Netflix (NFLX) Stock: JPMorgan Sees 35% Upside After NFL Upfront News

TLDR

• Netflix announced it will air five NFL games in the 2026 season, up from two, including Thanksgiving Eve, Christmas Day, and a Week 18 game.
• The deal is part of a four-year extension with the NFL running through the 2029–2030 season.
• Netflix is also expanding its ad-supported tier to 15 new countries.
• JPMorgan analyst Doug Anmuth has an Overweight rating with a price target implying around 35% upside.
• NFLX stock is down 7% year to date after Q1 earnings disappointed investors.

Netflix (NFLX) stock is down 7% year to date, but the company is making moves that Wall Street thinks could change that picture.

Netflix, Inc., NFLX

At its New York upfront presentation this week, Netflix announced it will carry five NFL games during the 2026 season — three more than before. The lineup includes an international game in Australia, a Thanksgiving Eve game, two Christmas Day games, and a Week 18 matchup. Netflix will also host the NFL Honors during Super Bowl week.

The deal is part of a four-year extension with the NFL, running through the 2029–2030 season. It gives Netflix a more consistent NFL presence rather than a one-off holiday slot.

The NFL also licensed two additional games to Fox and one to NBC for next season. CBS picked up rights to move a Sunday afternoon game into a prime-time Saturday night slot. The broader spread came after criticism from lawmakers and rights holders over too many games shifting to streaming.

What JPMorgan Is Saying

JPMorgan analyst Doug Anmuth reiterated an Overweight rating on Netflix stock following the upfront announcement. His price target of $118 implies roughly 35% upside from current levels.

Anmuth wrote that Netflix’s upfront announcements show “continued progress across Netflix’s multi-year journey toward building a scaled advertising strategy delivering measurable outcomes for marketers.” He also described Netflix as becoming “Global TV.”

He noted that live events and sports should keep pulling in subscribers to the ad-supported tier and drive more ad revenue over time.

KeyBanc analyst Justin Patterson flagged that some investors had expected Netflix to raise its full-year 2026 revenue guidance following a U.S. price increase — and that not happening weighed on sentiment after earnings.

Q1 Earnings Dragged the Stock

Netflix reported Q1 earnings in mid-May and the results fell short of expectations. The company kept its full-year 2026 revenue guidance at $43.5 billion to $44.5 billion rather than raising it.

Full-year operating margin guidance came in at 31.5%, below the 32% analysts had penciled in. There’s a view that a “breakup fee” received from the failed Paramount (PSKY) acquisition bid is covering up higher content amortization costs.

Longtime company chair Reed Hastings also announced he was stepping down, closing a chapter in Netflix’s history.

Netflix stock has continued to drift lower since the earnings report.

On the ad side, Netflix announced it is expanding its ad-supported tier to 15 new countries, including Austria, Belgium, Denmark, Ireland, the Netherlands, Norway, Sweden, Switzerland, and several others across Southeast Asia and Latin America.

The company is also testing a personalization tool that adjusts ads based on viewing behavior — a step toward making its ad product more attractive to major marketers.

Netflix stock was trading at $87.96 as of Thursday morning.

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