high. Still, if a pullback occurs, the $116K support zone could act as a key area for a rebound and continuation of the uptrend.

On-chain Analysis

Bitcoin Open Interest

Open interest (OI) is a key metric in derivatives markets that reflects the total number of outstanding futures and options contracts. Typically, when Bitcoin’s price rises, open interest also increases as more traders open long positions, expecting the rally to continue. This behavior is often driven by growing market participation, increased leverage, and overall bullish sentiment.

However, over the past couple of weeks, Bitcoin’s price has been gradually climbing while open interest has been steadily declining. This divergence suggests that the current rally might not be fueled by leveraged positions or aggressive speculation, but rather by spot demand or short covering.

This drop in OI despite rising prices could point to a healthier, less speculative rally, but it also means that if momentum slows, there might be fewer participants to defend key levels quickly.