Philippines must build ‘credible deterrence’ amid SCS tensions, AFP says

THE Armed Forces of the Philippines (AFP) must strengthen its modernization efforts and develop a “credible deterrent” capability amid increasing tensions in the South China Sea (SCS) and emerging cyber and information threats, an official said on Thursday.

Speaking at a forum organized by Stratbase ADR Institute, AFP Deputy Chief of Staff Arvin R. Lagamon said that while there is no open conflict, the country is already facing political, economic, cyber, and informational warfare.

“Our chief of staff of the AFP always tells us… we should have a mindset that we are already at war. Not yet a kinetic war, but the political war, the economic war, and more importantly, the cyber and informational war is already going on,” Mr. Lagamon, who was speaking on behalf of AFP Chief of Staff Romeo S. Brawner, Jr., said.

He cited the “illegal, coercive, aggressive, deceptive, destructive, and bullying” actions in the South China Sea as among the challenges confronting the country.

He stressed that modern threats now cut across maritime, air, land, cyber, space, information domains, making it necessary for the AFP to transform into a multi-domain force. “Deterrence cannot be symbolic. It must be credible,” he said.

Mr. Lagamon added that emerging technologies such as artificial intelligence drones, and autonomous systems are reshaping modern warfare, while cyber defense and highly skilled personnel have become increasingly important to national security.

He emphasized that partnerships with allies and like-minded nations remain crucial in preserving regional stability and the rules-based order in the Indo-Pacific.

He also called for national unity in defending the country’s sovereignty. “We may be divided politically, culturally, and religiously, but when it comes to the defense of this country, we should be united as a people,” he said.

Meanwhile, German Ambassador to the Philippines Andreas Michael Pfaffernoschke said in the same forum, “credible deterrence” has once again become central to global security debates, as states face renewed geopolitical tensions in Europe and the Indo-Pacific.

Recalling Cold War concepts of deterrence, Mr. Pfaffernoschke said the idea has re-emerged in modern defense policy due to rising global instability.

“Today, deterrence is back on the international agenda. It is back in Germany as well as in the Philippines. The reason is our security is at stake more than in many decades,” he said.

He pointed to Russia’s war in Ukraine as a major shift in Europe’s security landscape, stressing that “Russia’s military buildup is threatening Europe and the world,” and underscoring the need for NATO and European allies to strengthen their own defense capacities.

He also warned against attempts to change international order “by the use of force anywhere in the world.”

On the Philippines, the German envoy said the Armed Forces are undergoing a major transformation anchored on the Comprehensive Archipelagic Defense Concept.

He emphasized that modernization and defense cooperation are key to strengthening resilience, noting that “modernizing armed forces can hardly be achieved in isolation,” and underscored the importance of partnerships between like-minded countries in building credible deterrence.

Systems Engineering and Modernization Office Chief Ivan DR. Papera, meanwhile, said the country’s military modernization efforts must be assessed based on persistent capability gaps, operational constraints, and emerging opportunities.

Mr. Papera said the most pressing limitations remains funding, which forces the AFP to prioritize between internal security and external defense requirements.

“The limited budget… we are forced to strictly prioritize our requirements… and this leads to our piecemeal approach of acquiring our capabilities,” he said, adding that fragmented procurement has resulted in incomplete systems and integration challenges across platforms sourced from different countries.

He also pointed to systemic issues on procurement, logistics, and sustainment, noting difficulties in integrating acquired systems into a fully joint capability.

“We bought a mixture of different capabilities from different nations, eventually leading us to problems of integrating these systems,” Mr. Papera said.

Mr. Papera said modernization must shift from a procurement-focused approach toward a more integrated capability development system.

“The key question is no longer whether we need modernization… the real question is we need a modernization that can align policy recruitment, industry finance and operations into a coherent system that delivers credible developments for the armed forces,” he said. — Pexcel John Bacon