Prediction markets weigh hardware flaws against Nvidia’s quarterly earnings streak

Investors are waiting for Nvidia’s results on May 20, but concerns about problems with its newest graphics cards are creating uncertainty about what the results will show.

The chipmaker will report first-quarter fiscal 2027 earnings next week. Betting platforms tracking business outcomes expect strong results.

On Polymarket, users price in about a 97% chance of a beat, while Kalshi shows similar optimism across gaming and large data center segments.

However, difficulties with Nvidia’s latest graphics card software are raising concerns.

The company released updated GeForce 595.71 drivers to address previous issues, but consumers are reporting new ones.

The upgrade appears to limit the amount of electrical power that RTX 50 series GPUs can draw.

Because of power constraints, these “Blackwell” architecture cards are not operating as effectively as they should.

Tests show the cards are running at speeds below 3,000 megahertz, which lowers performance in video games and other applications.

Some analysts think Nvidia may be limiting power to prevent overheating in the 12V-2×6 power connector, but the company has not given an official explanation for the issue.

Strong forecasts backed by customer spending

Wall Street analysts expect Nvidia to report $78.8 billion in revenue and earnings of $1.77 per share.

According to James Schneider, a Goldman Sachs analyst who studies tech companies, the final sales figure could be about $2 billion higher than most forecasts.

Several signals indicate that the bullish expectations may be justified.

The four largest users of Nvidia’s data center chips, Alphabet, Amazon, Meta, and Microsoft, will spend more than $700 billion on equipment and infrastructure by 2026.

That significant investment could result in large orders for Nvidia’s goods.

Sales of memory chips also point to strong demand. SanDisk recently reported quarterly revenue of $5.9 billion, which was higher than what analysts expected.

Since memory chips work together with graphics processors, SanDisk’s strong results suggest that demand for GPU-related technology across the market remains healthy.

Competition and market uncertainty remain concerns

However, betting markets do not always show the full picture.

The average person placing bets on these platforms does not have access to private information that is not already reflected in Nvidia’s share price.

People who closely follow supply chains and huge investment firms, rather than casual bettors, provide the most valuable insights.

Another complicating factor is that major technology companies are developing their own customized chips.

Google has TPU processors, while Amazon has Trainium chips, both of which are specifically tailored for artificial intelligence work.

If these companies begin to use their own hardware rather than purchasing from Nvidia, it may reduce future revenues.

Companies that build servers are also adapting to the market shift. Dell, HPE, Lenovo, and Supermicro need to offer more than just Nvidia chips to win customers.

They’re bundling software tools and consulting services to help businesses manage the power consumption and cooling requirements of AI systems.

Dell recently announced $9 billion in income from AI-optimized servers, while Supermicro generated $10.2 billion in sales, with platforms based on AI graphics processors accounting for more than 80 percent.

Nvidia has consistently beaten its own projections in recent quarters.

The company’s strength comes from having the best graphics hardware, an established software platform called Cuda that developers rely on, and expertise in networking technology for data centers.

These advantages have kept Nvidia at the front of the pack as companies race to build AI systems.

When results are released on May 20, investors will focus on whether Nvidia’s financial performance and its $60.6 billion cash reserve can ease concerns about hardware issues and overall market uncertainty.

The AI industry is still in an early stage, and rating agencies have described it as having “very high” uncertainty because so much of it is still new and developing.

Issues with graphics cards and limits in the supply chain make the situation more complicated than it looks.

How Nvidia responds to these problems during its earnings call may matter as much as the financial results it reports.

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