Nvidia (NVDA) Stock Climbs as China H200 Door Cracks Open — Wolfe Calls It Top AI Pick

TLDR

• Nvidia stock rose ~2.3% after reports the U.S. cleared roughly 10 Chinese companies to buy H200 chips, including Alibaba, Tencent, ByteDance, and JD.com
• Each approved buyer can purchase up to 75,000 H200 chips directly from Nvidia or through approved intermediaries such as Lenovo and Foxconn
• CEO Jensen Huang joined a White House delegation to Beijing after a personal invitation from President Trump — he wasn’t originally on the list
• No deals have been signed yet; Chinese firms pulled back from placing orders following guidance from Beijing
• Wolfe Research reiterated Nvidia as its top AI chip pick, calling it “our best idea” despite six weeks of underperformance versus peers

Nvidia (NVDA) stock rose approximately 2.3% on Wednesday after Reuters reported the U.S. government has cleared roughly 10 Chinese companies to purchase the H200 chip — Nvidia’s second-most powerful AI processor currently available for export.

NVIDIA Corporation, NVDA

The stock was trading around $225.83, up $5.05 on the day.

Approved buyers include Alibaba, Tencent, ByteDance, and JD.com. Distributors Lenovo and Foxconn also received the green light. Each buyer is permitted to purchase up to 75,000 chips, either directly from Nvidia or through approved intermediaries.

CEO Jensen Huang traveled to Beijing as part of a U.S. trade delegation. He wasn’t originally on the list but joined after a direct invitation from President Trump, who reportedly picked him up in Alaska en route to a summit with Chinese President Xi Jinping.

The visit is widely seen as an effort to restart Nvidia’s stalled China business.

No Deals Signed Yet

Despite the approvals, nothing has been completed. Chinese companies have pulled back from placing orders following guidance from Beijing. Pressure is reportedly building there to block or closely examine any purchases.

The back-and-forth leaves Nvidia in a holding pattern — approvals in hand, but no chips moving yet.

Before U.S. export restrictions tightened, Nvidia held around 95% of China’s advanced chip market. China once accounted for 13% of Nvidia’s total revenue. Huang has estimated China’s AI market could be worth $50 billion this year alone.

Chinese tech stocks also moved on the news. Alibaba rose 8.18%, JD.com jumped 7.24%, and Tencent gained 4.80%.

Wolfe Keeps Nvidia as Top AI Chip Pick

Separately, Wolfe Research reiterated its bullish stance on Nvidia ahead of earnings season, keeping an Outperform rating and naming it the firm’s top idea in AI chips.

Analyst Chris Caso said concerns around cloud capital expenditure that weighed on AI compute stocks earlier this year have largely faded, with hyperscaler spending estimates continuing to rise.

Wolfe wrote that “hyperscalers simply have no choice but to spend,” pointing to agentic AI as a technology shift the major cloud providers can’t afford to miss.

Nvidia has lagged AI compute peers over the past six weeks despite gaining roughly 28%, with Broadcom, Marvell, and AMD posting stronger runs during that stretch.

Wolfe attributed the underperformance mainly to a lack of 2027 revenue visibility. Competitors have offered clearer forward guidance, giving investors more to work with.

The firm noted that Nvidia’s $1 trillion disclosure at its GTC conference didn’t capture all opportunities, including new business yet to be booked and contributions from the Rubin pod architecture. Wolfe said clearer 2027 guidance could help Nvidia close the performance gap versus peers.

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