Lawrence Jengar
May 14, 2026 06:39
CoinGecko’s analysis of Bitcoin returns reveals US holidays deliver 4x higher next-day gains than non-holidays. Mondays and New Year’s Day also outperform.
A 13-year study by CoinGecko reveals a surprising trend: Bitcoin (BTC) purchases made on U.S. federal holidays deliver significantly higher next-day returns than any other days on the calendar. The analysis, covering 4,753 days from 2013 to 2026, found that U.S. holidays averaged a +0.77% return the following day, four times higher than the +0.19% baseline for non-holidays.
Holidays like New Year’s Day, Columbus Day, and Christmas showed particularly strong next-day performance, with New Year’s Day leading the pack at an average +2.01% return and an 84.6% win rate (positive next-day performance in 11 of 13 years). This outperformance could be tied to broader market dynamics, such as January inflows, end-of-year tax positioning, and holiday-driven trading patterns.
Weekday Trends: Mondays and Wednesdays Lead
Outside of holidays, Mondays and Wednesdays stood out, each averaging a +0.38% next-day return. Notably, Thursdays were the only day to post a negative average (-0.09%). This subtle weekday effect contrasts starkly with the pronounced holiday premium, suggesting institutional and retail behavior may differ during non-typical trading windows.
Weekend vs. weekday differences proved negligible, with weekends averaging +0.22% next-day returns compared to weekdays at +0.21%. Unlike traditional markets, Bitcoin trades 24/7, nullifying structural anomalies tied to market closures.
Not All Holidays Are Equal
While holidays generally outperformed, some exceptions stand out. Martin Luther King Jr. Day (MLK Day) and Independence Day both posted negative next-day returns (-0.84% and -0.26%, respectively) and win rates below 50%. MLK Day was skewed by a January 2018 outlier, when Bitcoin plunged 18.65% amid the onset of a bear market. Even after adjusting for this, MLK Day remained the weakest holiday.
Veterans Day painted a nuanced picture. Its +1.75% average return appears strong but is driven by three large positive outliers. With a win rate of just 46.2%, traders might be better off focusing on median outcomes for this holiday.
Long-Term Implications: Holiday Premium Fades
For longer-term holders, the impact of purchase timing diminishes. Over a 365-day horizon, all days of the week clustered within a narrow annual return range of 142.15% to 144.56%. U.S. holidays still edged out non-holidays on one-year returns (157.12% vs. 142.96%), but this difference often reflects broader bull or bear market trends rather than a persistent holiday-specific effect.
Bitcoin’s current price of $79,822 (as of May 14, 2026) reflects its consolidation phase following a record-high near $126,080 in October 2025. This data underscores that while short-term entry timing may be tactically advantageous, larger structural factors like Bitcoin’s four-year halving cycle and institutional adoption dictate long-term performance.
Key Takeaways for Traders
For active traders, CoinGecko’s findings suggest that aligning purchases with U.S. holidays—or even just Mondays and Wednesdays—might provide a statistical edge, especially for short-term trades. However, the effect diminishes over longer timeframes, reinforcing the case for dollar-cost averaging (DCA) for long-term investors.
With Bitcoin facing resistance around $82,000, as reported on May 13, traders might look to leverage such timing insights for tactical advantage. That said, price levels and macroeconomic factors remain the dominant forces steering Bitcoin’s trajectory in 2026.
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Source: https://blockchain.news/news/best-bitcoin-days-holidays-mondays
